If this year's September mean does drop below 5 million km2 it would end up well below the previous two rebound years, but still in 4th - 6th place, which would make
it an average melting season.
And
an average melting season nowadays is well below the long - term average, of course.
Not exact matches
Satellite data show that, between 1979 and 2013, the summer ice - free
season expanded by an
average of 5 to 10 weeks in 12 Arctic regions, with sea ice forming later in the fall and
melting earlier in the spring.
2016 experienced the earliest
melt, the latest onset of snow in autumn, and the longest snow - free
season in 115 years of record - keeping — about 45 percent longer than the
average over the previous four decades.
But over the past decades, the
melt season has grown longer and the
average extent of Arctic sea ice has diminished, changing the game for many Arctic marine mammals — namely beluga, narwhal and bowhead whales; ringed, bearded, spotted, ribbon, harp and hooded seals; walruses; and polar bears.
Howell points out that concentration of MYI in the region is well below the historical
average and that it is likely the seasonal first - year ice will clear during the
melt season.
Using this approach and taking into consideration that the survivability of ice during the summer
melt season has changed in recent years, gives us an
average estimate of 4.59 106km2, using ice survival rates from the last 5 summers.
Well, it nearly * tripled * from mid February to late March, yet never reached above about 65 % of
average at any point this
season (and recent record warmth has already triggered
melting; the snowpack is already back down to 55 % of
average for the date).
DMI says, The surface mass balance is calculated over a year from September 1st to August 31st (the end of the
melt season) For the 2016 - 17 SMB year, which ended yesterday, the ice sheet had gained 544bn tonnes of ice, compared to an
average for 1981 - 2010 of 368bn tonnes.
The warm year saw the Greenland ice sheet experience above
average melting for 90 % of the «
melt season», the report says.
Method: Based on extrapolation of end of July extent based on 1979 — 2007
average decline rates through the rest of the
melt season.
Figure 2: DMI summer
melt season temperatures and annual DMI temperature anomaly as well as five year running
averages
Because of this slow - down, NSIDC changed its forecast methodology to use the
average decline rates through the end of the
melt season.
According to the press release: «This trio of images shows changes between 1979 and 2007 in the
average date of
melt onset in the spring (left), the first autumn freeze (center), and the total
average increase in the length of the Arctic sea ice
melt season.
The
melting season — i.e. the length of time in which continuous
melting occurs — has increased on
average by 6.4 days for every decade between 1979 and 2007.
The 2012
melt season started off hopefully, with April sea ice extent near the 1979 - 2000
average.
Lower the temps and you'll probably get less snow on
average, which will then
melt out faster when the
season turns and temps rise again.
In 2005 the Greenland ice sheet lost around 53 cubic miles (220 cubic kilometers) of mass — more than two times the amount it lost in 1996 (22 cubic miles, or 90 cubic kilometers).5 The
melt area set a new record in 2007: it was about 60 percent larger than the previous record in 1998, and extended farther inland.7, 8 By 2007 the
melt season at elevations above 6,500 feet (2,000 meters) was a month longer than the
average from 1988 to 2006.9
Of the 15 million square kilometers (5.8 million square miles) of sea ice that exist during winter, on
average, 7 million square kilometers (2.7 million square miles) remain at the end of the summer
melt season.
At the end of the
melt season, September 2007 sea ice was 39 percent below the long - term
average from 1979 to 2000 (see Figure 2).
The city reports an
average snowfall of 55 inches per
season, and this can lead to serious flooding issues during the spring
melt - off.