After all, UAH has a history of being biased low, and other measurements of
atmospheric temperatures estimate higher warming rates than in the UAH record.
Not exact matches
Since climate in a specific region is affected by the rest of Earth,
atmospheric conditions such as
temperature and moisture at the region's boundary are
estimated by using other sources such as GCMs or reanalysis data.
They developed a calculation to divide the sound into smaller pieces and then
estimated the source location for all the small pieces, correcting for delays caused by the speed of sound in air at room
temperature and at standard
atmospheric pressure.
Indeed, the team
estimates that this cooling effect could reduce by two - thirds the predicted increase in global
temperatures initiated by a doubling of
atmospheric carbon dioxide.
Although the earth has experienced exceptional warming over the past century, to
estimate how much more will occur we need to know how
temperature will respond to the ongoing human - caused rise in
atmospheric greenhouse gases, primarily carbon dioxide.
Because of those uncertainties, researchers can
estimate only that doubling
atmospheric carbon dioxide from preindustrial levels would increase global
temperature between 1 °C and 5 °C.
The newfound world circles its star at about 60 million kilometers, leaving it with a relatively mild
temperature that Deeg's group
estimates to be between minus 20 degrees Celsius and 150 degrees C, depending on its
atmospheric makeup.
This so - called constant - composition commitment results as
temperatures gradually equilibrate with the current
atmospheric radiation imbalance, and has been
estimated at between 0.3 °C and 0.9 °C warming over the next century.»
We argue that KELT - 18b's high
temperature and low surface gravity, which yield an
estimated ~ 600 km
atmospheric scale height, combined with its hot, bright host make it an excellent candidate for observations aimed at
atmospheric characterization.
To
estimate the amount of precipitation, Ghosh's team measured a common paleoclimate proxy for
temperature, humidity, and
atmospheric circulation.
The CDR potential and possible environmental side effects are
estimated for various COA deployment scenarios, assuming olivine as the alkalinity source in ice ‐ free coastal waters (about 8.6 % of the global ocean's surface area), with dissolution rates being a function of grain size, ambient seawater
temperature, and pH. Our results indicate that for a large ‐ enough olivine deployment of small ‐ enough grain sizes (10 µm),
atmospheric CO2 could be reduced by more than 800 GtC by the year 2100.
Newly published research in «PNAS» identifies what authors call a «vertical human fingerprint» in satellite - based
estimates of
atmospheric temperature changes, adding still more to confidence levels about human influences in warming.
The significant difference between the observed decrease of the CO2 sink
estimated by the inversion (0.03 PgC / y per decade) and the expected increase due solely to rising
atmospheric CO2 -LRB--0.05 PgC / y per decade) indicates that there has been a relative weakening of the Southern Ocean CO2 sink (0.08 PgC / y per decade) due to changes in other
atmospheric forcing (winds, surface air
temperature, and water fluxes).
This was a relatively stable climate (for several thousand years, 20,000 years ago), and a period where we have reasonable
estimates of the radiative forcing (albedo changes from ice sheets and vegetation changes, greenhouse gas concentrations (derived from ice cores) and an increase in the
atmospheric dust load) and
temperature changes.
Figure 3:
Estimates of natural and human - induced
atmospheric temperature change from 1951 — 2010.
The results of the analysis demonstrate that relative to the reference case, projected
atmospheric CO2 concentrations are
estimated by 2100 to be reduced by 3.29 to 3.68 part per million by volume (ppmv), global mean
temperature is
estimated to be reduced by 0.0076 to 0.0184 °C, and sea - level rise is projected to be reduced by approximately 0.074 — 0.166 cm, based on a range of climate sensitivities.
The non-GHG
temperature of the surface is
estimated at 255K or -18 C and that with
atmospheric GHG raises it to 288 or +15 C.
Salter
estimates that a fleet of up to 40,000 of these hi - tech Mary Celestes would be required to offset the
temperature rise predicted to result from a doubling in
atmospheric CO2.
His
estimate for the surface
temperature rise due to a doubling of
atmospheric CO2 for the zero feedback case is 0.5 C which is further reduced to 0.3 C due to negative feedback caused by the increase in planetary clouds which is in agreement with Idso's experimental analysis to determine the planet's response to a change in forcing.
By measuring changes in winds, rather than relying upon problematic
temperature measurements, Robert J. Allen and Steven C. Sherwood of the Department of Geology and Geophysics at Yale
estimated the
atmospheric temperatures near 10 km in the Tropics rose about 0.65 degrees Celsius per decade since 1970 — probably the fastest warming rate anywhere in Earth's atmosphere.
By measuring changes in winds, rather than relying upon problematic
temperature measurements, researchers
estimated the
atmospheric temperatures near 10 km in the Tropics rose about 0.65 degrees Celsius per decade since 1970 — probably the fastest warming rate anywhere in Earth's atmosphere.
Add to that the period between 2000 - 2014 with little or no change in global
estimated temperatures, despite a large increase in
atmospheric C02.
Quantitatively, Vasskog et al.
estimate that during this time (the prior interglacial) the GrIS was «probably between ~ 7 and 60 % smaller than at present,» and that that melting contributed to a rise in global sea level of «between 0.5 and 4.2 m.» Thus, in comparing the present interglacial to the past interglacial,
atmospheric CO2 concentrations are currently 30 % higher, global
temperatures are 1.5 - 2 °C cooler, GrIS volume is from 7 - 67 % larger, and global sea level is at least 0.5 - 4.2 m lower, none of which observations signal catastrophe for the present.
The resulting best -
estimate temperature data product for Lauder is expected to be valuable for satellite and model validation as measurements of
atmospheric essential climate variables are sparse in the Southern Hemisphere.
This figure
estimates the total
temperature change resulting from a doubling of
atmospheric CO2 concentrations.
The Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM / I) radiometers provide brightness
temperatures at three different frequencies (19.35, 37.0 and 85.5 GHz) from which are
estimated: wind speed when not raining, integrated
atmospheric water vapor content, liquid water content, and a rain index.
And that says nothing about the fact that the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity is supposed to reflect the rise in
temperature following an increase in
atmospheric CO2, but what is
estimated is the rise in
temperature PRECEEDING an increase in
atmospheric CO2.
Although the earth has experienced exceptional warming over the past century, to
estimate how much more will occur we need to know how
temperature will respond to the ongoing human - caused rise in
atmospheric greenhouse gases, primarily carbon dioxide.
This means that there is no validity to the comment that this is «still considerably smaller than the
estimated rise in
temperatures from a continuation of current CO2 emission rates» especially considering the fact that CO2 emissions from humans are definitely not the prime source of the observed increase in
atmospheric CO2 concentration.
The Lewis and Curry paper said the best
estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity — the change in global mean surface
temperature at equilibrium that is caused by a doubling of the
atmospheric CO2 concentration — was 1.64 degrees.
Since these two time series represent largely independent mean
temperature estimates for the same
atmospheric layer, the strong correspondence between them is further proof that the fluctuations are real.
Recent studies show that there is great «uncertainty» on the postulated theoretical
temperature impact of doubling
atmospheric CO2 concentrations, with latest
estimates running around half the previous ones.
The
estimated climate changes in the Permian - Triassic Event 252 million years ago were a 2,000 parts per million increase in
atmospheric carbon dioxide levels — five to ten times today's levels — and a 14 °F (8 °C) rise in
temperatures.
One approach is to
estimate global
temperature as a simple function of climate forcing and ENSO through a regression approach; perhaps the best - known example is Foster & Rahmstorf (2011), which found that when the impact of natural factors (volcanic eruptions, solar variations, and ENSO) is removed, the trend in global
temperature has been remarkably steady since 1979 (when satellite observations of
atmospheric temperature begin).
Thus we employ here an established technique to
estimate the impact of ENSO on global mean
temperature, and to incorporate the effects of dynamically induced
atmospheric variability and major explosive volcanic eruptions.
But let's do a real rough check, based on the HadCRUT surface
temperature record, the Mauna Loa measurement of
atmospheric CO2 (after 1958) and the IPCC
estimated CO2 level based on the Vostok ice cores (prior to 1958):
I am surprised that no one has noticed that the UN's IPCC used that trick in publications by applying or condoning the use of a false zero line for their
estimate of normal and anomalous
atmospheric temperatures.
Thus given a total radiative forcing between the LGM and Holocene of approximately 6 W / m2, and a surface
temperature change of approximately 4.5 °C, HS12 arrives at a climate sensitivity best
estimate of 3 ± 0.5 °C for a 4 W / m2 forcing (which is approximately equivalent to a doubling of
atmospheric CO2).
To
estimate the amount of precipitation, Ghosh's team measured a common paleoclimate proxy for
temperature, humidity, and
atmospheric circulation.
Additionally, such an observing system, by measuring the temporal and spatial variability of the AMOC for approximately a decade, would provide essential ground truth to AMOC model
estimates and would also yield insight into whether AMOC changes or other
atmospheric / oceanic variability have the dominant impact on interannual sea surface
temperature (SST) variability.
The CSALT model uses
atmospheric pressure to
estimate natural variability in the global
temperature signal.
That same reference finds that the statistical
estimates for the
temperature effect of volcanic sulfates and ENSO (and effects of ENSO on
atmospheric CO2) are consistent with
estimates derived from climate models and empirical analyses.
There have been a number of new papers that use recent
atmospheric, ocean, and surface
temperature observations to argue that climate sensitivity may be lower than previously
estimated (e.g. closer to 2 C than 4 C).
Therefore we can work backward in time to
estimate what he reckons
atmospheric CO2 would be at the time of the last Ice Age (glacial maximum), a time when global
temperatures were about 4 - 6 °C cooler than now.
By dividing the total
temperature change (as indicated by the best - fit linear trend) by the observed rise in
atmospheric carbon dioxide content, and then applying that relationship to a doubling of the carbon dioxide content, Loehle arrives at an
estimate of the earth's transient climate sensitivity — transient, in the sense that at the time of CO2 doubling, the earth has yet to reach a state of equilibrium and some warming is still to come.
We study climate sensitivity and feedback processes in three independent ways: (1) by using a three dimensional (3 - D) global climate model for experiments in which solar irradiance So is increased 2 percent or CO2 is doubled, (2) by using the CLIMAP climate boundary conditions to analyze the contributions of different physical processes to the cooling of the last ice age (18K years ago), and (3) by using
estimated changes in global
temperature and the abundance of
atmospheric greenhouse gases to deduce an empirical climate sensitivity for the period 1850 - 1980.
This implies that the climate sensitivity (the
temperature increase with a doubling of
atmospheric CO2 concentration) is at the higher end of the range of
estimates.
Our independent proxy
estimates indicate that Arctic
temperatures during the Pliocene were considerably warmer than previous
estimates derived from empirical proxies (Ballantyne et al., 2006; Elias and Matthews, 2002) and climate model simulations (Haywood et al., 2009), despite
estimates of Pliocene
atmospheric CO2 levels that are comparable to today (Pagani et al., 2010).
Ramanathan, V., Lian, M. S., & Cess, R. D. Increased
atmospheric CO2: Zonal and Seasonal
Estimates of the Effect on the Radiation Energy Balance and Surface
Temperature.
Willis, this brings up an issue that I have never seen properly discussed, to wit: Are the surface statistical models like HadCRU
estimating the global average surface
temperature anomaly, or the global
atmospheric temperature anomaly?