Furthermore, the missing hotspot in
the atmospheric warming pattern observed during the last warming period proves that (1) the IPCC climate theory is fundamentally broken, and (2) to the extent that their theory correctly predicts the warming signature of increased carbon dioxide, we know that carbon dioxide definitely did not cause the recent warming (see here for my full explanation of the missing hotspot).
Not exact matches
While natural
patterns of certain
atmospheric and ocean conditions are already known to influence Greenland melt, the study highlights the importance of a long - term
warming trend to account for the unprecedented west Greenland melt rates in recent years.
Another principal investigator for the project, Laura Pan, senior scientist at the National Center for
Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., believes storm clusters over this area of the Pacific are likely to influence climate in new ways, especially as the
warm ocean temperatures (which feed the storms and chimney) continue to heat up and
atmospheric patterns continue to evolve.
As a result of
atmospheric patterns that both
warmed the air and reduced cloud cover as well as increased residual heat in newly exposed ocean waters, such melting helped open the fabled Northwest Passage for the first time [see photo] this summer and presaged tough times for polar bears and other Arctic animals that rely on sea ice to survive, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.
The study stops short of attributing California's latest drought to changes in Arctic sea ice, partly because there are other phenomena that play a role, like
warm sea surface temperatures and changes to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, an
atmospheric climate
pattern that typically shifts every 20 to 30 years.
the Arctic has shown a
pattern of strong low - level
atmospheric warming over the Arctic Ocean in autumn because of heat loss from the ocean back to the atmosphere....
Regional trends are notoriously problematic for models, and seems more likely to me that the underprediction of European
warming has to do with either the modeled ocean temperature
pattern, the modelled
atmospheric response to this
pattern, or some problem related to the local hydrological cycle and boundary layer moisture dynamics.
For example, in Earth
atmospheric circulation (such as Hadley cells) transport heat between the
warmer equatorial regions to the cool polar regions and this circulation
pattern not only determines the temperature distribution, but also sets which regions on Earth are dry or rainy and how clouds form over the planet.
However, there are features of the
pattern of change that we find difficult to explain by
atmospheric warming alone.
Global
warming had increased the amount of
atmospheric moisture available to condense into rain, and La Niña, a circulation
pattern that can produce heavy rains in Pakistan, was in progress.
When polar air dipping southward collides with rising
warm tropical air, the meet - up causes a powerful
atmospheric wave with rollercoaster - like
patterns that propagate eastward around the globe.
The
atmospheric buildup of long - lived greenhouse gases is setting in motion centuries of shifts in climate
patterns, coastlines, water resources and ecosystems, he said — hardly a transformation one would describe with a gentle word like
warming.
«The observed
pattern of
warming, comparing surface and
atmospheric temperature trends, doesn't show the characteristic fingerprint associated with greenhouse
warming,» wrote lead author David Douglas, a climate expert from the University of Rochester, in New York state.
My point, which I hope you would likewise concede, is that even with a weakened or shut - off THC, western Europe would still remain
warm relative to other land masses at the same latitudes (possibly even
warmer than British Columbia, as it is now), based primarily on
atmospheric circulation
patterns.
But I believe there is little doubt that the record - breaking scale and potential destructiveness of Sandy is due in large part to the amplifying effects of
warmer ocean temperatures, higher
atmospheric moisture content, and unusual Arctic weather
patterns.
According to NASA scientists, this was the ninth
warmest year in 132 years of recordkeeping, despite the cooling influence of the La Niña
atmospheric and oceanic circulation
pattern and relatively low solar irradiance.
And given the fact that land
warms more quickly than ocean, resulting in areas of low pressure over land, changing
patterns of
atmospheric and oceanic circulation are bringing them to the coasts — where so much life's diversity is found.
«The climate
patterns responsible for the expected above - normal 2007 hurricane season continue to be the ongoing multi-decadal signal (the set of oceanic and
atmospheric conditions that have spawned increased Atlantic hurricane activity since 1995),
warmer - than - normal sea surface temperatures in key areas of the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, and the El Nino / La Nina cycle»
Following up on my post from last week on the Arctic Oscillation, Ken Chang has written a Week in Review story with a bit more detail on the unusual
atmospheric patterns behind the big, but very constrained, chill, and the dominance of
warm conditions — just not where a lot of Western media are situated.
Moreover, the seasonal, regional, and
atmospheric patterns of rising temperatures — greater
warming in winters than summers, greater
warming at high latitudes than near the equator, and a cooling in the stratosphere while the lower atmosphere is
warmer — jibe with what computer models predict should happen with greenhouse heating.
Climate alarm depends on several gloomy assumptions — about how fast emissions will increase, how fast
atmospheric concentrations will rise, how much global temperatures will rise, how
warming will affect ice sheet dynamics and sea - level rise, how
warming will affect weather
patterns, how the latter will affect agriculture and other economic activities, and how all climate change impacts will affect public health and welfare.
John Carter August 8, 2014 at 12:58 am chooses to state his position on the greenhouse effect in the following 134 word sentence: «But given the [1] basics of the greenhouse effect, the fact that with just a very small percentage of greenhouse gas molecules in the air this effect keeps the earth about 55 - 60 degrees
warmer than it would otherwise be, and the fact that through easily recognizable if [2] inadvertent growing
patterns we have at this point probably at least [3] doubled the total collective amount in heat absorption and re-radiation capacity of long lived
atmospheric greenhouse gases (nearly doubling total that of the [4] leading one, carbon dioxide, in the modern era), to [5] levels not collectively seen on earth in several million years — levels that well predated the present ice age and extensive earth surface ice conditions — it goes [6] against basic physics and basic geologic science to not be «predisposed» to the idea that this would ultimately impact climate.»
The
pattern of
warming in the last 150 years can not be explained by increases in
atmospheric CO2.
Yet, we explained there is also reasonable basis for concern that a
warming world may at least temporarily increase tornado damage including the fact that oceans are now
warmer, and regional ocean circulation cycles such as La Nina / El Nino
patterns in the Pacific which affect upper
atmospheric conditions appear to becoming more chaotic under the influence of climate change.
That study, also detailed in Geophysical Research Letters, suggests that while the Pacific heat set the
atmospheric pattern in motion, Arctic sea ice loss in a particular region made the
warm / cold difference so extreme, said Jennifer Francis of Rutgers University.
Francis, who wasn't involved with either study, is one of the main proponents of an idea that by altering how much heat the ocean lets out, sea ice melt and Arctic
warming can also change
atmospheric circulation
patterns, in particular by making the jet stream form larger peaks, or highs, and troughs, or lows.
E. Even the official «global temperature» record, which has been adjusted to promote global
warming hysteria, has not followed the
pattern of increased
atmospheric concentrations of CO2, but rather has followed the
pattern of natural causes, primarily solar activity and ocean cycles.
«The authors write that «the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a naturally occurring fluctuation,» whereby «on a timescale of two to seven years, the eastern equatorial Pacific climate varies between anomalously cold (La Niña) and
warm (El Niño) conditions,» and that «these swings in temperature are accompanied by changes in the structure of the subsurface ocean, variability in the strength of the equatorial easterly trade winds, shifts in the position of
atmospheric convection, and global teleconnection
patterns associated with these changes that lead to variations in rainfall and weather
patterns in many parts of the world,» which end up affecting «ecosystems, agriculture, freshwater supplies, hurricanes and other severe weather events worldwide.»»
By examining the spatial
pattern of both types of climate variation, the scientists found that the anthropogenic global
warming signal was relatively spatially uniform over the tropical oceans and thus would not have a large effect on the
atmospheric circulation, whereas the PDO shift in the 1990s consisted of
warming in the tropical west Pacific and cooling in the subtropical and east tropical Pacific, which would enhance the existing sea surface temperature difference and thus intensify the circulation.
I was flattered when he asked me to review one of his early papers on the historic
pattern of
atmospheric CO2 and its relationship to global
warming.
As I have also noted in recent public comments, additional mechanisms have been identified by which changes in
atmospheric circulation
patterns that may be a result of global
warming could be affecting droughts in the American West.
Increased weed and pest pressure associated with longer growing seasons and
warmer winters will be an increasingly important challenge; there are already examples of earlier arrival and increased populations of some insect pests such as corn earworm.64 Furthermore, many of the most aggressive weeds, such as kudzu, benefit more than crop plants from higher
atmospheric carbon dioxide, and become more resistant to herbicide control.72 Many weeds respond better than most cash crops to increasing carbon dioxide concentrations, particularly «invasive» weeds with the so - called C3 photosynthetic pathway, and with rapid and expansive growth
patterns, including large allocations of below - ground biomass, such as roots.73 Research also suggests that glyphosate (for example, Roundup), the most widely - used herbicide in the United States, loses its efficacy on weeds grown at the increased carbon dioxide levels likely to occur in the coming decades.74 To date, all weed / crop competition studies where the photosynthetic pathway is the same for both species favor weed growth over crop growth as carbon dioxide is increased.72
Identifies changes in occurrence of
atmospheric circulation
patterns by measuring the similarity of the cool - season
atmospheric configuration that occurred in each year of the 1949 — 2015 period with the configuration that occurred during each of the five driest, wettest,
warmest, and coolest years
The world is not
warming for decades hence becaus of large sscale ocean and
atmospheric patterns — something that has been known to science for at least a decade.
Although it does not cover the South Pole, the
warming pattern evident in the MSU data (Fig. 3) is consistent increased
atmospheric thickness from the surface to the mid troposphere and rising geopotential height over the continent and in the Weddell Sea sector.
Scientists have found several indicators that point to human - caused
warming, including melting of glaciers and ice sheets, ocean heat content, rainfall
patterns,
atmospheric moisture, river runoff, stratospheric cooling, and the extent of Arctic sea ice.
While different continental configurations, elevations, and
atmospheric circulation
patterns now prevail on Earth, precluding a return to those exact past conditions, the underlying message is that
warming of 4o - 7o will result in a biotically very different world.
According to Gerry Bell, Ph.D., NOAA's lead seasonal hurricane forecaster, the major climate factors expected to influence this year's activity are the ongoing multi-decadal signal, which produces wind and
atmospheric pressure
patterns favorable for hurricane formation, along with ongoing
warmer - than - normal sea surface temperatures.
According to research published last week by Jennifer Francis of Rutgers University (Geophysical Research Letters, vol 39, L06801), the rapid
warming in the Arctic is affecting
atmospheric circulation further south, making weather
patterns more persistent — more blocking, in other words — which makes some kinds of extreme weather, such as heatwaves, more likely.
The observed
patterns of surface
warming, temperature changes through the atmosphere, increases in ocean heat content, increases in
atmospheric moisture, sea level rise, and increased melting of land and sea ice also match the
patterns scientists expect to see due to rising levels of CO2 and other human - induced changes (see Question 5).
While natural
patterns of certain
atmospheric and ocean conditions are already known to influence Greenland melt, the study highlights the importance of a long - term
warming trend to account for the unprecedented west Greenland melt rates in recent years.
More heat in the Earth's system due to global
warming is felt everywhere, and that includes the massive - scale
patterns of
atmospheric circulation that give us our weather.
They first sorted the data into regional
patterns, and then compared the temporal behavior of these
patterns to common historical climate indices — such as well - known
patterns of
atmospheric circulation, sea surface temperatures, or even large - scale
warming.
There is growing observational data, physical analysis of possible mechanisms, and model agreement that human - caused climate change is strengthening
atmospheric circulation
patterns in a way «which implies that the periodic and inevitable droughts California will experience will exhibit more severity...» «there is a traceable anthropogenic
warming footprint in the enormous intensity of the anomalous ridge during winter 2013 — 2014 and the associated drought.»
Because the longwave
atmospheric weather
patterns (Rossby waves) have a scale of several thousand kilometers, it is not unusual for the temperature of a region the size of the United States to be substantially
warmer or co lder during a single season than the zonal mean temperature.
: 1 there is a greenhouse effect 2 that CO2 is a GHG 3 that humans have increased
atmospheric CO2 to levels not seen for 650k and more 4 that this MUST have a
warming effect 5 that the
warming (
pattern, rate etc) is consistent with GHG forcing
On a related note, there has been a considerable amount of recent interest focused upon a possible increase in the frequency and / or intensity of high - amplitude
atmospheric wave
patterns (and associated extreme weather events) due to enhanced
warming of the Arctic over the past 2 - 3 decades.
1 there is a greenhouse effect 2 that CO2 is a GHG 3 that humans have increased
atmospheric CO2 to levels not seen for 650k and more 4 that this MUST have a
warming effect 5 that the
warming (
pattern, rate etc) is consistent with GHG forcing 5 that climate sensitivity is likely to be around 3C 6 that, whatever the flaws of MBH98, there are numerous hockey stick reconstructions developed by numerous (and independent) scientists using numerous proxies (not just treerings).
Therefore, they sought an answer in terms of the
atmospheric flow
pattern that drives ocean circulation and results in the advection of
warm water into the northeastern North Atlantic.
Climate scientists Charles Greene and Bruce Monger of Cornell University, writing earlier this year in Oceanography, provided evidence that Arctic icemelts linked to global
warming contribute to the very
atmospheric pattern that sent the frigid burst down across Canada and the eastern U.S.