An average cyclical bull market will last 4 to 5 years.
Not exact matches
World growth will remain low on
average but negative in the UK and Europe; price inflation will remain sufficiently subdued for a while longer so as to impose no constraint on monetary expansion; central banks will sustain a regime of negative real interest rates and rapid monetary expansion; the risk of a eurozone collapse is off the table for now; finally, stock
markets should continue to perform better than expected, even though the four - year old
cyclical bull market is long by historical standards.
After the third longest
bull market advance on record, fresh deterioration in key trend - following components within our measures of
market internals (see Support Drops Away) recently joined this extended, overvalued, overbought, overbullish peak, even as the S&P 500 hovers at the top of its monthly Bollinger bands (two standard deviations above the 20 - period
average) and
cyclical momentum rolls over from a 9 - year high.
As the guys at Nautilus Capital note,
cyclical bull markets within secular bears have tended to
average just 26 months, with an
average gain of 85 %, while
cyclical bears within secular bears have
averaged 19 months, with steep
average losses of -39 %.
A
cyclical bull market, on
average, is about 4 - 5 years.