On
average earnings yields are 32 basis points over bond yields.
With earnings of about $ 100 per share and a price above 1500 points, today's
average earnings yield on the S&P 500 index is about 6.5 %.
The average earnings yield of April's pack was 6.99 % while June's pack generated an average earnings yield of 7.92 %.
Over the past 50 years,
the average earnings yield for the S&P 500 has outpaced inflation by 2.4 %.
Meanwhile, the stocks in the highest quintile, those with an average market price to book value ratio of 3.42 and
an average earnings yield of 0.147 (a P / E of 6.8), returned 1.3 % less than the market index over the four years after portfolio formation.
Not exact matches
The forward price /
earnings ratio of the top 25 % of S&P 500 stocks by dividend
yield is 17, vs. a 36 - year
average of 12, according to Ned Davis Research.
The stocks that hedge funds have largely ignored tend to be much larger than the hotels, have less debt, grow
earnings more slowly but consistently, and pay bigger dividends (an
average yield of nearly 3 % for the S&P 500 constituents, compared with 2 % for the index overall).
There is also opportunity abroad: Non-U.S. stocks with the highest dividend
yields (
average price /
earnings ratio of 15.8) are cheaper than domestic counterparts (23.1), according to O'Shaughnessy Asset Management.
Of course, in recent years, stock prices have grown much faster than
earnings and dividends, driving the P / E far above its historical
average and the dividend
yield (D / P) far below its historical
average.
These conditions comprise the following: S&P 500 overvalued with the Shiller P / E (the ratio of the S&P 500 to the 10 - year
average of inflation - adjusted
earnings) greater than 18; overbought with the S&P 500 within 3 % of its upper Bollinger band (2 standard deviations above the 20 - period
average) at daily, weekly, and monthly resolutions, more than 7 % above its 52 - week smoothing, and more than 50 % above its 4 - year low; overbullish with the 2 - week
average of advisory bullishness (Investors Intelligence) greater than 52 % and bearishness below 28 %; and
yields rising with the 10 - year Treasury bond
yield higher than 6 - months earlier.
As usual, I don't place too much emphasis on this sort of forecast, but to the extent that I make any comments at all about the outlook for 2006, the bottom line is this: 1) we can't rule out modest potential for stock appreciation, which would require the maintenance or expansion of already high price / peak
earnings multiples; 2) we also should recognize an uncomfortably large potential for market losses, particularly given that the current bull market has now outlived the median and
average bull, yet at higher valuations than most bulls have achieved, a flat
yield curve with rising interest rate pressures, an extended period of internal divergence as measured by breadth and other market action, and complacency at best and excessive bullishness at worst, as measured by various sentiment indicators; 3) there is a moderate but still not compelling risk of an oncoming recession, which would become more of a factor if we observe a substantial widening of credit spreads and weakness in the ISM Purchasing Managers Index in the months ahead, and; 4) there remains substantial potential for U.S. dollar weakness coupled with «unexpectedly» persistent inflation pressures, particularly if we do observe economic weakness.
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average hourly
earnings, Bunge Grain, cyclical, Fed, FOMC, Lael Brainard, nonfarm payrolls, tariffs, U.S. Dollar, U.S.
yield curves Posted in Currency, Debt Market, Fed, United States 14 Comments»
Looking at periods where the price to peak
earnings was above 19 and inflation and bond
yields were below 2.5 percent and 4.5 percent, respectively, stocks had an
average seven - year return of 6 percent.
Medium Risk — Growth (M / GRW) Lower to
average risk equities of companies with sound financials, consistent
earnings growth, the potential for long - term price appreciation, a potential dividend
yield, and / or share repurchase program.
For example, since 1950, the S&P 500 has enjoyed total returns
averaging 33.18 % annually during periods when the S&P 500 price / peak
earnings ratio was below 15 and both 3 - month T - bill
yields and 10 - year Treasury
yields were below their levels of 6 months earlier.
Earnings reports from some of the biggest U.S. companies at a decline in the ten - year treasury
yield combined to send the major
averages sharply higher.
Tags:
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earnings, Fed, FOMC, nonfarm payrolls, Yellen,
yield curves Posted in United States 8 Comments»
That's a 10 - 14 % pa
earnings yield on
average if
earnings don't grow, but bobble around the same level, indefinitely.
In this study, researchers analyzed the economic impact of six widely - used SEL programs and found that on
average, every dollar invested
yields $ 11 in long - term benefits, ranging from reduced juvenile crime, higher lifetime
earnings, and better mental and physical health.
Thus, an increase in the level of achievement in high school of a standard deviation
yields an
average increase of between $ 110,000 and $ 230,000 in lifetime
earnings.
This is true whether you measure S&P 500 valuation by the cyclically - adjusted price - to -
earnings ratio, the market - capitalization - to - GDP ratio, the price - to - book - value ratio, the
average dividend
yield, or most other valuation metrics.
One criterion Rea and Graham used required that the
earnings yield be at least twice the
average AAA corporate bond
yield.
The
earnings yield is greater than or equal to twice the
average AAA corporate bond rate (alternatively, the price -
earnings ratio is less than or equal to one - half of [100 ÷ the
average AAA corporate bond rate]-RRB-
Buying stocks with an
earnings yield at least twice that of the AAA bond rate would have generated an
average compound growth in price over the 50 - year period of 19.9 %, versus 7.5 % for the Dow Jones industrial
average;
An
average blue - chip company (represented by the S&P 500) has an
earnings yield around 6 %, he notes.
The relationship between bond and stock
earnings yields is a tenuous one operating over the long haul and on
average.
First — The 5.2 % estimate is derived from the
average of several methods that he uses, only one of which is the dividend
yield method (other include cyclically adjust
earnings and his own method of forward
earnings).
With 2 % TIPS, the balance (with eleven deposits) at year ten is $ 121.7 K. With ten years of dollar cost
averaging, the regression equation (starting in 1923 - 1980) for the final balance y is: y = 8685.9 x +98711, where x is the percentage
earnings yield 100E10 / P.
«It is not expensive... Today, on the real
earnings yield, the market is almost exactly at its long - term
average,» he said.
They are often characterized by low price - to -
earnings or price - to - book ratios and sometimes by higher than
average dividend
yields.
Bargain Issues — here Graham focuses on «
average past earning power» and compares it with current market value and recommends stocks which have high
earnings yield (i.e. low P / E) ratios based on
average plus a strong balance sheet.
Vertical factor: My Cyclically Adjusted P / E (Five year trailing triangular
average earnings divided by price) Hypothesis: The higher the CAPE Tri-5
earnings yield, the faster the market will rise.
[The percentage
earnings yield is 100 / [P / E10] where P / E10 is the current price of the S&P 500 index and E10 is the
average of the most recent ten years of
earnings.
Most of our investments have characteristics that have been associated empirically with above -
average investment rates of return over long measurement periods: a low stock price in relation to book value, a low price - to -
earnings ratio, a low price - to - cash - flow ratio, an above -
average dividend
yield, a low price - to - sales ratio compared to other companies in the same industry, a significant pattern of purchases by insiders, a significant decline in share price.
Earnings Yield reflects a company's past four - year average earnings before interest and tax, divided by its current enterprise value (enterprise value = market value + debt &mdash
Earnings Yield reflects a company's past four - year
average earnings before interest and tax, divided by its current enterprise value (enterprise value = market value + debt &mdash
earnings before interest and tax, divided by its current enterprise value (enterprise value = market value + debt — cash).
Under current conditions (record
earnings and a narrow
yield curve) profits have grown an
average of just 2.1 % annually over the next three years.
CMP trades at about 14x forward
earnings and offers a dividend
yield of 3.6 %, which is meaningfully higher than its five year
average dividend
yield of 2.7 % and a great starting base for investors living off dividends in retirement.
Using this data it is possible to infer the dividend
yield for each period that is used, along with the
average payout ratio, from the current MSCI data to calculate the
earnings per share and CAPE prior to 2005.
It looks like a good time to
average down as the stock
yields 3.4 % and the
earnings perform fine irrelevant of the price of oil (Heck I would argue the company does better in a low oil priced environment as it purchases oil to produce its products).
These companies have increased their dividend for at least 15 years and have a lower than
average price to
earnings (PE) ratio, a higher operating margin, a low price to book, a reasonable dividend
yield and payout ratio.
The «Implied portfolio return» is a weighted
average of the 10 - year Treasury
yield and the stock
earnings yield.
Looking at my charts, an
earnings yield 100E10 / P of 6 % defines when the upside from stocks has consistently overcome the downside risk (when compared to dollar cost
averaging into a 100 % TIPS portfolio).
DIV STRK is consecutive years of dividend increases; DIV YLD is
yield using the most recently announced dividend; 5 YR YLD is
average dividend
yield over the past 5 years; REC DG is most recent year - over-year dividend growth; 5 YR DG is
average annual dividend growth over the past 5 years; PRICE was at market close Friday, March 2; FAIR VAL is Morningstar's «Fair Value Estimate»; FWD P / E is price /
earnings ratio based on projected 2018
earnings; 5 YR P / E is
average P / E ratio over the past 5 years; MOAT is Morningstar's rating of competitive economic advantage; SFT is Value Line's «Safety» score; CRD is Standard & Poor's credit rating; MKT CAP is market cap in billions of dollars.
Eaton trades at a forward price - to -
earnings multiple of 14.2 and has a dividend
yield of 3.7 %, which is higher than its five - year
average dividend
yield of 3.1 %.
Siegel compares the change in the long - term
average dividend
yield with the change in long - term
average earnings growth.
While the
average dividend
yield dropped 162 basis points between the two periods,
average earnings growth increased 222 basis points.
V * = Intrinsic value EPS = Trailing twelve months
earnings / share 8.5 = P / E base for a no - growth company g = Expected long term
earnings growth rate 4.4 =
Average yield of high - grade corporate bonds in 1962, when the formula was introduced Y = Current average yield on 20 year AAA corporat
Average yield of high - grade corporate bonds in 1962, when the formula was introduced Y = Current
average yield on 20 year AAA corporat
average yield on 20 year AAA corporate bonds
Specifically, the
average P / E on the S&P 500 (based on trailing net
earnings) was only 14 (with a median closer to 12), while the
average dividend
yield was 3.75 % and the
average price / revenue multiple was just 0.90.
Value Investors thus select stocks with lower - than -
average price - to - book or price - to -
earnings ratios and / or high dividend
yields.
Emerson is A rated, offers an above -
average current
yield of 3.8 %, and is expected to return to historical
earnings growth levels in the future.