But I have to ask, what's so bloody alarming about entirely
average market P / E ratios... when interest rates are still anything but average?!
But if you are going to try to strategically manage your equity exposure, then watching how investors treat cash at any point in time might be a useful tactic (alongside monitoring dividend yields and
the average market P / E).
Not exact matches
It gives the most accurate picture of the
market P / E by calculating a ten - year
average of inflation - adjusted earnings as the «E,» a formula that eliminates the bigs swings that make
P / Es look overly extended when profits temporarily collapse, and more attractive than warranted when earnings spike, the scenario today.
Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist with S&
P Capital IQ and noted stock
market historian, says that since 1948 the S&
P 500's trailing
P / E has been, on
average, 20 times.
Not least because the Shiller
p / e is, at 25, well above the historical
average and other
market indicators (like the Q ratio) are pointing the same way.
The stock
market has reflected such a slowing with a 10 % drop in 2013 so far based on the China ETF, FXI which holds the largest Chinese stocks that have a blended
P / E
average of around 9.
P / E ratios are not good at identifying
market tops of bottoms, however, they are associated with below -
average long - term returns.
Indeed, even Robert Shiller's cyclically - adjusted
P / E (CAPE) is much better correlated with actual subsequent
market returns, across a century of
market cycles, when we account for the profit margin embedded in the 10 - year
average of earnings.
In VFC's case, that basic estimate is based on reference point price - to - earnings ratio (
P / E) of 15, which is the long - term
average P / E of the stock
market as a whole.
Even with some recent pullbacks, the
P / E ratio of big U.S. companies, and the valuation of the
market itself, are far above the international
average.
VFC's 10 - year
average P / E ratio has been 16.0 instead of 15, meaning that the
market has tended to more highly value VF than companies as a whole.
That's obviously high relative to the broader
market (and pretty high in absolute terms), although it's well below the stock's five - year
average P / E ratio of 65.6.
That compares very favorably to both the broader
market and the stock's own five - year
average P / E ratio of 27.0, but the latter metric shouldn't really be considered due to numerous adjustments.
In reality, the Rule of 20 does not pretend that the
average P / E is 20, rather that «fair
P / E» is 20 and that readings below 20 indicate an undervalued
market and vice versa.
The stock is available for a
P / E ratio of 14.66 here, which compares favorably to the stock's own five - year
average P / E ratio of 17.1 (not to mention the broader
market).
Grainger's 10 - year
average P / E ratio has been 19.0 (see the dark blue box in the right panel), meaning that the
market has tended to value it about 27 % higher than the historic valuation of all the companies at 15.0.
The stocks in the MSCI Emerging
Markets Index on
average are trading at 10.2 times next year's earnings, compared with a
P / E of 15.2 for the S&
P 500, FactSet noted.
Through much of my career, these stocks sold below the
market P / E ratio because their growth rates were below
average.
The last time bearish sentiment was below 20 %, at a 4 - year
market high and a Shiller
P / E above 18 (S&
P 500 divided by the 10 - year
average of inflation - adjusted earnings — the present multiple is 23) was for two weeks in May 2007 with the S&
P 500 about 1525.
The Dow's
P / E has
averaged 16 during the past three years, in the middle of the range during secular bull
markets.
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The
average forward price - to - earnings (
P / E) ratio of emerging
market equities is currently in the range of 12 to 13, compared with 14 to 15 for global equities.
I also hear a lot that the
average p / e ratio of the
market helps to define whether the
market is overvalue or not.
As of this writing, Newell Rubbermaid has a
market cap of 20 billion, a forward
P / E ratio of 15 and a dividend yield of 1.71 %, which is just below its five - year
average.
Bargain Issues — here Graham focuses on «
average past earning power» and compares it with current
market value and recommends stocks which have high earnings yield (i.e. low
P / E) ratios based on
average plus a strong balance sheet.
In contrast, I've often quoted the Shiller
P / E (which essentially uses a 10 - year
average of inflation - adjusted earnings) as a simple but historically informative alternative, but I should emphasize that we strongly prefer our standard methodologies based on earnings, forward earnings, dividends and other fundamentals, all which have a fairly tight relationship with subsequent 7 - 10 year total returns (see Lessons from a Lost Decade, The Likely Range of
Market Returns in the Coming Decade, Valuing the S&
P 500 Using Forward Operating Earnings, and No Margin of Safety, No Room for Error).
Historically, the combination of an inverted yield curve and a
P / E ratio over 15 has been associated with negative
market returns, on
average.
From the above, we see that the
market traded at an
average P / E of 23.3 x when interest rates were between 4 % and 6 %.
I am always baffled at comments like, «The
market has
averaged a
P / E ratio of 14x for the last 100 years so the stock
market is 40 % overvalued at 20x...».
At secular bear
market lows, the Shiller
P / E (S&
P 500 divided by the 10 - year
average of inflation - adjusted earnings) has typically been about 7, as we saw in 1942 - 1950 and in 1982.
You'll also see the
market cap, Earnings Per Share (from the most recent earnings call), the
P / E ratio (price to earnings ratio, and the
average P / E (I also assume this is from the prior year).
Vertical factor: My Cyclically Adjusted
P / E (Five year trailing triangular
average earnings divided by price) Hypothesis: The higher the CAPE Tri-5 earnings yield, the faster the
market will rise.
On
average, about 25 % of the
market was made up of stocks with
P / Es of less than 15 over the last 20 years and 10 % was made up of stocks with ratios under 10.
On long - term measures of value (for example, Graham's 10 - year trailing
P / E ratio and corporate profits as a proportion of GDP)
market prices are well below average and approaching all time lows (See Future Blind «s post Market Valuation Charts prepared in October last year when the S&P 500 was around
market prices are well below
average and approaching all time lows (See Future Blind «s post
Market Valuation Charts prepared in October last year when the S&P 500 was around
Market Valuation Charts prepared in October last year when the S&
P 500 was around 1160).
But given today's low interest rates (recently about 2.3 % for 10 - year Treasuries) and relatively rich stock valuations (Yale finance professor Robert Shiller's cyclically adjusted
P / E ratio for the stock
market recently stood at 29.2 vs. an
average of 16.7 since 1900), it would seem to strain credulity to expect anything close to the annualized returns of close to the annualized return of 10 % for stocks and 5 % for bonds over the past 90 years or so, let alone the dizzying gains the
market has generated from its post-financial crisis lows.
For its basic estimate, FASTGraphs compares the stock's actual price - to - earnings (
P / E) ratio to the historical
average P / E ratio of the whole stock
market, which is 15.
Between 1995 and the financial crisis, the
average price - to - earnings (
P / E) ratio of the S&
P 500 utilities sector was roughly 25 percent below the
P / E of the broader
market, as Bloomberg data indicates.
For example, a portfolio of large companies bought at the end of each year where their median
P / E was below that of the
market would have earned
average annual returns 10.2 percent above S&
P 500 returns over the following five - year period (helped by the late 90's run - up in large companies).
Value stocks come in at the low end of the current
market average P / E and
P / BV.
That's a below -
market P / E ratio on a company that is growing at an above -
average rate.
There is overwhelming evidence to show that low
P / E (
P / B) stocks, on
average, outperform the
market and high
P / E (
P / B) stocks.
DIV STRK is consecutive years of dividend increases; DIV YLD is yield using the most recently announced dividend; 5 YR YLD is
average dividend yield over the past 5 years; REC DG is most recent year - over-year dividend growth; 5 YR DG is
average annual dividend growth over the past 5 years; PRICE was at
market close Friday, March 2; FAIR VAL is Morningstar's «Fair Value Estimate»; FWD
P / E is price / earnings ratio based on projected 2018 earnings; 5 YR
P / E is
average P / E ratio over the past 5 years; MOAT is Morningstar's rating of competitive economic advantage; SFT is Value Line's «Safety» score; CRD is Standard & Poor's credit rating; MKT CAP is
market cap in billions of dollars.
and 2) I also worry that the asset allocations associated with a respective 10 year
P / E
average ratio might introduce too much «
market timing» element in to your investing approach.
That is the long - term
average P / E of the stock
market as a whole.
That's obviously high relative to the broader
market (and pretty high in absolute terms), although it's well below the stock's five - year
average P / E ratio of 65.6.
Cardinal's 10 - year
average P / E ratio has been 16 instead of 15, meaning that the
market has tended to value CAH a little higher than its historic valuation of all the companies.
This is a
P / E ratio that is almost half the broader
market, on a business that's growing much faster than the
average business in the S&
P 500.
The stock is available for a
P / E ratio of 14.66 here, which compares favorably to the stock's own five - year
average P / E ratio of 17.1 (not to mention the broader
market).
They replaced their quotes with forward
P / E's and claimed «the
markets have lots of upside because the index PE is only 12 and historically PE = 15 was the
average.»
Stocks were deemed expensive when
P / E ratios were above their 15 - year moving
average; cheap stock
markets stood below this
average.