Sentences with phrase «atmospheric models predict»

It is our belief that «theory leads experiment» on climate change because all well - accepted atmospheric models predict a temperature rise.

They used 10 atmospheric models predicting how the West's climate will change by 2100.

* * * The evidence to support the theory of anthropogenic, or human - caused, climate change has been mounting since the mid-1950s, when atmospheric models predicted that growing levels of CO2 in the atmosphere would add to the natural «greenhouse effect» and lead to warming.

Not exact matches

The CSU researchers created a model that can accurately predict atmospheric river activity in the western U.S. three weeks from now.

Von Issendorff and his colleagues expect their findings will fine - tune models that explain and predict cloud formation and climate, atmospheric chemistry, and the evolution of water - rich objects in outer space, such as fledgling comets.

The team used the data from charcoal in coal to propose that the development of fire systems through this interval was controlled predominantly by the elevated atmospheric oxygen concentration (p (O2)-RRB- that mass balance models predict prevailed.

EWeLiNE combines these data with other atmospheric observations — from ground - based weather stations, radar and satellites — and sophisticated computer models predict power generation over the next 48 hours or so.

For example, the model predicts that production of carbon dioxide must increase with time, a finding that goes against the conventional wisdom that carbon fluxes and atmospheric carbon dioxide levels have steadily decreased over the last 4 billion years.

Other studies which have assessed the importance of the Montreal Protocol have used models to predict atmospheric winds and temperatures and have looked a few decades into the future.

For example, in a simulated world where the atmospheric CO2 levels were double today's values — a scenario many scientists believe likely — models predict that Earth will warm by more than 2 °C.

«It would be like trying to predict El Niño with a sophisticated atmospheric model, but with the Sea Surface Temperatures taken from external, independent projections by, for example, the United Nations,» said Kalnay.

A recent trend in GCMs is to extend them to become Earth system models, that include such things as submodels for atmospheric chemistry or a carbon cycle model to better predict changes in carbon dioxide concentrations resulting from changes in emissions.

On March 19, 2008, astronomers using the Hubble Space Telescope announced confirmation of the presence of water and the detection of more methane in the atmosphere of the planet than would be predicted by conventional atmospheric models for «hot Jupiters» (Hubble news release and videos; ESA news release and videos; and Swain et al, 2008 — more below).

Running atmospheric computer models, British researchers found a connection between climate change and turbulence, and they predict that the average strength of turbulence will increase by 10 to 40 % by 2050.

In addition, atmospheric scientist Dr. Hendrik Tennekes, a scientific pioneer in the development of numerical weather prediction and former director of research at The Netherlands» Royal National Meteorological Institute, recently compared scientists who promote computer models predicting future climate doom to unlicensed «software engineers.»

The data will be especially useful to colleagues such as Lee Murray, an assistant professor of earth and environmental sciences, who builds computer models to predict future changes in atmospheric chemistry.

The team's model predicted that foliage would increase by some 5 to 10 percent given the 14 percent increase in atmospheric CO 2 concentration during the study period.

While 2015 may prove to be a fluke, computer models predict similar conditions will become more common as atmospheric levels of man - made greenhouse gases increase.

Here's my uneducated question — while I respect Gavin's comments about not abusing the science, it seems to me that many measurable indicators of climate change are (to the extent I can tell) occurring / progressing / worsening faster than predicted by most models, whether we're talking about atmospheric CO2 levels, arctic ice melting, glacial retreat, etc..

Given that the other important variables (sea surface temps, depth of the warm layer, and atmospheric moisture) are all predicted to increase, it seems hard to make the claim that tropical cyclones will be unchanged, just as it seemed unwise to claim that Lyman et al's «Recent cooling of the upper oceans» meant that climate models had fatal flaws.

For example, do climate models predict jumps between states of climatic circulation, either atmospheric or oceanic?

This crudely predicted atmospheric fraction is comparable to the model atmospheric fraction after 1000 years, which ranges from 14 - 30 %, depending on the size of the fossil fuel release.

Moreover, the seasonal, regional, and atmospheric patterns of rising temperatures — greater warming in winters than summers, greater warming at high latitudes than near the equator, and a cooling in the stratosphere while the lower atmosphere is warmer — jibe with what computer models predict should happen with greenhouse heating.

Promote field and modeling efforts to predict how atmospheric forcings will degrade near - surface permafrost and alter the surface energy balance and hydrology in the Arctic, at local to regional scales.

This prediction failure has been due to the climate models assuming that minimum temperatures (nighttime temps) are driven by atmospheric CO2 levels, resulting in predicted minimum temperatures that are too high.

With this «business as usual» projections o 1,5 % / year emissions increase for his scenario A, his models predicted a CO2 atmospheric content of 384 ppmV for 2006 (R. Pielke Jr's graph in # 44).

This can be compared with some 200 W / m2 from direct sunshine, and about 6 W / m2 for what climate change models predict will happen if the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide doubles.

In contrast to Trenberth's 2015 lament that atmospheric circulation patterns are not robustly simulated by CO2 - driven climate models, predicting storm tracks and blocking are the most critical factors for providing early warnings.

** We note, however, that the atmosphere, both over land and ocean, did not warm during this same post-1978 period — even though atmospheric theory and every climate model predicts that the tropical atmosphere should warm nearly twice as rapidly as the surface.

First, the computer climate models on which predictions of rapid warming from enhanced atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration are based «run hot,» simulating two to three times the warming actually observed over relevant periods — during which non-anthropogenic causes probably accounted for some and could have accounted for all the observed warming — and therefore provide no rational basis for predicting future GAT.

Climate models are like weather models for the atmosphere and land, except they have to additionally predict the ocean currents, sea - ice changes, include seasonal vegetation effects, possibly even predict vegetation changes, include aerosols and possibly atmospheric chemistry, so they are not like weather models after all, except for the atmospheric dynamics, land surface, and cloud / precipitation component.

Tom — You raise valid points about the challenge of model development for predicting long term trends such as temperature responses to a continued rise in atmospheric CO2.

In a comparison of 17 computer models of world climate, all predict global warming will kick in over Antarctica, and most indicate temperatures in the interior of the continent will rise faster than in the rest of the world, said Dr. Benjamin D. Santer, an atmospheric scientist at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.

Interpretation of cloud - climate feedback predicted by 14 atmospheric general circulation models.

The parameterization is intended for application in large - scale atmospheric and cloud models that can predict 1) the supersaturation of water vapor, which requires a representation of vertical velocity on the cloud scale, and 2) concentrations of a variety of insoluble aerosol species.

Currently, the ability of dynamic models to predict precipitation diminishes quickly after two weeks due to the inherent chaotic nature of the atmospheric system.

Models of climate change must take these feedbacks into account to predict future atmospheric carbon dioxide levels.»

These models predicted that the Northern Hemisphere Polar region would warm fastest and first, that the Southern Ocean would draw a greater portion of atmospheric heat into the ocean system, and that land ice melt near Greenland and West Antarctica would generate cold, fresh water flows into the nearby ocean zones and set off localized cooling.

Hence the predicted atmospheric CO2 concentration in 2100 is higher (and consequently the climate is warmer) than in models that do not include these couplings (Denman et al., 2007 Section 7.1.5).

It's my understanding that NVAP data shows as atmospheric CO2 increases, water vapor decreases; exactly opposite what climate models predict because they assume water vapor is a net positive feedback; more wv, more warming, more wv, more warming.....

Furthermore in contrast to researchers arguing rising atmospheric CO2 will inhibit calcification, increased photosynthesis not only increases calcification, paradoxically the process of calcification produces CO2 and drops pH to levels lower than predicted by climate change models.

Consider models to be the equivalent of hypotheses representing how it is believed that atmospheric physics works and the various measuring activities to be the experiments so that over many years predicted changes in climate behaviour may or may not be observed.

In addition, atmospheric scientist Dr. Hendrik Tennekes, a scientific pioneer in the development of numerical weather prediction and former director of research at The Netherlands» Royal National Meteorological Institute, recently compared scientists who promote computer models predicting future climate doom to unlicensed «software engineers.»

«This H2O negative - feedback effect on CO2 is ignored in models that assume that warm moist air does not rise and form sunlight - reflecting clouds, but remains as humid air near sea level, absorbing infrared radiation from the sun, and approximately doubling the temperature rises predicted from atmospheric CO2 increases.

Importantly, the scientists recognize that «atmospheric growth rates have deviated significantly from predictions of a linear model of atmospheric CO2 concentrations and anthropogenic emissions since 2002,» underscoring the imprecision of computer models for predicting climate change.

General circulation models predict that, for a doubling of atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, mean annual air temperatures may rise several degrees over much of the Arctic.

There is no possibility that computer models can predict the net effect of atmospheric water in a higher CO2 atmosphere.

Seasonal forecast models are predicting a large - scale atmospheric pattern during January - March much like that during California's wettest years.

The most commonly used method for representing lightning in global atmospheric models generally predicts lightning increases in a warmer world.

Hence predicted future atmospheric CO2 concentrations are therefore higher (and consequently the climate warmer) than in models that do not include these couplings.