As well, your separation agreement should be drafted to insure that there's no income
attribution between you and your spouse.
That makes parsing
attribution between natural and anthropogenic impossible by using primarily models.
Although not directly in response to your comment, I'll add that evaluating the Salby claims emphasizes the need for us to make a distinction that is routinely neglected in attempts to distribute
attribution between natural and anthropogenic contributions — timescale.
It is my understanding that if you teased apart the models
the attribution between the various forcings vary considerably from model to model, possibly due to overfitting, e.g. a desire to reproduce the post WWII cooling, an observation that may have no real significance i.e. just a stochastic fluctuation.
Not exact matches
«Equity
attribution variables continue to expand as asset managers are developing new types of smart beta portfolios that blur the lines
between passive and active investment styles,» Wolstenholme said.
Overall, the chances of seeing a rainfall event as intense as Harvey have roughly tripled - somewhere
between 1.5 and five times more likely - since the 1900s and the intensity of such an event has increased
between 8 percent and 19 percent, according to the new study by researchers with World Weather
Attribution, an international coalition of scientists that objectively and quantitatively assesses the possible role of climate change in individual extreme weather events.
The carbon entity data allows for the differentiation
between carbon emissions, produced and marketed by each of the 90 major multi-national and state - owned coal, oil and gas companies (and their predecessors), and the total human
attribution on climate change impacts.
This coupled with the fact that such events are not selective and often hit those countries that are least well equipped to deal with their impacts and set these countries back years in terms of development has been the motivation behind a new partnership
between the World Weather
Attribution (WWA) Initiative and the Climate & Development Knowledge Network (CDKN).
The large degree of variation in africanus shows that the degree of difference
between rudolfensis and earlier africanus is such that
attribution to differing species is not required.
Within 60 days, Superintendent Huppenthal and the Arizona Department of Education (ADE) must: (1) finalize its teacher and principal evaluation guidelines; (2) give sufficient weighting to student growth so as to differentiate
between teachers / principals who have contributed to more / less growth in student learning and achievement; (3) ensure that shared
attribution of growth does not mask high or low performing teachers as measured by growth; and (4) guarantee that all of this is done in time for schools to be prepared to implement for the 2014 - 2015 school year.
They explain the popular
attribution of the breed's origin to a cross
between bull - baiters and terriers as a retrospective confusion with the breeding history of the English Bull Terrier, which is a totally distinct breed that was never successful at pit fighting but whose origin is well - documented.
In this recent blog post, Dr. Patricia McConnell, CAAB, discusses a recent
attribution of guilt to a dog's behavior and the importance of differentiating
between «guilt» and social appeasement behavior.
The Catalogue Raisonné of Paintings by Salvador Dalí is an online project for the definitive and scientific cataloguing and
attribution of the paintings made by Salvador Dalí
between 1910 and 1983.
He suggests that the
attribution of value takes place
between a feeling of insecurity and the impulse to decide and asks whether there is a gap
between what we are and what we want to be or whether it is precisely in this gap that the humane is to be found.
The emotional fine - tuning of tensions
between materials, their origins, historical
attributions and treatment lend them an ineffable appearance.
I don't see a similar «point of contact»
between models and reality as far as
attribution studies of extreme events are concerned, given that what we need to compare are modeled statistics (which we can always have by making many model runs) and meaningful real statistics, (which are hard to get)?
Let me clarify the distinction
between detection and
attribution, as used by the IPCC.
The IPCC then regards the divergence
between unforced and anthropogenically forced simulations after ~ 1980 as the heart of the their detection and
attribution argument.
There is a difference
between being able to assign a formal
attribution for changes in weather statistics as a function of cliamte change, and saying that every bit of unusual weather is caused by climate change.
I meant that the
attribution of the forcing
between Ice albedo, CO2, etc. might be dependent on the temperature.
Note that the consistency
between modeled and observed temperature trends is not an
attribution, and is not taken to be by experts in the
attribution field.
Last week, we discussed the importance of a physical model in making
attributions because statistical correlations are incapable of distinguishing
between forcings with similar trends.
Attribution of the observed warming to anthropogenic forcing is easier at larger scales because averaging over larger regions reduces the natural variability more, making it easier to distinguish
between changes expected from different external forcings, or
between external forcing and climate variability.
The overall level of consistency
between attribution results derived from different models (as shown in Figure 9.9), and the ability of climate models to simulate large - scale temperature changes during the 20th century (Figures 9.5 and 9.6), indicate that such model differences are likely to have a relatively small impact on
attribution results of large - scale temperature change at the surface.
However, detection and
attribution analyses based on climate simulations that include these forcings, (e.g., Stott et al., 2006b), continue to detect a significant anthropogenic influence in 20th - century temperature observations even though the near - surface patterns of response to black carbon aerosols and sulphate aerosols could be so similar at large spatial scales (although opposite in sign) that detection analyses may be unable to distinguish
between them (Jones et al., 2005).
This is not a careful argument, because people — sceptical and not — have been questioning the leaps
between observing that the earths temperature changes, the
attribution of that change to humans, the conclusion that it will cause catastrophe, and that the only way to confront that catastrophe is by mitigating climate change through reduction in emissions.
At the heart of the IPCC's
attribution argument is causality, which is the relationship
between and event (the cause) and a second event (the effect), whereby the second event is a consequence of the first event.
The striking consistency
between the time series of observed average global temperature observations and simulated values with both natural and anthropogenic forcing (Figure 9.5) was instrumental in convincing me (and presumably others) of the IPCC's
attribution argument.
But it isn't the comparison
between legal and scientific processes that, ultimately, determines which is more inclined towards finding spurious
attributions of causation....
Therefore Pielke has not even demonstrated a lack of
attribution in cyclone disasters, and has certainly not disproven Field's claim about a linkage
between cyclones and climate change.
The result still remains counter-intuitive, and most other similar
attribution studies (like those referenced above) generally estimate
between 0.65 and 0.85 °C warming over the past 100 - 150 years.
The IPCC's conclusion on detection and
attribution is reached using probabilistic causation and counterfactual reasoning, whereby an ensemble of simulations are used to evaluate agreement
between observations and forcing for simulations conducted with and without anthropogenic forcing.
In the particular context of event
attribution, we address the question of how to compare records
between the so - called world as «it might have been been without anthropogenic forcings» and the «world that is».
The solar story changed substantially
between the AR3 and AR4, the confidence in solar forcing is cited as very low in AR3 and low in AR4, but somehow in the
attribution chapter we have very likely confidence level, in spite of the fact that the AR4 models used the old AR3 forcing.
This evidence includes multiple finger - print and
attribution studies, strong correlations
between fossil fuel use and increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, carbon isotope evidence that is supports that elevated carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere are from fossil sources, and model predictions that best fit actual observed greenhouse gas concentrations that support human activities as the source of atmospheric concentrations.
Among these, he noted the close agreement
between climate model output and observations down to spatial scales smaller than continents, which forms a part of the detection and
attribution literature.
The
attribution of climate change
between natural and anthropogenic is one of the major, unsolved problems of this science.
In their 2012 survey, which was published in 2014, they make numerous references to IPCC, Inc.'s AR5 and they do so in order to make comparisons
between the «
attribution statement» as it appears in both, AR4 and AR5.
We investigated how the interplay
between climate warming by GHGs and cooling by aerosols complicates the issue of
attribution to GHGs only, as phrased by the IPCC in 2007 in AR4.
Yet the preminary BEST study did not even address the
attribution question (the biggest bone of contention
between IPCC and its skeptics, which Dr. Curry has also addressed separately.
The BEST approach in determining the
attribution of the observed warming was a simple one, examining the correlations
between the various radiative forcings and the temperature data.
Despite the many unresolved issues touched on in this chapter and discussed in more detail in chapters 5 — 9, the progress that has been achieved over the past few years provides a basis for drawing some tentative conclusions concerning the nature of the observed differences
between surface and upper air temperature trends, and their implications for the detection and
attribution of global climate change.break
The carbon entity data allows for the differentiation
between carbon emissions, produced and marketed by each of the 90 major multi-national and state - owned coal, oil and gas companies (and their predecessors), and the total human
attribution on climate change impacts.
Point 17: The Beenstock study only shows that the correlation of the variability's
between T (t) and dCO2 / dt is quite good, it doesn't say anything about the
attribution of the offset and slope of dCO2 / dt, which is anyway from a different process than what caused the variability.
Also, this post reflects a confusion
between «
attribution» and «recognition of a climate problem» by stating «Wait a minute, what climate change problem?
One problem with the IPCC's
attribution statement illustrated by this statement from a document Lost in Translation: Closing the Gap
Between Climate Science and National Security Policy, published by the Center for a New American Security (which I also cited in the Uncertainty Monster paper):
A low confidence in climate
attribution results mainly from lack of monitoring, lack of a clear precipitation response, and inconsistency
between the direction of reported trends and trends documented in global observational products over the default period.
The iconic figure showing agreement
between simulated and observed global temperature over the 20th century should not be interpreted itself as the
attribution of anthropogenic influence on climate.
The inconsistency
between models and observations for tropical SST is even stronger than for global temperature — casting further doubt on IPCC's
attribution of the global inconsistency to «natural variability».
In addition, since undocumented changepoints can occur in all series, accurate
attribution of any particular discontinuity
between two climate series is more challenging (Menne and Williams, 2005).