Obviously this conspiracy theory is utterly absurd, and is easily disproven by simply examining the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) published in 2001, two years before Mörner's accusation of falsified sea level data, which shows an approximately 10 to 15 mm rise in
average global sea level from 1993 to 1998 (Figure 3).
Not exact matches
We have much better — and more conclusive — evidence for climate change
from more boring sources like
global temperature
averages, or the extent of
global sea ice, or thousands of years» worth of C02
levels stored frozen in ice cores.
The team found that results
from the two methods roughly matched and showed that Greenland is losing enough ice to contribute on
average 0.46 millimetres per year to
global sea -
level rise.
The report's authors, who also include scientists
from federal agencies, Columbia University and the South Florida Water Management District, concluded that evidence supports a «worst - case»
global average sea -
level rise of about 8.2 feet by 2100.
Rob and Dave's research found that these processes give rise to the potential for more than one meter of
global average sea -
level rise
from Antarctica alone over the course of this century, and more than 15 meters over the next five centuries.
The Fourth Assessment Report finds that «Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident
from observations of increases in
global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising mean
sea level.
Take South Florida, where, a few years back, the rate of
sea level rise shot up
from close to the
global average to something much higher.
Ocean heating accounts for about 40 percent of
global sea level rise, because water expands as it warms up;
global average sea level from January through November was also a record high, the WMO said.
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident
from observations of increases in
global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising
global average sea level.
For example, the latest (fifth) assessment report
from the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects that the
global average sea level rise over the course of the 21st century would be in the range of 10 to 32 inches, with a mean value of about 19 inches.
The
global average sea level has already risen by about eight inches since 1901, with up to another two and a half feet of
sea level rise possible by 2100, according to the most recent projections
from the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Global sea -
level rise is accelerating:
from 1993 to 2003 the rate was 70 percent higher than the
average rate for the twentieth century.
As you are aware there are major local variations
from the
global pattern, with coastal land in some regions sinking faster than the
average and in other regions being uplifted with respect to mean
sea level.
Sea level equivalent (SLE)- The change in global average sea level that would occur if a given amount of water or ice were added to or removed from the ocea
Sea level equivalent (SLE)- The change in
global average sea level that would occur if a given amount of water or ice were added to or removed from the ocea
sea level that would occur if a given amount of water or ice were added to or removed
from the oceans.
Hence, at any location around or within the oceans, the observed
sea level trend can differ significantly
from the
global average.
From this it can be seen that in some places
sea level trend is rising whilst in others it is falling, so giving a
global average disguises the nuances of what is happening locally, where it matters.
The Fourth Assessment Report finds that «Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident
from observations of increases in
global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising mean
sea level.
Their 0.2 mm / yr figure is taken to be consistent with an observed total
sea level rise of 1.6 mm / yr
from JASON - 1 and 2, but
global averages from those satellites indicate a rise of about 2.5 mm / yr over the same period.
«Our results
from this study imply that if future anthropogenic warming effects in the Indo - Pacific warm pool dominate natural variability, mid-ocean islands such as the Mascarenhas Archipelago, coasts of Indonesia, Sumatra, and the north Indian Ocean may experience significantly more
sea level rise than the
global average,» Han said.
The most recent report
from the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projected a
global average sea level rise of between about one to three feet, although that report did not take the new findings on Antarctic ice melt into account.
Global sea ice (Arctic plus Antarctic) continues to track at record low
levels in the satellite record, but the deviation
from average has moderated compared to what was observed in November.
Sea level is projected to rise by another 1 to 4 feet in this century, although the rise in sea level in specific regions is expected to vary from this global average for a number of reaso
Sea level is projected to rise by another 1 to 4 feet in this century, although the rise in
sea level in specific regions is expected to vary from this global average for a number of reaso
sea level in specific regions is expected to vary
from this
global average for a number of reasons.
A layperson can easily look up previous inter-glacial periods and see they ALL had higher temperatures, higher
sea levels and a variety of CO2
levels (which had NO effect on
global warming) ALL previous I - G periods became significantly warmer than our current
average global temperatures, with
sea levels ranging
from 6mtrs to 12mtrs (20ft to 40ft) higher than today.
Observed changes in (a)
global average surface temperature; (b)
global average sea level rise
from tide gauge (blue) and satellite (red) data and (c) Northern Hemisphere snow cover for March - April.
Figure 3:
Global mean sea level variations (light line) computed from the TOPEX / POSEIDON satellite altimeter data compared with the global averaged sea surface temperature variations (dark line) for 1993 to
Global mean
sea level variations (light line) computed
from the TOPEX / POSEIDON satellite altimeter data compared with the
global averaged sea surface temperature variations (dark line) for 1993 to
global averaged sea surface temperature variations (dark line) for 1993 to 1998.
The evidence comes
from direct measurements of rising surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures and, indirectly,
from increases in
average global sea levels, retreating glaciers, and changes in many physical and biological systems.
(1) there is established scientific concern over warming of the climate system based upon evidence
from observations of increases in
global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising
global average sea level;
Fluctuations in the mass of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are of considerable societal importance as they impact directly on
global sea levels: since 1901, ice losses
from Antarctica and Greenland, alongside the melting of small glaciers and ice caps and thermal expansion of the oceans, have caused
global sea levels to rise at an
average rate of 1.7 mm / yr.
The mean
sea level evolution estimated in the
global ocean is derived
from box -
averaged gridded
sea level maps weighted by the cosine of the latitude.
Accounting for the TOPEX - A instrumental correction for the first 6 years of the altimetry data set, these studies provided a revised
global mean
sea level time series that slightly reduces the
average GMSL rise over the altimetry era (
from 3.3 mm / yr to 3.0 mm / yr) but shows clear acceleration over 1993 - present.
Global mean sea level (eg - the global average height of the ocean) has typically been calculated from tidal g
Global mean
sea level (eg - the
global average height of the ocean) has typically been calculated from tidal g
global average height of the ocean) has typically been calculated
from tidal gauges.
There is medium confidence that at least partial deglaciation of the Greenland ice sheet, and possibly the West Antarctic ice sheet, would occur over a period of time ranging
from centuries to millennia for a
global average temperature increase of 1 - 4 °C (relative to 1990 - 2000), causing a contribution to
sea -
level rise of 4 - 6 m or more.
Estimates of ice volume in northern hemisphere permafrost range
from 1.1 to 3.7 x1013 m3 (Zhang et al., 1999), equivalent to 0.03 to 0.10 m of
global -
average sea level.
Melting of ice raises the
global average sea level, and reduces the gravitational attraction
from the ice, which allows the
sea level near the ice to fall while
sea level far
from the ice rises more than the
global average.
Statistically significant trends obtained
from records longer than 40 years yielded
sea -
level - rise estimates between 1.06 — 1.75 mm / yrear - 1, with a regional
average of 1.29 mm yr - 1, when corrected for
global isostatic adjustment (GIA) using model data, with a regional
average of 1.29 mm - 1..
Since the 1920s, the
global average sea level has risen about nine inches, mostly
from the thermal expansion of the ocean water.
Amrit Banstola: The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) stated that — warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident
from scientific observations of increases in
global average temperature, melting of snow and ice, and rising of
global average sea level.
For example, the melting of the Greenland ice sheet broke previous records in 2002, 2005, and 2007, and seasonal melting
from 1996 to 2007 was above average compared with the 1973 - 2007 period.10, 11 The melting of the Greenland ice sheet contributed around 0.02 inch (0.6 millimeter) to global sea - level rise in 2005 — more than double the 1996 contribution.4 From 1993 to 2003 the average rate of sea - level rise increased to about 0.12 inches (3.1 millimeters) per year.12 That means that in 2005 Greenland could have contributed 19 percent of the average annual global sea level rise r
from 1996 to 2007 was above
average compared with the 1973 - 2007 period.10, 11 The melting of the Greenland ice sheet contributed around 0.02 inch (0.6 millimeter) to
global sea -
level rise in 2005 — more than double the 1996 contribution.4
From 1993 to 2003 the average rate of sea - level rise increased to about 0.12 inches (3.1 millimeters) per year.12 That means that in 2005 Greenland could have contributed 19 percent of the average annual global sea level rise r
From 1993 to 2003 the
average rate of
sea -
level rise increased to about 0.12 inches (3.1 millimeters) per year.12 That means that in 2005 Greenland could have contributed 19 percent of the
average annual
global sea level rise rate.
Different approaches have been used to compute the mean rate of 20th century
global mean
sea level (GMSL) rise
from the available tide gauge data: computing
average rates
from only very long, nearly continuous records; using more numerous but shorter records and filters to separate nonlinear trends
from decadal - scale quasi-periodic variability; neural network methods; computing regional
sea level for specific basins then
averaging; or projecting tide gauge records onto empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) computed
from modern altimetry or EOFs
from ocean models.
Rob and Dave's research found that these processes give rise to the potential for more than one meter of
global average sea -
level rise
from Antarctica alone over the course of this century, and more than 15 meters over the next five centuries.
As Media Matters has noted, the IPCC's 2007 «Synthesis Report» concluded that» [w] arming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident
from observations of increases in
global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising
global average sea level» and that» [m] ost of the observed increase in
global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely [defined in the report as a» > 90 %» probability] due to the observed increase in anthropogenic [human - caused] GHG [greenhouse gas] concentrations.»
The IPCC has already concluded that it is «virtually certain that human influence has warmed the
global climate system» and that it is «extremely likely that more than half of the observed increase in
global average surface temperature
from 1951 to 2010» is anthropogenic.1 Its new report outlines the future threats of further
global warming: increased scarcity of food and fresh water; extreme weather events; rise in
sea level; loss of biodiversity; areas becoming uninhabitable; and mass human migration, conflict and violence.
If this rate were maintained, the ice sheets would make a measurable but minor contribution to the
global sea level rise
from other sources, which has been 1 - 2 mm / yr
averaged over the past century and 3mm / yr for 1993 - 2003, and is projected to
average 1 - 9 mm / yr for the coming century (see IPCC Third Assessment Report).
...
Averaged over the
global ocean surface, the mean rate of
sea level change due to GIA is independently estimated
from models at -0.3 mm / yr (Peltier, 2001, 2002, 2009; Peltier & Luthcke, 2009).
Since 1992,
global mean
sea level can be computed at 10 - day intervals by
averaging the altimetric measurements
from the TOPEX / Poseidon (T / P) and Jason satellites over the area of coverage (66 ° S to 66 ° N)(Nerem and Mitchum, 2001).