The resulting equity risk premium comes in at 3.8 per cent, well above the 10 - year
average equity risk premium for the index of 2.7 per cent.
Put another way, if
the average equity risk premium applied, the S&P / TSX's P / E would be at 25, and the index would be north of 16,000.
Not exact matches
4In fact, one book, Dow 36,000, which was published in 1999 shortly before the stock market peaked, argued that «fair value» for the Dow Jones Industrial
Average should be 36,000 because the appropriate
risk premium for the
equity market versus Treasury bonds should be zero.
The
equity risk premium will
average (arithmetically) only 4 - 5 %, significantly less than derived in prior analyses.
In other words, if cash historically returned about 1 % a year, then an
equity risk premium of +4 % would imply an
average return from
equities of 5 %.
Doing a very rough
average, and considering that the NASDAQ was in a boom period for most of the study period, I am comfortable with a reduction in the US
equity risk premium over bonds down to 1 - 2 % on
average, and over cash to 3 - 4 % on
average.
The chart [above] shows the weighted
average of the twenty - nine models for the one - month - ahead
equity risk premium, with the weights selected so that this single measure explains as much of the variability across models as possible (for the geeks: it is the first principal component).
The
equity risk premium can be thought of as a very subtle equilibrium, where the efficient investor who makes a 3 %
premium is the loss - leader to
equity issuers, and the
average investor more than makes up for this «expense» to the insiders.
If you are discounting the composite cash flows of a multinational company, the
equity risk premium should be a weighted
average of the
equity risk premiums of the countries that the company operates in, with the weights based on revenues or operating assets.
The study shows that Indians are
risk averse in general and they prefer low to medium
risk investments such as bank FD, real estate, gold etc. over
equity or
equity - linked products.It was found that the most common frequency of
premium payment is annual with an
average premium sum of Rs. 13000 and that 72 % people buy the insurance products from their banks.