Superimposed on the secular trend is a natural multidecadal oscillation of an average period of 70 y with significant amplitude of 0.3 — 0.4 °C peak to peak, which can explain many historical episodes of warming and cooling and accounts for 40 % of the observed warming since the mid-20th century and for 50 % of the previously
attributed anthropogenic warming trend (55).
Not exact matches
Given that the
trend in global SSTs has been
attributed to increases in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (17 — 19), it follows that the best explanation for this ecosystem aberration is
anthropogenic warming that has passed a threshold of natural variability.
In particular, would anyone question that the observed
trends in sea surface temperature in all basins can be
attributed to
anthropogenic global
warming?
Exaggerated Natural vs
Anthropogenic Zhou and Tung (2012) suggest that at least half the attributed anthropogenic global warming is due to na
Anthropogenic Zhou and Tung (2012) suggest that at least half the
attributed anthropogenic global warming is due to na
anthropogenic global
warming is due to natural
trends.
The
warming from 1910 - 1940 is associated with natural variability (its attribution is still disputed), and the
trend is same magnitude as from 1970 - present (which is
attributed mostly to
anthropogenic factors); Phil Jones has actually stated this publicly.
Williams et al., 2017 (DOI: 10.1002 / 2017GL073138) «The
warming trend post-1850s in the SST reconstruction (0.8 ± 0.16 °C, 1s) is consistent with global mean
warming of 0.85 ± 0.21 °C (1s) from 1880 to 2012 (Figure 4b, c),
attributed largely to
anthropogenic causes -LSB-...].
The near - linear rate of
anthropogenic warming (predominantly from anthropogenic greenhouse gases) is shown in sources such as: «Deducing Multidecadal Anthropogenic Global Warming Trends Using Multiple Regression Analysis» «The global warming hiatus — a natural product of interactions of a secular warming trend and a multi-decadal oscillation» «The Origin and Limits of the Near Proportionality between Climate Warming and Cumulative CO2 Emissions» «Sensitivity of climate to cumulative carbon emissions due to compensation of ocean heat and carbon uptake» «Return periods of global climate fluctuations and the pause» «Using data to attribute episodes of warming and cooling in instrumental records» «The proportionality of global warming to cumulative carbon emissions» «The sensitivity of the proportionality between temperature change and cumulative CO2 emissions to ocean
anthropogenic warming (predominantly from anthropogenic greenhouse gases) is shown in sources such as: «Deducing Multidecadal Anthropogenic Global Warming Trends Using Multiple Regression Analysis» «The global warming hiatus — a natural product of interactions of a secular warming trend and a multi-decadal oscillation» «The Origin and Limits of the Near Proportionality between Climate Warming and Cumulative CO2 Emissions» «Sensitivity of climate to cumulative carbon emissions due to compensation of ocean heat and carbon uptake» «Return periods of global climate fluctuations and the pause» «Using data to attribute episodes of warming and cooling in instrumental records» «The proportionality of global warming to cumulative carbon emissions» «The sensitivity of the proportionality between temperature change and cumulative CO2 emissions to ocean mixing
warming (predominantly from
anthropogenic greenhouse gases) is shown in sources such as: «Deducing Multidecadal Anthropogenic Global Warming Trends Using Multiple Regression Analysis» «The global warming hiatus — a natural product of interactions of a secular warming trend and a multi-decadal oscillation» «The Origin and Limits of the Near Proportionality between Climate Warming and Cumulative CO2 Emissions» «Sensitivity of climate to cumulative carbon emissions due to compensation of ocean heat and carbon uptake» «Return periods of global climate fluctuations and the pause» «Using data to attribute episodes of warming and cooling in instrumental records» «The proportionality of global warming to cumulative carbon emissions» «The sensitivity of the proportionality between temperature change and cumulative CO2 emissions to ocean
anthropogenic greenhouse gases) is shown in sources such as: «Deducing Multidecadal
Anthropogenic Global Warming Trends Using Multiple Regression Analysis» «The global warming hiatus — a natural product of interactions of a secular warming trend and a multi-decadal oscillation» «The Origin and Limits of the Near Proportionality between Climate Warming and Cumulative CO2 Emissions» «Sensitivity of climate to cumulative carbon emissions due to compensation of ocean heat and carbon uptake» «Return periods of global climate fluctuations and the pause» «Using data to attribute episodes of warming and cooling in instrumental records» «The proportionality of global warming to cumulative carbon emissions» «The sensitivity of the proportionality between temperature change and cumulative CO2 emissions to ocean
Anthropogenic Global
Warming Trends Using Multiple Regression Analysis» «The global warming hiatus — a natural product of interactions of a secular warming trend and a multi-decadal oscillation» «The Origin and Limits of the Near Proportionality between Climate Warming and Cumulative CO2 Emissions» «Sensitivity of climate to cumulative carbon emissions due to compensation of ocean heat and carbon uptake» «Return periods of global climate fluctuations and the pause» «Using data to attribute episodes of warming and cooling in instrumental records» «The proportionality of global warming to cumulative carbon emissions» «The sensitivity of the proportionality between temperature change and cumulative CO2 emissions to ocean mixing
Warming Trends Using Multiple Regression Analysis» «The global
warming hiatus — a natural product of interactions of a secular warming trend and a multi-decadal oscillation» «The Origin and Limits of the Near Proportionality between Climate Warming and Cumulative CO2 Emissions» «Sensitivity of climate to cumulative carbon emissions due to compensation of ocean heat and carbon uptake» «Return periods of global climate fluctuations and the pause» «Using data to attribute episodes of warming and cooling in instrumental records» «The proportionality of global warming to cumulative carbon emissions» «The sensitivity of the proportionality between temperature change and cumulative CO2 emissions to ocean mixing
warming hiatus — a natural product of interactions of a secular
warming trend and a multi-decadal oscillation» «The Origin and Limits of the Near Proportionality between Climate Warming and Cumulative CO2 Emissions» «Sensitivity of climate to cumulative carbon emissions due to compensation of ocean heat and carbon uptake» «Return periods of global climate fluctuations and the pause» «Using data to attribute episodes of warming and cooling in instrumental records» «The proportionality of global warming to cumulative carbon emissions» «The sensitivity of the proportionality between temperature change and cumulative CO2 emissions to ocean mixing
warming trend and a multi-decadal oscillation» «The Origin and Limits of the Near Proportionality between Climate
Warming and Cumulative CO2 Emissions» «Sensitivity of climate to cumulative carbon emissions due to compensation of ocean heat and carbon uptake» «Return periods of global climate fluctuations and the pause» «Using data to attribute episodes of warming and cooling in instrumental records» «The proportionality of global warming to cumulative carbon emissions» «The sensitivity of the proportionality between temperature change and cumulative CO2 emissions to ocean mixing
Warming and Cumulative CO2 Emissions» «Sensitivity of climate to cumulative carbon emissions due to compensation of ocean heat and carbon uptake» «Return periods of global climate fluctuations and the pause» «Using data to
attribute episodes of
warming and cooling in instrumental records» «The proportionality of global warming to cumulative carbon emissions» «The sensitivity of the proportionality between temperature change and cumulative CO2 emissions to ocean mixing
warming and cooling in instrumental records» «The proportionality of global
warming to cumulative carbon emissions» «The sensitivity of the proportionality between temperature change and cumulative CO2 emissions to ocean mixing
warming to cumulative carbon emissions» «The sensitivity of the proportionality between temperature change and cumulative CO2 emissions to ocean mixing»
Changes since then are not only
attributed to
anthropogenic greenhouse gas induced (human - induced GHG) surface
warming, but that those same human - induced GHG increases have contributed to the observed drying
trend since the 1980's.
Using data to
attribute episodes of
warming and cooling in instrumental records, Ka - Kit Tung1 and Jiansong Zhou, 12/2012; ``...
anthropogenic global
warming trends might have been overestimated by a factor of two in the second half of the 20th century.»
Wu et al. (7, 8) pointed out the importance of this mode in the modern global temperature record with a period of 65 y: If it is interpreted as natural and related to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)(9 ⇓ ⇓ — 12), then the
trend attributed to
anthropogenic warming should be significantly reduced after ∼ 1980, when the AMO was in a rising phase.