This product is a global - scale climate diagnostic tool and provides a big picture overview of
average global temperatures compared to a reference value.
He noted that
the average global temperature compared with the early 1900s is now expected to increase by 1.5 degrees Celsius within the next 15 to 35 years, which he called «a tipping point» toward aggressive climate change.
Not exact matches
But rather than using the baselines those agencies employ, Climate Central
compared 2016's
temperature anomalies to an 1881 - 1910
average temperature baseline, the earliest date for which
global temperature data are considered reliable.
If
global warming continues unabated, by 2100,
average global temperatures could rise by 4.25 degrees Celsius
compared with current
temperatures.
In the latter half of the decade, La Niña conditions persisted in the eastern and central tropical Pacific, keeping
global surface
temperatures about 0.1 degree C colder than
average — a small effect
compared with long - term
global warming but a substantial one over a decade.
Results of a new study by researchers at the Northeast Climate Science Center (NECSC) at the University of Massachusetts Amherst suggest that
temperatures across the northeastern United States will increase much faster than the
global average, so that the 2 - degrees Celsius warming target adopted in the recent Paris Agreement on climate change will be reached about 20 years earlier for this part of the U.S.
compared to the world as a whole.
The
average global temperature would increase by 2.6 degrees Celsius by the year 2100
compared to pre-industrial times.
Here the
average global temperature would increase by around 4.6 degrees Celsius by the year 2100
compared to pre-industrial times.
To show how close the world already is to surpassing those limits, Climate Central has been reanalyzing the
global temperature data by
averaging the NASA and NOAA numbers and
comparing them to a baseline closer to preindustrial times.
To show how close the world already is to reaching that limit, Climate Central has been reanalyzing the
global temperature data each month,
averaging together the NASA and NOAA numbers and
comparing them to the
average from 1881 - 1910, a time period closer to preindustrial times.
The graphic displays monthly
global temperature data from the U.K. Met Office and charts how each month
compares to the
average for the same period from 1850 - 1900, the same baselines used in the most recent report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Fig. 4 The «Cold Sun» forecast of Vahrenholt and Lüning
compared with
global surface
temperatures of the British Meteorological Service (HadCRUT data), moving
average over 23 months to end of October 2016.
Fig. 5 The «Cold Sun» forecast of Vahrenholt and Lüning
compared with
global surface
temperatures of the British Meteorological Service (HadCRUT data), running
average over 37 months.
According to the published report, there is no longer a discrepancy in the rate of
global average temperature increase for the surface
compared with higher levels in the atmosphere.
In 2) i wanted to discuss the different forcing efficacies of solar shortwave
compared to anthro fossil carbon combustion upon
global average surface
temperature, rather than the emission
temperature at top of atmosphere
The standstil of
global average temperature predicted by the «improved» modell
compared to warming predicted from the «old» modell is nothing that happens in the future, it should have happened (but did not happen) in the past, from 1985 to 1999: The «improved» modell (green graph) shows that the
global average temperature did not change from 1985 (= mean 1980 - 1990) to 1999 (= mean 1994 to 2004).
why don't you
compare the IPCC 2001
global temperature rise predictions to current
global means (year
averages or rolling
averages — whatever you want).
[28] I fear the irrational policies of extreme environmentalists far more that a warmer climate on this relatively cold planet (14.5 C
global average temperature today
compared with 25C during the Greenhouse Ages.
They will point you to a regional event during the middle ages, call it the MWP, and then
compare it to
global average temperature today.
dCO2 / dt happens with little or no lag when
compared to
temperature (both using
global averages — which introduces its own complexities).
Also in my opinion,
averaged global temperature has very little meaning, but such as it is, I would like to see the same methodology applied to all prominent variables and not start
comparing temperatures globally with CO2 locally, as is happening now.
The scientists, using computer models,
compared their results with observations and concluded that
global average annual
temperatures have been lower than they would otherwise have been because of the oscillation.
From such a
temperature distribution one may derive a mean
global surface
temperature and may
compare it with the globally
average near - surface
temperature for the real Earth - atmosphere system of about 288 K.
The Paris agreement, at minimum, aims to keep the rise in
average global temperatures «well below» 2 degrees C
compared to pre-industrial levels.
In fact, significant emission reductions of 60 % -80 %
compared to 1990 will be necessary by 2050 to reach the strategic objective of limiting the
global average temperature increase to not more than 2 °C above pre-industrial levels.
Yes it is so much more difficult to respond to a change in CO2, which will give rise to a 2 degree doubling of «
average»
global temperature, from 1750 to 2050,
compared with an ELE that happens in hours.
The Arctic has been warming at more than twice the rate of the globe as a whole, with
average temperatures today 5.4 °F (3 °C) above what they were at the beginning of the 20th century,
compared to an estimated
global average of 1.8 °F (1 °C) over the same time.
That's because
comparing the
average global temperature created by climate models and the
global average temperature from observationally - based datasets — the heart of the Michaels and Knappenberger exercise — is to
compare
Global average temperature anomaly from 1880 to 2012,
compared to the 1951 - 1980 long term
average.
Global average temperature anomaly from 1880 to 2012,
compared to the 1951 — 1980 long - term
average.
In the latter half of the decade, La Niña conditions persisted in the eastern and central tropical Pacific, keeping
global surface
temperatures about 0.1 degree C colder than
average — a small effect
compared with long - term
global warming but a substantial one over a decade.
Projections for the likely increase in
average global temperature this century range from about 2 °F to around 11 °F
compared to
temperatures in the late 1900s.
The scientists» main approach was simple: to look at solar output and cosmic ray intensity over the last 30 - 40 years, and
compare those trends with the graph for
global average surface
temperature.
Based on current knowledge, however, it appears that achieving a high probability of limiting
global average temperature rise to 2C will require that the increase in greenhouse - gas concentrations as well as all the other warming and cooling influences on
global climate in the year 2100, as
compared with 1750, should add up to a net warming no greater than what would be associated with a CO2 concentration of about 400 parts per million (ppm).
The research, led by Australian researchers from the CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology, predicts that Australia's national
average temperature will increase by 2.8 - 5.1 °C by 2090 in a high emissions scenario,
compared to 0.6 - 1.7 °C under a low
global emissions scenario.
Ken: The 33 C figure is derived from looking at the
global energy balance, i.e.,
comparing the actual
average surface
temperature to the
average surface
temperature that one would of necessity have to have if the Earth were otherwise the same (in particular, same albedo) but there was no greenhouse effect.
Figure 16.2: Projected number of days per year with a maximum
temperature greater than 90 °F
averaged between 2041 and 2070,
compared to 1971 - 2000, assuming continued increases in
global emissions (A2) and substantial reductions in future emissions (B1).
Figure 3:
Global mean sea level variations (light line) computed from the TOPEX / POSEIDON satellite altimeter data compared with the global averaged sea surface temperature variations (dark line) for 1993 to
Global mean sea level variations (light line) computed from the TOPEX / POSEIDON satellite altimeter data
compared with the
global averaged sea surface temperature variations (dark line) for 1993 to
global averaged sea surface
temperature variations (dark line) for 1993 to 1998.
Considering how deep the solar minimum was in 2008 - 2009, and how low total solar irradiance went
compared to where it was in 1998, given that the
average global temperature changes from peak to trough in a normal solar cycle from the changes in TSI can be of the order as high as.2 degrees centigrade, and also given that we were nearer the peak of the solar cycle in 1998 than we were in the 2009 - 2010 El Nino, I should think that it is more than reasonable to suspect that the difference in impact of the TSI on
global between 1998's and 2009 - 2010 is easily on the order of.1 C, or roughly ten times your.01 C figure.
«Climate science» as it is used by warmists implies adherence to a set of beliefs: (1) Increasing greenhouse gas concentrations will warm the Earth's surface and atmosphere; (2) Human production of CO2 is producing significant increases in CO2 concentration; (3) The rate of rise of
temperature in the 20th and 21st centuries is unprecedented
compared to the rates of change of
temperature in the previous two millennia and this can only be due to rising greenhouse gas concentrations; (4) The climate of the 19th century was ideal and may be taken as a standard to
compare against any current climate; (5)
global climate models, while still not perfect, are good enough to indicate that continued use of fossil fuels at projected rates in the 21st century will cause the CO2 concentration to rise to a high level by 2100 (possibly 700 to 900 ppm); (6) The
global average temperature under this condition will rise more than 3 °C from the late 19th century ideal; (7) The negative impact on humanity of such a rise will be enormous; (8) The only alternative to such a disaster is to immediately and sharply reduce CO2 emissions (reducing emissions in 2050 by 80 %
compared to today's rate) and continue further reductions after 2050; (9) Even with such draconian CO2 reductions, the CO2 concentration is likely to reach at least 450 to 500 ppm by 2100 resulting in significant damage to humanity; (10) Such reductions in CO2 emissions are technically feasible and economically affordable while providing adequate energy to a growing world population that is increasingly industrializing.
The percentage «remaining» in the atmosphere seems to correlate well with the annual change in
global average temperature compared to the previous year, with years of relative warming showing higher % - age of the emitted CO2 «remaining» in the atmosphere.
NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York, which monitors
global surface
temperatures on an ongoing basis, released an updated analysis that shows
temperatures around the globe in 2011
compared to the
average global temperature from the mid-20th century.
The study was carried out as part of the HELIX project, which involves more than 50 scientists from 16 institutions in 13 countries who have spent the past four years examining the potential impacts of
global temperatures rising an
average of 1.5 °C, 2 °C, 4 °C, and 6 °C
compared to pre-industrial levels.
How much warmer the globe has become
compared to 1998 can only really be commented on after an El Nino influence on the
global average surface
temperatures similar to the 1997 - 1998 El Nino occurs, and other transient or cyclical influences on the «annual
average» are considered.
If we continue to emit ever - greater quantities of CO2 and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, then
average global temperatures will rise by 2 °C over the next three decades
compared to pre-industrial times.
The reality will be rather different If we continue to emit ever - greater quantities of CO2 and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, then
average global temperatures will rise by 2 °C over the next three decades
compared to pre-industrial times.
23 Thousands of years ago
Temperature change (° c) Carbon dioxide (ppmv) Temperature Change through time Compares to the present temperature Current Level Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration and Temperature change Current Level 2100 CO2 Concentration in the atmosphere (Antarctic Ice Core) If nothing is done to slow greenhouse gas emissions... CO 2 concentrations will likely be more than 700 ppm by 2100 Global average temperatures projected to rise at 2.5 - 10.4 degrees If nothing is done to slow greenhouse gas emissions... CO 2 concentrations will likely be more than 700 ppm by 2100 Global average temperatures projected to rise at 2.5 - 1
Temperature change (° c) Carbon dioxide (ppmv)
Temperature Change through time Compares to the present temperature Current Level Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration and Temperature change Current Level 2100 CO2 Concentration in the atmosphere (Antarctic Ice Core) If nothing is done to slow greenhouse gas emissions... CO 2 concentrations will likely be more than 700 ppm by 2100 Global average temperatures projected to rise at 2.5 - 10.4 degrees If nothing is done to slow greenhouse gas emissions... CO 2 concentrations will likely be more than 700 ppm by 2100 Global average temperatures projected to rise at 2.5 - 1
Temperature Change through time
Compares to the present
temperature Current Level Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration and Temperature change Current Level 2100 CO2 Concentration in the atmosphere (Antarctic Ice Core) If nothing is done to slow greenhouse gas emissions... CO 2 concentrations will likely be more than 700 ppm by 2100 Global average temperatures projected to rise at 2.5 - 10.4 degrees If nothing is done to slow greenhouse gas emissions... CO 2 concentrations will likely be more than 700 ppm by 2100 Global average temperatures projected to rise at 2.5 - 1
temperature Current Level Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration and
Temperature change Current Level 2100 CO2 Concentration in the atmosphere (Antarctic Ice Core) If nothing is done to slow greenhouse gas emissions... CO 2 concentrations will likely be more than 700 ppm by 2100 Global average temperatures projected to rise at 2.5 - 10.4 degrees If nothing is done to slow greenhouse gas emissions... CO 2 concentrations will likely be more than 700 ppm by 2100 Global average temperatures projected to rise at 2.5 - 1
Temperature change Current Level 2100 CO2 Concentration in the atmosphere (Antarctic Ice Core) If nothing is done to slow greenhouse gas emissions... CO 2 concentrations will likely be more than 700 ppm by 2100
Global average temperatures projected to rise at 2.5 - 10.4 degrees If nothing is done to slow greenhouse gas emissions... CO 2 concentrations will likely be more than 700 ppm by 2100
Global average temperatures projected to rise at 2.5 - 10.4 degrees
All efforts should be undertaken to keep warming of
global average temperature below 1.5 °C (
compared to 1850).
George Turner (00:53:27): So if you're just looking at trends and discarding stations, how do you calculate an
average global temperature, or
compare one year to another, based on trends?
So if you're just looking at trends and discarding stations, how do you calculate an
average global temperature, or
compare one year to another, based on trends?