I guess the lesson for me is that if I'm buying a spread of cigar butt companies — a la Walter Schloss or Ben Graham — I'm not willing to pay a higher
average earnings multiple for a basket of high ROIC companies.
Because of mean reversion, I'd rather ignore ROIC — or give it minimal attention — if it allows me to buy a group of stocks with a lower
average earnings multiple.
Bottom line: Investors can access a portfolio of 25 top P&C insurance companies trading at below
average earnings multiples with the PowerShares KBW Property & Casualty Insurance Portfolio at a cost of just.35 % per year.
Not exact matches
Based on 2016
earnings of $ 16.2 billion, it's selling at a price - to -
earnings multiple of just 15, well below the market
average in the mid-20s.
Our 2013 year - end target of 1600 implies a 10 % price return, where most of the appreciation can be attributed to
earnings growth of 7 % next year, along with modest
multiple expansion from 14.2 x to 14.7 x on trailing
earnings, still below an
average PE of 16x.
In general, so - called value stocks — often defined as those trading at
earnings multiples below the market
average or their own historical norms — have tricked a lot of investors in the most recent phase of the current bull market, which has worn on nearly seven and a half years.
The S&P 500's forward price - to -
earnings ratio has slid from 18.6 on Jan. 26 to 17 on Feb. 5 to 16.2 entering this week — and 16.2 also happens to be exactly the five - year
average multiple.
The amounts are expressed as percentages of pre-retirement
earnings;
earnings are expressed as fractions or
multiples of
average wages and salaries (i.e. replacement rates); and the YMPE under the C / QPP serves as a proxy for
average wages and salaries.
Even industry competitors — like Ford, which trades at a ratio of 6.6, and Toyota, which trades at 9.7 times — trade at higher
multiples, and GM's
average price -
earnings ratio over the past five years is 12.2.
The green, orange, yellow, and red lines represent the projected total returns for the S&P 500 assuming terminal valuation
multiples of 20, 14 (
average), 11 (median) and 7 times normalized
earnings.
Financial transaction service providers globally trade at an
average price to
earnings multiple of about 24 times, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
«High
multiple stocks can become
average multiple stocks at the drop of a penny in expected
earnings.
This leaves roughly 1.4 % of historical long - term returns which can be attributed to past expansion in the Price /
Earnings multiple (i.e. over the past 50 years, prices have grown somewhat faster than the 5.7 % average rate of earnings
Earnings multiple (i.e. over the past 50 years, prices have grown somewhat faster than the 5.7 %
average rate of
earnings earnings growth).
The share price has fallen considerably from when we eliminated the position in the second quarter of 2014 when the business was valued at over 15x 2014
earnings, and we believe the business is now attractively valued at a below -
average multiple of 11x expected 2015
earnings.
Bill's main point here is that with the exception of the 1973 - 1974 bear market, the downturns that ended at single - digit price - to - peak
earnings multiples also started at below -
average multiples.
As usual, I don't place too much emphasis on this sort of forecast, but to the extent that I make any comments at all about the outlook for 2006, the bottom line is this: 1) we can't rule out modest potential for stock appreciation, which would require the maintenance or expansion of already high price / peak
earnings multiples; 2) we also should recognize an uncomfortably large potential for market losses, particularly given that the current bull market has now outlived the median and
average bull, yet at higher valuations than most bulls have achieved, a flat yield curve with rising interest rate pressures, an extended period of internal divergence as measured by breadth and other market action, and complacency at best and excessive bullishness at worst, as measured by various sentiment indicators; 3) there is a moderate but still not compelling risk of an oncoming recession, which would become more of a factor if we observe a substantial widening of credit spreads and weakness in the ISM Purchasing Managers Index in the months ahead, and; 4) there remains substantial potential for U.S. dollar weakness coupled with «unexpectedly» persistent inflation pressures, particularly if we do observe economic weakness.
Essentially, Selsick examined the Shiller P / E (the S&P 500 divided by the 10 - year
average of inflation - adjusted
earnings), and showed that the
multiple is even better correlated with actual subsequent S&P 500 total returns using 16 - year smoothing and a 16 - year investment horizon.
Trailing
earnings for the S&P 500 ended 2017 at nearly 22x, significantly above the 10 - year
average multiple of 15.7 x. Stocks have been expensive for some time, and while
earnings have been robust of late, price advances have more than kept pace.
The «normal cases» are future price / peak
earnings multiples of 14 (the historical
average) and 11 (the historical median).
Assume also that by 2010, the price / peak
earnings multiple simply touches its historical
average of 14 (forget that the typical
multiple has been less than 10 when
earnings have been at the top of that peak - to - peak growth channel - let's just assume the
multiple touches 14).
Technology and financial stocks have led the stock indexes higher, pushing the Dow Jones industrial
average to yet another record high, trading at a
multiple of 19.9 to TTM
earnings.
The last time bearish sentiment was below 20 %, at a 4 - year market high and a Shiller P / E above 18 (S&P 500 divided by the 10 - year
average of inflation - adjusted
earnings — the present
multiple is 23) was for two weeks in May 2007 with the S&P 500 about 1525.
Be wary anytime a stock trades for a price -
earnings multiple that is many times the
average for its competitors.
For above -
average volatility (the two bottom plots) the typical valuation
multiples are between about 10 times and 15 times the 10 - year
average of trailing real
earnings.
The risks are material if this bear market was to end at the
average price - to - peak
earnings multiple of past recessionary troughs.
Applying those
multiples to today's real 10 - year
averaged earnings ($ 55) would imply an S&P 500 Index of 825, 715, 550, and 385, respectively.
Most analysts who are forecasting stock market returns in line with historical
averages are not arguing for higher
multiples, but faster
earnings growth.
If you look at periods where the price / peak
earnings multiple was 16 or higher on the S&P 500, the final rate hike of a tightening cycle was actually associated with losses on an annualized total return basis,
averaging -7.18 % over the following 6 months, -9.94 % over the following 12 months, and -5.87 % over the following 18 months.
Forget all the mumbo jumbo, but basically this measurement shows that the U.S. market at the end of last year was at a twenty - six price - to -
earnings multiple, well above the long - run
average.
It sports the highest
average three - year
earnings - per - share growth rate at 77 % and has a modest book value
multiple of 0.9.
Eaton trades at a forward price - to -
earnings multiple of 14.2 and has a dividend yield of 3.7 %, which is higher than its five - year
average dividend yield of 3.1 %.
Over the long term, finance theory says that such stocks should theoretically earn less than the risk - free interest rate, and sell at above -
average price /
earnings multiples because they provide «insurance benefits» for a portfolio.
To be clear, many
average companies with significantly lesser
earnings power are trading at
earnings multiples approaching 2 to 3 times greater than many above -
average companies are trading at.
Specifically, the
average P / E on the S&P 500 (based on trailing net
earnings) was only 14 (with a median closer to 12), while the
average dividend yield was 3.75 % and the
average price / revenue
multiple was just 0.90.
But with the board now conceding cash generation is more important than
earnings growth / guidance, this gap should close, so a 1.0 P / S
multiple (based on an
average 10.8 % margin of $ 425 million) seems fair at this point.
a $ 2.7 billion EC fine), we arrive at an operating profit run - rate of $ 36 billion — at an
average 18 % tax rate, that implies a $ 29 billion net
earnings run - rate, for an ex-cash 21.9
earnings multiple.
Recognising the current & potential growth trajectory here, we should also factor /
average an appropriate
earnings multiple into our intrinsic value estimate: With earnings up 21 % & 70 % in the last two years, just about any multiple's justified... again, to be prudent, we'll limit ourselves to a 20.0 Price / Earnings ratio, based on a 123 cents adjusted diluted EPS H2 - 2015 run
earnings multiple into our intrinsic value estimate: With
earnings up 21 % & 70 % in the last two years, just about any multiple's justified... again, to be prudent, we'll limit ourselves to a 20.0 Price / Earnings ratio, based on a 123 cents adjusted diluted EPS H2 - 2015 run
earnings up 21 % & 70 % in the last two years, just about any
multiple's justified... again, to be prudent, we'll limit ourselves to a 20.0 Price /
Earnings ratio, based on a 123 cents adjusted diluted EPS H2 - 2015 run
Earnings ratio, based on a 123 cents adjusted diluted EPS H2 - 2015 run - rate:
This leaves roughly 1.4 % of historical long - term returns which can be attributed to past expansion in the Price /
Earnings multiple (i.e. over the past 50 years, prices have grown somewhat faster than the 5.7 % average rate of earnings
Earnings multiple (i.e. over the past 50 years, prices have grown somewhat faster than the 5.7 %
average rate of
earnings earnings growth).
The above -
average returns many countries experienced in the second half of last century resulted from the willingness of investors to pay increasingly higher
multiples for a stream of
earnings or dividends.
Shares of Caterpillar trade for 11.7 times trailing
earnings of $ 6.20 per share, well under the five year
average multiple of 18.2 times
earnings.
A 50 % decline in the S&P 500 Index would put the P / E
multiple at 14, still above the historical
average P / E that has been applied to record
earnings.
As an example, it is the «safe», high - income Utilities sector that today sports a historically high
multiple, while the «risky» Technology sector has an
earnings multiple below its long - term
average.
After the selloff on the share price, Monsanto is trading at just 16.1 times trailing
earnings and well below its five - year
average multiple of 24.9 times
earnings.
Historically, the market
multiple forward
multiple for the S&P has
averaged about 15 times forward
earnings today.
If you look at trailing 10 - year
earnings over the past 100 years, the
average P / E
multiple is about 18.