Sentences with phrase «attribution analysis of»

Karsten Haustein is a postdoctoral researcher working on the World Weather Attribution project, developing the capability to perform quasi-real time attribution analysis of extreme weather events around the world on an operational basis.

An attribution analysis of extreme temperature changes is conducted using updated observations (HadEX2) and multi-model climate simulation (CMIP5) datasets for an extended period of 1951 — 2010.

This study addresses the challenge by undertaking a formal detection and attribution analysis of SCE changes based on several observational datasets with different structural characteristics, in order to account for the substantial observational uncertainty.

[Response your comments point up the need for a proper attribution analysis of climate change, rather then just poking at trends.

[4] It should be noted that the attribution analysis is conducted from the ground up using the holdings, and the effects are compounded daily; the excess return from the attribution analysis of 1.74 % differs from the composi te level excess return of 1.53 %.

If I were to do an attribution analysis of the sales process, I'd quickly learn that 98 % + of customers bought after being asked to buy.

Not exact matches

Performance analysis (also known as attribution analysis) is a «top of the list» requirement for asset managers seeking to «demonstrate their value,» a new report concluded.

More directly, attribution analysis measures the portfolio effects of a given manager's investment decisions, focusing especially on overall investment policy, asset allocation, security selection and activity.

Attribution analysis is a performance - evaluation tool that burrows deep into the investment acumen (and results) of fund portfolio managers.

Whether or not he writes nonsense, I am certain that he would not make up the attribution of a quote: he is far too straight a reporter for that, whatever anybody might think of his commentary, analysis, etc on whatever issue.

One challenge with storms in Germany is that climate models have trouble accurately depicting such small - scale features, but a new generation of models that should come into wider use within the next year or two do a much better job, meaning that attribution analyses on such events should become more feasible, van Oldenborgh said.

Just days later, a real - time analysis by scientists working with Climate Central's World Weather Attribution program has found that global warming has boosted the odds of such an extreme rainfall event in the region by about 40 percent — a small, but clear, effect, the scientists say.

The complexity of the new study «had a big impact on how certain we were» that «we would be able to do a sensible analysis,» said Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, a Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute climate scientist who was involved with this and prior rapid attribution studies.

«Because of Arctic amplification, the cold air coming south is not as cold as it used to be,» said Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, a Dutch climate scientist involved in the World Weather Attribution analysis.

A new analysis published in the journal Environmental Research Letters establishes that seasonal forecast sea surface temperature (SSTs) can be used to perform probabilistic extreme - event attribution, thereby accelerating the time it takes climate scientists to understand and quantify the role of global warming in certain classes of extreme weather events.

Burger isn't sure whether extreme event attribution science is strong enough yet to stand up in court, but his team is in the middle of an in - depth analysis to answer just that question.

Noah Diffenbaugh, a senior fellow at the Woods Institute for the Environment at Stanford University, said the new analysis represented a «valuable step» in attribution work, a field of climate science that's developed in the past decade in an effort to understand the role of climate change in specific extreme events.

Such analysis requires an «attribution study,» which often uses myriad runs of high - powered computer models to determine the odds of an event occurring with, and without, human - caused changes to the atmosphere.

One type of inverse method uses the ranges of climate change fingerprint scaling factors derived from detection and attribution analyses that attempt to separate the climate response to greenhouse gas forcing from the response to aerosol forcing and often from natural forcing as well (Gregory et al., 2002a; Stott et al., 2006c; see also Section 9.4.1.4).

The attribution analysis goes one step further by dividing the return of the covered call portfolio into four categories: market risk (S&P 500 and delta return), lottery risk (theta and gamma return), ex ante volatility risk (vega return), and other option risks.

An attribution analysis confirmed that in fact most of the excess return came from selection effect, [3] in which active managers demonstrated their ability to pick winning stocks within each sector.

Commentary and analysis include, but are not limited to, the allocation of a fund's portfolio securities and other investments among various asset classes, sectors, industries and countries, the characteristics of the stock components and other investments of a fund, the attribution of fund returns by asset class, sector, industry and country, and the volatility characteristics of a fund.

AWAD is pleased to invite its Members to a guided visit to Art Analysis and Research, a leading research firm offering technical investigation of artworks by combining scientific analysis, technical imaging as well as art history to aid with attribution, authentication and forgery deAnalysis and Research, a leading research firm offering technical investigation of artworks by combining scientific analysis, technical imaging as well as art history to aid with attribution, authentication and forgery deanalysis, technical imaging as well as art history to aid with attribution, authentication and forgery detection.

If you subtract the calculated expected physical warming based on the current attribution analysis would the climate system be expected to produce the same number of heat records as are now occurring on trend?

But... from a political point of view, if there was a decade - long downturn in temperature, and all the attribution analyses showed it to be a temporary downswing with more warming expected later... no - one would listen — William]-RSB-

If she accepts that attribution is amenable to quantitative analysis using some kind of model (doesn't have to be a GCM), I don't get why she doesn't accept that the numbers are going to be different for different time periods and have varying degrees of uncertainty depending on how good the forcing data is and what other factors can be brought in.

We recently published a paper exploring the impact of observational uncertainty on an attribution analysis.

While that does not prove that the content is equally bad, it is true that confusion in the formulation of ideas in language often mirrors confusion in the ideas themselves — and if one doesn't take the trouble to write a clean manuscript grammatically, why should that one be trusted to have taken the trouble to write one that's clean in matters of fact, attribution and analysis?

In fact, Min et al. used leading empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs; a type of principal component analysis) in their attribution analysis for extreme precipitation, implying large spatial scales.

Multi-signal detection and attribution analyses, which quantify the contributions of different natural and anthropogenic forcings to observed changes, show that greenhouse gas forcing alone during the past half century would likely have resulted in greater than the observed warming if there had not been an offsetting cooling effect from aerosol and other forcings.

The fact that certain analytical conclusions about observed climate change, attribution to human causes, in particular the energy system and deforestation, projected greater climate change in the future, observed impacts of climate change on natural and human systems, and projected very disruptive consequences in the future given our current trajectory, is not due to «group think» but rather to a generally shared analysis based on evidence.

Attribution analyses normally directly account for errors in the magnitude of the model's pattern of response to different forcings by the inclusion of factors that scale the model responses up or down to best match observed climate changes.

For those forcings that have been included in attribution analyses, uncertainties associated with the temporal and spatial pattern of the forcing and the modelled response can affect the results.

IPCC appeared to be claiming that the weight of atmospheric CO2 started with the weight of natural CO2 in 1750, but it never supplied a mass balance analysis to show that this isotopic attribution was reasonable.

Similarly, attribution of climate change to anthropogenic causes involves statistical analysis and the assessment of multiple lines of evidence to demonstrate, within a pre-specified margin of error, that the observed changes are (1) unlikely to be due entirely to natural internal climate variability; (2) consistent with estimated or modelled responses to the given combination of anthropogenic and natural forcing; and (3) not consistent with alternative, physically plausible explanations of recent climate change.

The conclusion that greenhouse warming dominates over solar warming is supported further by a detection and attribution analysis using 13 models from the MMD at PCMDI (Stone et al., 2007a) and an analysis of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model (CCSM1.4; Stone et al., 2007b).

We're poised to do a very interesting analysis of detection & attribution on AMO vs. trend and I'm patiently waiting for a filter from John Creighton.

However, detection and attribution analyses based on climate simulations that include these forcings, (e.g., Stott et al., 2006b), continue to detect a significant anthropogenic influence in 20th - century temperature observations even though the near - surface patterns of response to black carbon aerosols and sulphate aerosols could be so similar at large spatial scales (although opposite in sign) that detection analyses may be unable to distinguish between them (Jones et al., 2005).

For the entire Northern Hemisphere, there is evidence of an increase in both storm frequency and intensity during the cold season since 1950,1 with storm tracks having shifted slightly towards the poles.2, 3 Extremely heavy snowstorms increased in number during the last century in northern and eastern parts of the United States, but have been less frequent since 2000.11,15 Total seasonal snowfall has generally decreased in southern and some western areas, 16 increased in the northern Great Plains and Great Lakes region, 16,17 and not changed in other areas, such as the Sierra Nevada, although snow is melting earlier in the year and more precipitation is falling as rain versus snow.18 Very snowy winters have generally been decreasing in frequency in most regions over the last 10 to 20 years, although the Northeast has been seeing a normal number of such winters.19 Heavier - than - normal snowfalls recently observed in the Midwest and Northeast U.S. in some years, with little snow in other years, are consistent with indications of increased blocking (a large scale pressure pattern with little or no movement) of the wintertime circulation of the Northern Hemisphere.5 However, conclusions about trends in blocking have been found to depend on the method of analysis, 6 so the assessment and attribution of trends in blocking remains an active research area.

A recent analysis [1] by Dr Luke Harrington and Dr Friederike Otto of climateprediction.net introduces a new framework, adapted from studies of probabilistic event attribution, to disentangle the relative importance of regional climate emergence and changing population dynamics in the exposure to future heat extremes across multiple densely populated regions in Southern Asia and Eastern Africa (SAEA).

In another new global warming attribution study (we will soon do an overview of the results of this and similar studies), Gillett et al. (2012) perform a number of interesting analyses.

The main objective of this study is an event attribution analysis for extreme minimum events in Arctic SIE.

I would appeal to those who influence future funding to redress the balance of academic research toward greater understanding, and thus attribution, of natural controls, for in the last analysis, it is they that have the greater power and threat.

Results of the detection and attribution analysis shows that these declines are attributable to the anthropogenic forcing, which is dominated by the effect of increases in greenhouse gas concentration, and that they are not caused by natural forcing due to volcanic activity and solar variability combined.

A new report by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) presents the findings of their analysis of all research papers published since the Paris summit two years ago on the attribution of specific events to climate change.

Aggregation through meta - analysis is described next, followed by joint attribution through climate model studies, and synthesis of the observed changes described in Section 1.3.

Analysis of the Cook et al. (2013) paper revealed that of the papers that actually addressed the attribution question, just 64 papers (0.5 % of ~ 12,000) identified by Cook and colleagues were classified as (1) explicitly endorsing the quantified position that most (more than half) of the warming since 1950 was human caused.

For instance, US politicians frequently assert that it is an open question whether humans are causing the undeniable warming that the Earth is experiencing, thus exposing ignorance of dozens of lines of independent robust evidence of human causation including attribution studies, finger print analyses, strong evidence that correlates fossil fuel use to rising atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, and other physical and chemical evidence.

«Whilst there are certainly other potential drivers of changes in the climate we know that over the last century we have greatly increased the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere and, through detection and attribution analyses, we know that the rising levels of atmospheric CO2 and other greenhouse gases have driven the rise in global temperature,» King said.

This shows how selectively restricting any analysis to only the most recent portion of the available data opens up the likelihood of confounding cyclic and non-cyclic trends leading to false diagnosis and attribution.