Historically, stocks have performed above
average during election years, but second - term election years have been the weakest going back to 1928, falling an average 4 percent.
Not exact matches
In second - term
election years, then, equities dipped an
average 4 percent, compared to an
average increase of 7 percent
during all
election years.
Analysts at investment research platform Seeking Alpha found that of all the months of the
year, October has historically experienced the most 1 - percent swings in either direction for the S&P 500 index — and
during election years, stocks have finished the month lower, on
average.
Since 1962, the
average peak - to - trough S&P 500 Index decline
during these
years was 19 %, although the past three midterm
election years averaged closer to a 10 % drop (the correction in February 2018 was approximately 10 %).
This should be worrying for Labour supporters, because as well as losing large amounts of support after every
election,
during their previous stints in government the Conservatives have also won back large amounts of support in the two
years prior to an
election with an
average gain of 18.5 % against Labour.