In terms of valuation, averaging the two extremes seems fair, with the resulting near - 16 %
average margin deserving a somewhat generous 1.67 Price / Sales multiple *.
Not exact matches
But presuming software is the ultimate driver of the business, EBITDA will become increasingly relevant: A decent compromise for now is to use an adjusted
margin,
averaging the latest 19.9 % EBITDA
margin & Op FCF
margin of 7.2 % (noting a prior year
margin of just 2.6 %)-- a 13.6 % adjusted
margin deserves a 1.33 Price / Sales ratio.
Let's split the difference, and base our valuation on an
average / assumed operating
margin of 19.8 % — which
deserves at least a 1.75 Price / Sales multiple, in my opinion.
Anyway, FY - 2015 results confirm a 1.9 % adjusted EBITA
margin — but if we allow for an
average 19 % minority interest in profits, this is equivalent to an underlying 1.5 %
margin, which
deserves a 0.15 P / S multiple.
Again, I'll split the difference (vs. a 30 %
margin) & base my valuation on an
average / assumed operating
margin of 21.6 % — which I think now
deserves a 2.0 P / S multiple.
A fairer valuation would
average the two — implying an 11.3 %
margin, which
deserves a 1.125 Price / Sales ratio (noting the company's superior cash generation).
Investors focus more on recent results, so an
average of the recent & long - term Op FCF
margins seems appropriate — the resulting 13.0 %
margin deserves a 1.2 Price / Sales multiple.
All in all, I'd peg the
average manager on a 25 %
margin, which normally
deserves a 2.5 - 3.0 Price / Sales multiple.
Let's be kind & presume an
average margin of 7.2 % is possible, now the debt restructuring's given the company some breathing room — this
deserves the same 0.6 P / S multiple as last year.
I think it's fair to presume the most recent figures are distorted, so let's presume an
average operating
margin of 5.2 % — this
deserves a 0.45 P / S multiple.
[Again: * Per my rule of thumb, based on long - term observation of market / M & A multiples, a 10 - 12.5 % operating
margin deserves a 1.0 P / S multiple (on
average).
On
average, we're looking at an underlying 20.4 %
margin, which
deserves a 2.0 P / S multiple.
Noting that & operating on the assumption
margins will eventually converge, a 7.6 %
average of current / long - term
margins might
deserve a 0.7 Price / Sales multiple at this point.
[NB: Noting market valuations (and M&A multiples) over the years, my rule of thumb is a 10 - 12.5 % operating
margin deserves a 1.0 P / S, on
average.