The reason that it may appear, at times, to have slowed (or even reversed) it's progress is that an increase in
average global temperatures over time isn't the only impact of global warming, or other associated climate change phenomena.
Although climate models have been predicting increasing
average global temperatures over the next century or so, the past decade has not shown as much warming as most scientists had expected.
> in
average global temperatures over the longer term (30 + years).
Current theory says there will steady increase in
average global temperatures over the longer term (30 + years).
The effect of the 2007 cooling on
the average global temperature over time was to negate the hardly unusual increase of a little more than one degree centigrade since about the 1890's.
You've likely seen the graph of the Earth's
average global temperature over the past 2000 years... it's mostly a straight line until you get to the industrial revolution and then it shoots up.
Below is the graphic for the model forecasts for
the average global temperature over the next 100 years.
There are more degrees of freedom in publication bias alone than the 30 - year
averaged global temperature over the instrumental record.
This is currently done, as Fred says, by computing anomalies:
the average global temperature over some period is chosen to be zero and every other temperature is referred to that.
7) The 0.7 C increase in
the average global temperature over the last hundred years is entirely consistent with well - established, long - term, natural climate trends.
The fact is that there has been no increase in
average global temperature over the last 10 years (despite continously increasing CO2 levels).
And it shows no increase in
average global temperature over the last 10 years.)
Not exact matches
In December 2015, the world agreed to the Paris Accord; to slash greenhouse gas emissions to hold
global average temperature increase to 1.5 degrees C (
over what it was before the Industrial Revolution), and, if we miss that target, to as far below 2 degrees as possible.
During the Eocene, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was more than 560 parts per million, at least twice preindustrial levels, and the epoch kicked off with a
global average temperature more than 8 degrees Celsius — about 14 degrees Fahrenheit — warmer than today, gradually cooling
over the next 22 million years.
To be more specific, the models project that
over the next 20 years, for a range of plausible emissions, the
global temperature will increase at an
average rate of about 0.2 degree C per decade, close to the observed rate
over the past 30 years.
Meanwhile,
average air
temperatures in the region rose 1.5 °C
over the past 5 decades, nearly twice the
global average.
The strength and path of the North Atlantic jet stream and the Greenland blocking phenomena appear to be influenced by increasing
temperatures in the Arctic which have
averaged at least twice the
global warming rate
over the past two decades, suggesting that those marked changes may be a key factor affecting extreme weather conditions
over the UK, although an Arctic connection may not occur each year.
Land and Ocean Combined: The combined
average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for August 2014 was the record highest for the month, at 61.45 °F (16.35 °C), or 1.35 °F (0.75 °C) above the 20th century
average of 60.1 °F (15.6 °C).
The
global average temperature over land and ocean surfaces for January to October 2014 was the highest on record, according to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
They found that the
global temperature averaged over 150 years would drop by 0.1 °C.
Temperatures at the Antarctic Peninsula have increased by 2.5 degrees Celsius
over the last 50 years, warming that is much faster than the concurrent
average global temperature increase.
Warmer than
average temperatures were evident
over most of the
global land surface, except for parts of western Europe, northern Siberia, parts of eastern Asia and much of central Australia stretching north.
In the latter half of the decade, La Niña conditions persisted in the eastern and central tropical Pacific, keeping
global surface
temperatures about 0.1 degree C colder than
average — a small effect compared with long - term
global warming but a substantial one
over a decade.
They have concluded that the
global average temperature over the past 1,000 years has been relatively stable until the 20th century.
Over the 20th century, the
average global temperature rose by 0.8 °C.
Over the last 25 years, the
average global temperature has risen by 0.6 °C.
The findings show a slight but notable increase in that
average temperature, putting a dent in the idea that
global warming has slowed
over the past 15 years, a trend highlighted in the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report.
Warmer than
average temperatures were evident
over most of the
global land surfaces, except for parts of the United States and western Europe, northern Siberia, parts of eastern Asia and much of central Australia stretching north.
Global warming, the phenomenon of increasing
average air
temperatures near the surface of Earth
over...
Expressed as a
global average, surface
temperatures have increased by about 0.74 °C
over the past hundred years (between 1906 and 2005; see Figure 1).
Global mean
temperatures averaged over land and ocean surfaces, from three different estimates, each of which has been independently adjusted for various homogeneity issues, are consistent within uncertainty estimates
over the period 1901 to 2005 and show similar rates of increase in recent decades.
Mr. Cuccinelli is well known for his harassment of Michael Mann, a climate scientist vilified by industry apologists for creating the «Hockey Stick» graph illustrating the increase of
average global temperature measurements
over the last millennium.
For more than a decade, IPCC scientists have warned that many people will suffer greatly if Earth's
average global temperature increases by more than 2 ° Celsius (3.6 ° Fahrenheit)
over what was typical before the Industrial Revolution.
Third, using a «semi-empirical» statistical model calibrated to the relationship between
temperature and
global sea - level change
over the last 2000 years, we find that, in alternative histories in which the 20th century did not exceed the
average temperature over 500-1800 CE,
global sea - level rise in the 20th century would (with > 95 % probability) have been less than 51 % of its observed value.
Temperature changes relative to the corresponding
average for 1901 - 1950 (°C) from decade to decade from 1906 to 2005
over the Earth's continents, as well as the entire globe,
global land area and the
global ocean (lower graphs).
global warming The increase in Earth's surface air
temperatures, on
average, across the globe and
over decades.
The
average temperature on Earth has barely risen
over the past 16 years, indicating that
global warming is currently taking a break - though that doesn't mean it's
over yet.
Cooling sea - surface
temperatures over the tropical Pacific Ocean — part of a natural warm and cold cycle — may explain why
global average temperatures have stabilized in recent years, even as greenhouse gas emissions have been warming the planet.
For instance, the canvas buckets give a
temperature up to 1ºC cooler in some circumstances (that depend on season and location — the biggest differences come
over warm water in winter,
global average is about 0.4 ºC cooler) than the modern insulated buckets.
Fig. 4 The «Cold Sun» forecast of Vahrenholt and Lüning compared with
global surface
temperatures of the British Meteorological Service (HadCRUT data), moving
average over 23 months to end of October 2016.
However, the most remarkable thing (to me anyway) is that the
global average temperature hasn't varied much more than 1C
over its entire range.
global average sfc T anomalies [as] indicative of anomalies in outgoing energy... is not well supported
over the historical
temperature record in the model ensemble or more recent satellite observations
Global average surface
temperatures increased on
average by about 0.6 degrees Celsius
over the period 1956 - 2006.
Fig. 5 The «Cold Sun» forecast of Vahrenholt and Lüning compared with
global surface
temperatures of the British Meteorological Service (HadCRUT data), running
average over 37 months.
Jacob (and many, many others) seem to think that if model A, when run from 1900 to present, predicts the relatively flat,
global average surface
temperature record
over the past decade, is a better match to reality than model B which does not.
A Fourier analysis would show that
global temperature averages over the past 200 years would EXACTLY MATCH the sum of a finite number of sign waves far more accurately than your «sinusoidal curve superimposed on a linear trend.»
Narrowly scoped, the present situation is either strictly caused by solar variations (in which case I believe the «solar variation» crowd will inappropriately gain credibility
over the next 10 to 20 years as we work through the next below
average solar cycle or two), or strictly caused by CO2 concentrations (in which case I believe the «CO2 concentrations» crowd will inappropriately lose credibility as the non-linear relationship (sensitivity is based on doublings, not linear increases) between increased CO2 concentrations, and forecasts for below
average solar cycles reduces the longer term upward trend in
global temperatures).
Item 8 could be confusing in having so many messages: «It is extremely likely that more than half of the observed increase in
global average surface
temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas... The best estimate of the human - induced contribution to warming is similar to the observed warming
over this period....
The issue we need to debate is not whether the
global average temperature changes by 0.1 C or 0.2 C
over the next decade (or whatever).
With the anthropogenic perturbation likely to be around 2C and maybe more in the next 100 years (that's a
global average, it will be much more
over northern hemisphere land where we actually live), there are simply no comparable sources of natural variability, and the historical record shows that such
temperatures have not been approached in the last 2000 years.