With climate forecasting we are looking at
average climate over a period of time.
GCMs are intended to project (not predict)
average climate over the long term, and there has never been a claim that they could accurately predict short term variations that cancel out over several decades.
So for example a forecast of
average climate over 2029 - 2031 would be less believable than one over 2020 - 2040, because 20 - year averaging would remove many of the kinds of unpredictable phenomena such as volcanoes that could have a much bigger influence on the 2029 - 2031 average than on 2020 - 2040.
Example 4 (strawman argument): (4) I was referring to your quote: «For one thing long - term predictions of
the average climate over much less than ten - year periods are less plausible than over longer periods.»
Not exact matches
First in revenue and loan growth (adjusted for significant acquisitions) when
averaged over the one -, three -, and five - year periods, reflecting the fact that the Company continued to provide credit to consumers, small businesses, and commercial companies in the current credit
climate; and
It's more accurate to say that each week we have a small, statistically insignificant and wholly unreliable forecast for the coming week's market direction, but that when grouped
over a large number of instances, the differences in the
average return / risk profile of different Market
Climates are highly statistically significant.
The measures of valuation and market action that define each «Market
Climate» are factors that can be tested in decades of historical data, are objective, observable, and have strongly affected the
average profile of return and risk in the markets
over time.
He has not really addressed the fact that the notion of
climate, as distinct from the notion of weather, is not concerned with particular features of a single trajectory or history, but with the fact that there are some general features about certain kinds of time and system
averages over many trajectories - and that these
average features tend to show certain kinds of regularity or slow secular variation that are not apparent in a single trajectory (the term secular here has a technical meaning, not the common one of «not religious»).
Conrad New York offers a new standard of luxury, featuring spacious guestrooms that
average over 430 square feet, each outfitted with integrated technology, flat - screen televisions and individual
climate control, as well other unparalleled in - room amenities.
Home to
over 400 sweet potato growers, the state's hot, moist
climate and rich, fertile soil are ideal for cultivating sweet potatoes,
averaging at nearly 60 % of the U.S. supply.
The findings were not a total surprise, with future projections showing that even with moderate
climate warming, air temperatures
over the higher altitudes increase even more than at sea level, and that, on
average, fewer winter storm systems will impact the state.
Climate velocity was first established in 2009 in a study estimating that species would have to move about a quarter - mile a year on
average over the next 85 years.
«Our study illustrates that the complexity of
climate change, adaptation, and flood damage can be disentangled by surprisingly simple mathematical functions to provide estimates of the
average annual costs of sea - level rise
over a longer time period.»
But the team's measurements of the oxygen isotope ratios in the creatures» teeth, a sensitive paleo - thermometer, suggest that the
climate where these dinosaurs lived probably
averaged about 10 ° Celsius
over the course of a year — substantially colder than most of the dinosaur era, and in fact close to that seen in northeastern China today, Xu notes.
«This becomes even more critical when predicting
climate change
over a specific region like Alaska instead of the whole globe
averaged together.»
Conservative
climate models predict that
average temperatures in the US Midwest will rise by 4 °C
over the next century.
When in January rainfall was double the expected
average over wide areas, many people made cautious links between such extreme weather and global
climate change.
Looking at the locations of 1.5 billion lightning strokes from 2005 to 2016, the team found nearly twice as many lightning strokes on
average over major routes ships take across the northern Indian Ocean, through the Strait of Malacca and into the South China Sea, compared to adjacent areas of the ocean that have similar
climates.
He calls on Congress to take 5 % to 10 % of the funds that the United States gives to IPCC (which have
averaged about $ 3 million annually
over the last decade) and dedicate it to «a group of well - credentialed scientists to produce an assessment that expresses legitimate, alternative hypotheses that have been (in their view) marginalized, misrepresented or ignored in previous IPCC reports (and thus EPA and National
Climate Assessments).
But the questionnaire, which asks for
averages based on weather conditions
over the past 10 years, does not require cities to anticipate how
climate may change in the seven to eight years between bidding and hosting the games.
Climate, however, is the bigger picture of a region's weather: the
average,
over 30 years (according to the World Meteorological Association's definition), of the weather pattern in a region.
«
Over the next few decades, the majority of birds currently found across the National Park System are expected to experience changes in
climate conditions, which on
average may lead to turnover of nearly a quarter of the bird community per park,» says Gregor Schuurman, co-author on the study.
«Many studies have looked at
average snowfall
over a season in
climate models, but there's less known about these very heavy snowfalls,» says study author Paul O'Gorman, an associate professor in MIT's Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences.
Over this 100 - year period, O'Gorman found that
average snowfall decreased substantially in many Northern Hemisphere regions in warm -
climate scenarios compared with the milder control
climates, but that snowfall amounts in the largest snowstorms did not decrease to the same extent.
The findings show a slight but notable increase in that
average temperature, putting a dent in the idea that global warming has slowed
over the past 15 years, a trend highlighted in the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change report.
Scientists at the Alaska
Climate Research Center have found that
average temperatures there have increased by 3.5 degrees Fahrenheit (1.9 degrees Celsius)
over the last five decades and by 6.3 degrees Fahrenheit (3.5 degrees Celsius)
over the winters.
The jist of this is that we must NOT suddenly switch off carbon / sulphur producing industries
over the planet but instead we must first dramatically reduce CO2 emissions from every conceivable source, then gradually tackle coal / fossil fuel sources to smoothly remove the soot from the air to prevent a sudden leap in
average global temps which if it is indeed 2.75 C as the UNEP predicts will permanently destroy the
climates ability to regulate itself and lead to catastrophic changes on the land and sea.
There are some caveats with their study: The global
climate models (GCMs) do not reproduce the 1930 - 1940 Arctic warm event very well, and the geographical differences in a limited number of grid - boxes in the observations and the GCMs may have been erased through taking the
average value
over the 90 - degree sectors.
U.S. Data Since 1895 Fail To Show Warming Trend LINK WASHINGTON, Jan. 25 — After examining
climate data extending back nearly 100 years, a team of Government scientists has concluded that there has been no significant change in
average temperatures or rainfall in the United States
over that entire period.
Also, for those interested, on page 41 of the Arctic
Climate Impact Assessment Synthesis Report, is found a description of their Key Finding # 2 which includes the statement «
Climate models indicate that the local warming
over Greenland is likely to be one to three times the global
average.»
Mr. Cuccinelli is well known for his harassment of Michael Mann, a
climate scientist vilified by industry apologists for creating the «Hockey Stick» graph illustrating the increase of
average global temperature measurements
over the last millennium.
Climate trends are weather,
averaged out
over time - usually 30 years.
«Weather is what's happening
over a very short period of time, whereas
climate is what happens, on
average,
over a longer period.»
Similarly, all
climate models used in this assessment agree that the
average annual temperature in Montana will increase
over the next century.
In contrast, the balance shifts in a warming
climate, and on
average more new records highs than new record lows are set
over any time period.
Buildings across both regions were built for the historical
climate, which didn't require air conditioning, yet Colorado has seen
average temperatures rise 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit
over the past 50 years.
Climate change shifts the curve to the hotter side, moving the
average over.
In addition to supporting adaptation efforts through its pipeline of infrastructure projects (which will
average $ 1.1 billion per annum
over the next three years), the Bank is providing (in countries such as Morocco, Tunisia, Djibouti, and Yemen) knowledge and technical expertise for better analyzing likely impacts of
climate change, and for designing least - cost adaptation interventions to minimize such impacts.
In recent times,
climate skeptics have been peddling a lot of nonsense about
average temperatures actually cooling
over the last decade.
If we
average the incoming solar radiation that is absorbed by the earth's
climate over the surface of the earth we get around 239 W / m2.
, it amazes me how excitable PIs will bid up & eliminate any likely premium when a takeover is still only a possibility... In general, I would peg the
average deal premium at around 33 - 40 %, but this
average does expand and contract
over time depending on sector & the general investment «
climate `.
Given the coffee's brewed from extra-bold beans and served in a
climate where the last thing you crave while you're sweating through your shirt is a hot drink, the
average cup there is served
over ice and mixed with a healthy dose of condensed milk to make it a little more palpable.
For the most part, I've not seen much evidence to suggest that internal variations alone can bring the
climate to a new state on decadal timescales, even if the internal fluctuations do not completely
average out
over decades (e.g.,, the PDO being in a positive phase more than a negative phase during the timescale of consideration).
Your contention on noise doesn't make sense, it is only by
averaging over short - term variations that the long - term trend (
climate) emerges.
There are some caveats with their study: The global
climate models (GCMs) do not reproduce the 1930 - 1940 Arctic warm event very well, and the geographical differences in a limited number of grid - boxes in the observations and the GCMs may have been erased through taking the
average value
over the 90 - degree sectors.
This is an attempt to
average over the «weather» to understand the
climate.
A
climate statement would be that the
average temperature of the boiling water is 100ºC at normal pressure» What if your pot has a lid that has certain weight and might melt down
over the time?
A
climate statement would be that the
average temperature of the boiling water is 100ºC at normal pressure» What if your pot has a lid that has certain weight and might melt down
over the time?
By
climate, we mean the statistics of weather,
averaged over suitable time and perhaps space scales (more on this below).
In global
average, the number of unprecedented heat records
over the past ten years is five times higher than in a stationary
climate, based on 150,000 temperature time series starting in the year 1880.