The so - called water vapour feedback, caused by an increase in
atmospheric water vapour due to a temperature increase, is the most important feedback responsible for the amplification of the temperature increase.
The rise of CO2 from 270ppm to now over 400ppm, the extent of equatorial and sub tropical deforestation, the soot deposits on the polar ice caps, the increase in
atmospheric water vapour due to a corresponding increase in ocean temps and changes in ocean currents, the extreme ice albedo currently happening in the arctic etc, etc are all conspiring in tandem to alter the climate as we know it.
Not exact matches
In a warming world,
atmospheric water vapour content is expected to rise
due to an increase in saturation
water vapour pressure with air temperature.
Recent studies have shown a doubling of stratospheric
water vapour, likely from increasing
atmospheric heights
due to global warming, overshooting thunderstorm tops from stronger tropical cyclones and mesoscale convective systems etc...
The second factor is the insulating effect of the atmosphere of which well over 90 % results from
atmospheric water in the form of clouds and
water vapour with the remaining 10 %
due primarily from CO2 and ozone with just a slightly detectable effect from methane and a trivial effect from all the other gases named in tyhe Kyoto Accord that is so small it can't even be detected on measurements of the Earth's radiative spectrum.
The associated energy changes at TOA are associated with
water vapour due to changing
atmospheric temps and cloud changes anti-correlated with SST in the tropical and sub-tropical Pacific.
One idea was that increased IR radiated from
water vapour in these air masses could off - set expansion
due to release of latent heat, and ad drive horizontal circulation This had to be attacked as it showed a role for radiative gases in
atmospheric circulation.
It is well known that a doubling of
atmospheric CO2 levels could result in temperature increases of between 1.5 and 4.5 °C,
due to fast changes such as snow and ice melt, and the behaviour of clouds and
water vapour.
The resulting warming
due to the
water vapour is in fact larger than the initial warming
due to the CO2 that forced it to happen, and this is the point of the Lacis paper - yes,
water vapour is a more important greenhouse gas than CO2, but
water vapour doesn't change systematically with time UNLESS CO2 is changing and initiating a warming that sets into motion the surface and
atmospheric processes that allow
water vapour to systematically increase.
As I read for example Bony et al. 2006, Soden and Held 2006, there are in the IPCC dogma four «feedbacks»: increased
atmospheric optical thickness
due to increased
water vapour column amount
due to sustained relative humidity; cloud radiative effects; albedo effects; lapse rate effects.