The World Meteorological Organization's Annual Greenhouse Gas Bulletin raised serious concerns about a new high
average global concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
Not exact matches
Our Multi-Asset
Concentration index — a measure of correlations across 14
global asset classes — is hovering well below its post-crisis
average, according to our Risk and Quantitative Analysis group.
Most scientists and climatologists agree that weird weather is at least in part the result of
global warming — a steady increase in the
average temperature of the surface of the Earth thought to be caused by increased
concentrations of greenhouse gasses produced by human activity.
During the Eocene, the
concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was more than 560 parts per million, at least twice preindustrial levels, and the epoch kicked off with a
global average temperature more than 8 degrees Celsius — about 14 degrees Fahrenheit — warmer than today, gradually cooling over the next 22 million years.
To date, the
global average concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has increased by nearly 27 percent between 1960 and 2015, with the expectation of a continued rise in years to come, according to the researchers.
To achieve 450 ppm, the
concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere associated with a 2 - degree Celsius rise in
global average temperatures (a target advocated by the European Union), the «aggregate of fossil - fuel demand will peak out in 2020,» Tanaka says.
About 460 million years ago, the
concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere ranged somewhere between 14 and 22 times the current level, and the
average global temperature was about 5 °C higher than it is now.
These are, respectively, the upper «safe»
concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, and the upper «safe» limit of
average global temperature increase.
And even as the instruments in Hawaii indicated that we had reached the milestone, the
global average concentration of CO2 was a few points lower.
«(A) describe increased risks to natural systems and society that would result from an increase in
global average temperature 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (2 degrees Celsius) above the pre-industrial
average or an increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas
concentrations above 450 parts per million carbon dioxide equivalent; and
(«Most of the observed increase in
global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas
concentrations.»)
Second,
average global temperatures have been increasing, and it is very likely this is due in large part to the increased greenhouse gas
concentrations.
These rising atmospheric greenhouse gas
concentrations have led to an increase in
global average temperatures of ~ 0.2 °C decade — 1, much of which has been absorbed by the oceans, whilst the oceanic uptake of atmospheric CO2 has led to major changes in surface ocean pH (Levitus et al., 2000, 2005; Feely et al., 2008; Hoegh - Guldberg and Bruno, 2010; Mora et al., 2013; Roemmich et al., 2015).
If we continue we'll soon get close to 560 [double the carbon dioxide
concentration preceding the industrial revolution] or 2.3 (our estimate) to 3 (I.P.C.C.) degrees C. (4.1 - 5.4 degrees F.)
global average surface air warming.
They suggest this «pause» in the acceleration of carbon dioxide
concentrations was, in part, due to the effect of the temporary slowdown in
global average surface warming during that same period on respiration, the process by which plants and soils release CO2.
In order to keep the
global average temperature from warming no more than 2 °C by the year 2100 relative to the
global temperature prior to 1900, the
concentration of carbon dioxide must be capped at 450 parts per million.
[2] According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), most of the observed increase in
global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in human greenhouse gas
concentrations.
Yet to say that «Most of the observed increase in
global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic GHG
concentrations», science must «very likely» know everything important about the subject.
[1] CO2 absorbs IR, is the main GHG, human emissions are increasing its
concentration in the atmosphere, raising temperatures globally; the second GHG, water vapor, exists in equilibrium with water / ice, would precipitate out if not for the CO2, so acts as a feedback; since the oceans cover so much of the planet, water is a large positive feedback; melting snow and ice as the atmosphere warms decreases albedo, another positive feedback, biased toward the poles, which gives larger polar warming than the
global average; decreasing the temperature gradient from the equator to the poles is reducing the driving forces for the jetstream; the jetstream's meanders are increasing in amplitude and slowing, just like the lower Missippi River where its driving gradient decreases; the larger slower meanders increase the amplitude and duration of blocking highs, increasing drought and extreme temperatures — and 30,000 + Europeans and 5,000 plus Russians die, and the US corn crop, Russian wheat crop, and Aussie wildland fire protection fails — or extreme rainfall floods the US, France, Pakistan, Thailand (driving up prices for disk drives — hows that for unexpected adverse impacts from AGW?)
It is extremely likely that more than half of the observed increase in
global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas
concentrations and other anthropogenic forcings together.
Shakhova et al (2013) show shipboard measurements of methane
concentrations in the air above the ESAS that are almost twice as high as the
global average (which is already twice as high as preindustrial).
AR4: Most of the observed increase in
global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas
concentrations.
... Polar amplification explains in part why Greenland Ice Sheet and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet appear to be highly sensitive to relatively small increases in CO2
concentration and
global mean temperature... Polar amplification occurs if the magnitude of zonally
averaged surface temperature change at high latitudes exceeds the globally
averaged temperature change, in response to climate forcings and on time scales greater than the annual cycle.
AR5: It is extremely likely that more than half of the observed increase in
global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas
concentrations and other anthropogenic forcings together.
Narrowly scoped, the present situation is either strictly caused by solar variations (in which case I believe the «solar variation» crowd will inappropriately gain credibility over the next 10 to 20 years as we work through the next below
average solar cycle or two), or strictly caused by CO2
concentrations (in which case I believe the «CO2
concentrations» crowd will inappropriately lose credibility as the non-linear relationship (sensitivity is based on doublings, not linear increases) between increased CO2
concentrations, and forecasts for below
average solar cycles reduces the longer term upward trend in
global temperatures).
The study, described in an article today in The Times, finds that poorly understood variations in water vapor
concentrations in the stratosphere were probably responsible for a substantial wedge of the powerful warming trend in the 1990s and a substantial portion of «the flattening of
global average temperatures since 2000 ″ (to anyone who hates talk of plateaus and the like, those are the authors» words, not mine).
Many of the experts (like Dr Hansen) dealing with
global warming rightfully only look at what they think is going on and since the
concentration of carbon dioxide (although I still have no idea how they can get an
average concentration reading instantly all over the world) has increased, the culprit of
global warming is this increase of carbon dioxide.
If one postulates that the
global average surface temperature tracks the CO2
concentration in the atmosphere, possibly with some delay, then when the CO2
concentration continues to rise monotonically but the
global average surface temperature shows fluctuations as a function of time with changes in slope (periods wherein it decreases), then you must throw the postulate away.
If we continue we'll soon get close to 560 [double the carbon dioxide
concentration preceding the industrial revolution] or 2.3 (our estimate) to 3 (I.P.C.C.) degrees C. (4.1 - 5.4 degrees F.)
global average surface air warming.
(In the
global time
average, diffusion of latent heat is in the same direction as sensible heat transport, but latent heat will tend to flow from higher to lower
concentrations of water vapor (or equilibrium vapor pressure at the liquid / solid water surface), and regionally / locally, conditions can arise where the latent heat and sensible heat fluxes are oppositely directed.)
It is likely that the change in temperature due to the change in
concentration was more like when CO2 reached 280ppm from 140ppm the
global average temperature would have rose roughly 2 Deg.
'' If and when CO2
concentration in the atmosphere reaches 550 ppm, what will be the increase in
global average surface temperature relative to the year 2000?»
This seems to misunderstand the climate system lag time: «If and when CO2
concentration in the atmosphere reaches 550 ppm, what will be the increase in
global average surface temperature relative to the year 2000?»
Second,
average global temperatures have been increasing, and it is very likely this is due in large part to the increased greenhouse gas
concentrations.
Taking account of their historic responsibility, as well as the need to secure climate justice for the world's poorest and most vulnerable communities, developed countries must commit to legally binding and ambitious emission reduction targets consistent with limiting
global average surface warming to well below 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels and long - term stabilization of atmospheric greenhouse gas
concentrations at well below below 350 p.p.m., and that to achieve this the agreement at COP15 U.N.F.C.C.C. should include a goal of peaking
global emissions by 2015 with a sharp decline thereafter towards a
global reduction of 85 percent by 2050,
Recognizes that warming of the climate system is unequivocal and that most of the observed increase in
global average temperatures since the mid twentieth century is very likely due to the increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas
concentrations, as assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change in its Fourth Assessment Report;
«Drawdown» refers to the point at which greenhouse gas
concentrations in the atmosphere begin to decline on a yearly basis, and is the goal for reversing climate change and reducing
global average temperatures.
Atmospheric CO2
concentrations increased by 2.8 ppm in 2013, reaching a
global average of 395.3 ppm for the year.
In March 2015
global averages reached this threshold, and in September 2016 the world reached a point of no - return: CO2
concentration levels are unlikely to dip below 400 ppm again.
In fact, both
average CO2
concentrations AND
average global temperature have been significantly HIGHER than today for fully 80 % of the last 1 BILLION years.
Climate scientists have already shown that increasing greenhouse gas
concentrations as a consequence of human activity are partially responsible for the
average global increase in heavy precipitation.
In 2013, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report stated a clear expert consensus that: «It is extremely likely [defined as 95 - 100 % certainty] that more than half of the observed increase in
global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the anthropogenic [human - caused] increase in greenhouse gas
concentrations and other anthropogenic forcings together.»
(ppm) Year of Peak Emissions Percent Change in
global emissions Global average temperature increase above pre-industrial at equilibrium, using «best estimate» climate sensitivity CO 2 concentration at stabilization (2010 = 388 ppm) CO 2
global emissions
Global average temperature increase above pre-industrial at equilibrium, using «best estimate» climate sensitivity CO 2 concentration at stabilization (2010 = 388 ppm) CO 2
Global average temperature increase above pre-industrial at equilibrium, using «best estimate» climate sensitivity CO 2
concentration at stabilization (2010 = 388 ppm) CO 2 - eq.
Multiple independent analyses of long - term temperature records show
average global temperatures rising as greenhouse gas
concentrations have risen.
The statement in IPCC with which you take issue was «Most of the observed increase in
global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas
concentrations» so it's not 20 years either.
For the first time since the federal government began tracking carbon dioxide in the
global atmosphere, the monthly
average concentration of this greenhouse gas surpassed 400 parts per million in March 2015, according to latest results.
Concentrations of heat trapping carbon dioxide in the atmosphere reached a record
global average in March, underscoring the crucial importance of reaching an effective universal climate change agreement in Paris at the end of... Read more
That is why, to us, the rise in the
concentration of these greenhouse gases manifests itself as
global warming, a rise in the
average temperatures over the Earth's surface.
Partail statement: «The
average global air temperature changes as
concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere vary.»
Is there any reliable, well documented estimate of the discounted damage costs attributable to increasing CO2
concentration, or to an increase in
average global temperature?