Assuming the IEO2011 Reference case of «1 trillion metric tons of additional cumulative energy - related carbon dioxide emissions between 2009 and 2035», and given that this case equates to following RCP8.5 until 2035 as previously demonstrated @ 408, what increase in
average global surface temperature relative to pre-industrial would result by 2035?
Finally, to revisit the question originally posed @ 203: Assuming the IEO2011 Reference case of «1 trillion metric tons of additional cumulative energy - related carbon dioxide emissions between 2009 and 2035», and given that this case equates to following RCP8.5 until 2035 as previously demonstrated @ 408, what increase in
average global surface temperature relative to pre-industrial would result by 2035?
Not exact matches
*
Surface temperature changes
relative to 20th Century
global average (1901 - 2000) Source data NOAA - NCEI State of the Climate: Global Analysis [Web + data dow
global average (1901 - 2000) Source data NOAA - NCEI State of the Climate:
Global Analysis [Web + data dow
Global Analysis [Web + data download]
(a)
Global surface temperature record (1870 — 2010) relative to the average global surface temperature for 1961 — 1990 (black
Global surface temperature record (1870 — 2010)
relative to the
average global surface temperature for 1961 — 1990 (black
global surface temperature for 1961 — 1990 (black line).
The efficacy of a forcing is the climate sensitivity (in terms of
global average surface temperature change per unit
global average RF) of that forcing
relative to a standard type of forcing.
(and not allowing
surface temperature variation to increase so much that the
average temperature drops significantly
relative to
global average OLR)
'' If and when CO2 concentration in the atmosphere reaches 550 ppm, what will be the increase in
global average surface temperature relative to the year 2000?»
This seems to misunderstand the climate system lag time: «If and when CO2 concentration in the atmosphere reaches 550 ppm, what will be the increase in
global average surface temperature relative to the year 2000?»
Observed (black) and predicted (blue)
global average annual
surface temperature difference
relative to 1981 - 2010.
Maps show projected change in
average surface air
temperature in the later part of this century (2071 - 2099)
relative to the later part of the last century (1970 - 1999) under a scenario that assumes substantial reductions in heat trapping gases (B1) and a higher emissions scenario that assumes continued increases in
global emissions (A2).
Running twelve - month
averages of
global - mean and European - mean
surface air
temperature anomalies
relative to 1981 - 2010, based on monthly values from January 1979 to March 2018.
Running twelve - month
averages of
global - mean and European - mean
surface air
temperature anomalies
relative to 1981 - 2010, based on monthly values from January 1979 to April 2018.
Running twelve - month
averages of
global - mean and European - mean
surface air
temperature anomalies
relative to 1981 - 2010, based on monthly values from January 1979 to February 2018.
GISS measures the change in
global surface temperatures relative to
average temperatures from 1951 to 1980.
They found that
averaged sea
surface temperatures over the MDR are the best predictor of Atlantic cyclone activity, followed by
global average surface temperature, with MDR warming
relative to the tropics being the worst predictor of hurricane activity (Figure 1).
Global surface temperatures from 1870 to 2010, (a) The black line shows global surface temperatures (1870 — 2010) relative to the 1961 - 1990 av
Global surface temperatures from 1870 to 2010, (a) The black line shows
global surface temperatures (1870 — 2010) relative to the 1961 - 1990 av
global surface temperatures (1870 — 2010)
relative to the 1961 - 1990
average.
If there is deep - water formation in the final steady state as in the present day, the ocean will eventually warm up fairly uniformly by the amount of the
global average surface temperature change (Stouffer and Manabe, 2003), which would result in about 0.5 m of thermal expansion per degree celsius of warming, calculated from observed climatology; the EMICs in Figure 10.34 indicate 0.2 to 0.6 m °C — 1 for their final steady state (year 3000)
relative to 2000.
The
temperature changes are
relative to the
global average surface temperature of 1961 - 1990.
ECS is the increase in the
global annual mean
surface temperature caused by an instantaneous doubling of the atmospheric concentration of CO2
relative to the pre-industrial level after the model relaxes to radiative equilibrium, while the TCR is the
temperature increase
averaged over 20 years centered on the time of doubling at a 1 % per year compounded increase.
Global average surface temperature relative to the 1850 - 1880 mean.
Figure 1: Observed and predicted
global average annual
surface temperature difference
relative to 1971 - 2000.
Current models suggest ice mass losses increase with
temperature more rapidly than gains due to increased precipitation and that the
surface mass balance becomes negative (net ice loss) at a
global average warming (
relative to pre-industrial values) in excess of 1.9 to 4.6 °C.
Image to right — Looking at
Average Monthly
Global Temperatures: This is a global map of unusual (anomaly) monthly - mean surface temperatures for the year 2004 relative to the 1951 - 1980 bas
Global Temperatures: This is a global map of unusual (anomaly) monthly - mean surface temperatures for the year 2004 relative to the 1951 - 19
Temperatures: This is a
global map of unusual (anomaly) monthly - mean surface temperatures for the year 2004 relative to the 1951 - 1980 bas
global map of unusual (anomaly) monthly - mean
surface temperatures for the year 2004 relative to the 1951 - 19
temperatures for the year 2004
relative to the 1951 - 1980 baseline.
Our findings suggest that extending the current INDCs out to 2100,
global average surface temperature would rise to 2.6 - 3.1 C,
relative to pre-industrial levels.
Seasonal,
global surface air
temperature anomalies from boreal spring 1979 to autumn 2017
relative to the respective seasonal
average for the period 1981 - 2010.
Annual
global surface air
temperature anomalies from 1979 to 2017
relative to the annual
average for the period 1981 - 2010.
This paper assesses the three pathways in the light of Working Group I's recently released contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC 2013), which provided three specific
global carbon dioxide (CO2) budgets, and associated them with specific risks of a
global surface temperature increase of more than 2 °C by the end of this century,
relative to the 1850 — 1900
average.