Sentences with phrase «average climate projections»

«These profound and clearly projected changes make physical and statistical sense, but they are invisible when looking at long - term trends in average climate projections,» Gershunov said.

Not exact matches

The findings were not a total surprise, with future projections showing that even with moderate climate warming, air temperatures over the higher altitudes increase even more than at sea level, and that, on average, fewer winter storm systems will impact the state.

Traditionally, scientists have been studying recovery in terms of decades — but climate projections suggest that, on average, severe coral bleaching will become a yearly occurrence by mid-century under «business as usual» and for some reefs this will be far sooner.

When this model was then applied to the future, they found that in a world of continuing high greenhouse gas emissions, the threshold for widespread drought - induced vascular damage would be crossed and initiate widespread tree deaths on average across climate model projections in the 2050s.

Thus, scientists often make climate projections at coarse spatial resolution where each projected data point is an average value of a grid cell that measures hundreds of miles (kilometers) across.

Gerald A. Meehl, Haiyan Teng & Julie M. Arblaster, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado 80307, USA (http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v4/n10/full/nclimate2357.html): «The slowdown in the rate of global warming in the early 2000's is not evident in the multi-modal ensemble average of traditional climate change projection simulations.»

I read a comment by a skeptic that because climate model projections are «averaged over time» (ie.

Here's an illustration: the Figure below shows what happens when the average ± 4 Wm - 2 long - wave cloud forcing error of CMIP5 climate models [1], is propagated through a couple of Community Climate System Model 4 (CCSM4) global air temperature projeclimate models [1], is propagated through a couple of Community Climate System Model 4 (CCSM4) global air temperature projeClimate System Model 4 (CCSM4) global air temperature projections.

Figure 6: Easterbrook's two global temperature projections A (green) and B (blue) vs. the IPCC TAR simple model projection tuned to seven global climate models for emissions scenario A2 (the closest scenario to reality thus far)(red) and observed global surface temperature change (the average of NASA GISS, NOAA, and HadCRUT4)(black) over the period 2000 through 2011.

I merely propagate the global annual average long - wave cloud forcing error made by CMIP5 climate models, in annual steps through a projection.

With climate projections showing a trend to higher average and higher extreme temperatures across the West, it's likely that any drought will be more severe than it would have been without manmade warming, the study — along with others — warns.

The mean high temperature projections for 2050 and 2100 were derived from a suite of 28 climate models (CMIP5 / Oak Ridge National Laboratory) under IPCC emissions scenario RCP8.5, averaged over November 22 - 28 for 2030 - 2049 and 2080 - 2099, respectively.»

Model projections for precipitation changes are less certain than those for temperature.12, 2 Under a higher emissions scenario (A2), global climate models (GCMs) project average winter and spring precipitation by late this century (2071 - 2099) to increase 10 % to 20 % relative to 1971 - 2000, while changes in summer and fall are not expected to be larger than natural variations.

The global average sea level has already risen by about eight inches since 1901, with up to another two and a half feet of sea level rise possible by 2100, according to the most recent projections from the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Citing the work of Dr. John Christy and Richard McNider at the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH), which compared climate model projections with temperatures measured independently by satellites and weather balloons, he said «the average warming predicted to have occurred since 1979 (when the satellite data starts) is approximately three times larger than what is being observed.»

However, temperatures in recent years — both during the El Niño event and, more importantly, now that the El Niño event is over — are tracking rather close to the average projection of the climate models included in the latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (the CMIP5 mclimate models included in the latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (the CMIP5 mClimate Change (the CMIP5 models).

Sea - level projections by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), by our research group and by others indicate that global average sea level at the end of the century would likely be about 1 - 2.5 feet higher under the Paris path than in 2000.

Despite all the ludicrous adjustment machinations this newest NOAA revision relies on, the per century global warming trend fabricated (for the 1998 to 2012 period) remains well below even the IPCC's average climate model projections.

The current version of the figure gives the impression that the IPCC expected temperature to warm continuously year on year, which of course was not the expectation — the projections shown here are just the long - term trend either from averaging the GCMs or using simple climate models.

Although there have been jumps and dips, average atmospheric temperatures have risen little since 1998, in seeming defiance of projections of climate models and the ever - increasing emissions of greenhouse gases.»

The widespread trend of increasing heavy downpours is expected to continue, with precipitation becoming less frequent but more intense.13, 14,15,16 The patterns of the projected changes of precipitation do not contain the spatial details that characterize observed precipitation, especially in mountainous terrain, because the projections are averages from multiple models and because the effective resolution of global climate models is roughly 100 - 200 miles.

2: Our Changing Climate, Key Messages 5 and 6).4, 10 A range of model projections for the end of this century under a higher emissions scenario (A2), averaged over the region, suggests about 5 % to 20 % (25th to 75th percentile of model projections) increases in winter precipitation.

Tackling methane and soot could reduce the scientists» projections of average warming in 2050 by 40 percent, which could mean the difference between triggering serious feedbacks in the global climate systems or not.

The climate models considered on average simulate the amplitude of response to anthropogenic forcings well, increasing confidence in their projections of profound future Arctic climate change.

It is worth noting that the average impact estimates for the baseline period are quantitatively in agreement with reported figures at European level (see Alfieri et al. 2015b), thus supporting the suitability of the impact model and the underlying datasets for future climate projections.

The implicit assumption underlying all those multi-model projections and averages is that the model physical theory itself is physically complete and would yield a physically true representation of the climate if only the parameters were exactly known, along with the initial conditions.

Well, speaking only of Queensland, Chapter 11 of AR4 WG1, Regional Climate Projections, was very careful to make no specific projections for Australia and Queensland until 2080 - 2099 -LRB-(fig. 11.17), by when only those under 30 now are likely to be alive to verify whether its actual prediction of NO FLOODS in the Western Pacific proved correct: ALL 21 of the models deployed to make that prediction actually forecast precipitation at LESS than the average in 1Projections, was very careful to make no specific projections for Australia and Queensland until 2080 - 2099 -LRB-(fig. 11.17), by when only those under 30 now are likely to be alive to verify whether its actual prediction of NO FLOODS in the Western Pacific proved correct: ALL 21 of the models deployed to make that prediction actually forecast precipitation at LESS than the average in 1projections for Australia and Queensland until 2080 - 2099 -LRB-(fig. 11.17), by when only those under 30 now are likely to be alive to verify whether its actual prediction of NO FLOODS in the Western Pacific proved correct: ALL 21 of the models deployed to make that prediction actually forecast precipitation at LESS than the average in 1980 - 1999.

Arctic sea - ice has melted far beyond the expectations of climate models - about 40 percent greater than the average projection from the 2007 IPCC Report.

-- modelling procedure requires crude approximations over large grid cells, ignoring local climate and weather phenomena as large as hurricances — model projections are demonstrably unreliable at regional and local level: even those that appear to simulate the evolution of global temperature do so only by averaging hundreds of more or less wrong results for the grid cells.

«Two thirds of the 23 climate models used to inform Australian projections agree that rainfall will decrease in southern areas (for both the annual average and in winter), in southern and eastern areas in spring, and along the west coast in autumn (CSIRO and BoM 2007).

To make the IPCC projections of the evolution of the earth's average temperature better reflect the latest scientific estimates of the climate sensitivity, it is necessary to adjust them downward by about 30 % at the low end, about 50 % at the high end, and about 40 % in the middle.

At this point, the projections of climate change, assuming we continue business as usual, cluster around an estimate that average temperatures will be about 9 degrees Fahrenheit higher in 2100 than they were in 2000.

None of these could have been caused by an increase in atmospheric CO2, Model projections of warming during recent decades have greatly exceeded what has been observed, The modelling community has openly acknowledged that the ability of existing models to simulate past climates is due to numerous arbitrary tuning adjustments, Observations show no statistically valid trends in flooding or drought, and no meaningful acceleration whatsoever of pre-existing long term sea level rise (about 6 inches per century) worldwide, Current carbon dioxide levels, around 400 parts per million are still very small compared to the averages over geological history, when thousands of parts per million prevailed, and when life flourished on land and in the oceans.

Coupled with the average climate - change — driven rate of sea level rise over these same 25 y of 2.9 mm / y, simple extrapolation of the quadratic implies global mean sea level could rise 65 ± 12 cm by 2100 compared with 2005, roughly in agreement with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (AR5) model projeclimate - change — driven rate of sea level rise over these same 25 y of 2.9 mm / y, simple extrapolation of the quadratic implies global mean sea level could rise 65 ± 12 cm by 2100 compared with 2005, roughly in agreement with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (AR5) model projeClimate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (AR5) model projections.

Using existing output data from global climate models, the researchers plotted projections of changes in global average temperature and rainfall against regional changes in daily extremes.

Projections indicate that climate change may increase the average intensity of such storms by 2 — 11 % by 2100 so it's important to be able to predict the likely damage to crops that will ensue.