A key point to note is that, by resetting the cumulative emissions baseline, the Millar et al
available emissions budget is insensitive to the actual cumulative emissions to date.
Not exact matches
If
emissions of other greenhouse gases and black carbon can be effectively reduced, this will increase slightly the
available carbon
budget,» Dr Partanen adds.
In other words — by 2014 we'd used more of the carbon
budget than any of the RCPs had anticipated and if we are not confident that the real world is cooler than the models at this level of cumulative
emissions, this means that
available emissions for 1.5 degrees should decrease proportionately.
If this is right, the Millar
available cumulative
emissions budget would be biased high.
20.5.3
Available budget for further
emissions consistent with the 2ºC guardrail stands at 750 GT CO2 (Charney).
It is designed to return
emissions to 350 ppm as quickly as possible (by close to 2050), which it does by limiting
emissions to nearly half of the 420 gigatonnes of CO2
budget available in his first pathway (as above).
Some assume we must stop all
emissions from deforestation immediately, so that all our remaining carbon
budget can be used for industrial
emissions, while others reckon we should keep part of the
budget available for continued deforestation.
In summary, a strong case can be made that the US
emissions reduction commitment for 2025 of 26 % to 28 % clearly fails to pass minimum ethical scrutiny when one considers: (a) the 2007 IPCC report on which the US likely relied upon to establish a 80 % reduction target by 2050 also called for 25 % to 40 % reduction by developed countries by 2020, and (b) although reasonable people may disagree with what «equity» means under the UNFCCC, the US commitments can't be reconciled with any reasonable interpretation of what «equity» requires, (c) the United States has expressly acknowledged that its commitments are based upon what can be achieved under existing US law not on what is required of it as a mater of justice, (d) it is clear that more ambitious US commitments have been blocked by arguments that alleged unacceptable costs to the US economy, arguments which have ignored US responsibilities to those most vulnerable to climate change, and (e) it is virtually certain that the US commitments can not be construed to be a fair allocation of the remaining carbon
budget that is
available for the entire world to limit warming to 2 °C.
Alongside this
budget is a projection of the current year's global
emissions, before the full year's data is
available.
If
emissions of other greenhouse gases and black carbon can be effectively reduced, this will increase slightly the
available carbon
budget,» Dr Partanen adds.
>> The
budget of c. 300GtC of
available carbon
emission before breaching the 2 °C policy target is seen to be an illusion.