The 2011 low is 2.38 million square kilometers (919,000 square miles) below
the average minimum extent measured between 1979 and 2000.
Satellite data reveal how the new record low Arctic sea ice extent, from Sept. 16, 2012, compares to
the average minimum extent over the past 30 years (in yellow).
Extent of Arctic sea ice in September 2016 versus the 1981 - 2010
average minimum extent (gold line).
This image shows a visualization of Arctic sea ice cover on Sept. 12, 2013, with a yellow line showing the 30 - year
average minimum extent.
Not exact matches
Satellites show the
extent of Arctic sea ice on Sept. 16, 2012 as compared to the
average minimum from the past 30 years (yellow line).
Though slightly larger than last year, the
minimum sea ice
extent 2017 is
average for the past ten years and far below the numbers from 1979 to 2006.
On the regional scale, the CEI was above
average in the West and Northwest due to extremes in warm maximum and
minimum temperatures and the spatial
extent of drought.
Regionally, CEI was much above
average in the West and Northwest, due to elevated components of warm maximum and
minimum temperatures, spatial
extent of drought and days with precipitation.
After the 2016 September
minimum, the Arctic ice growth was very sluggish, leading to well - below
average extent through the 2016/2017 ice - growth season.
If you plot the
average Arctic Sea Ice
extent for 20 years, the you should also plot the monthly maximum and
minimum values on the same figure so that we can get some perspective on where the 2007 and 2008 data falls in the context of annual variability, or examine for trends.
The graph below (high - resolution copy) shows the range of the forecasts for early September, the point when the sea ice typically reaches its
minimum extent, compared to recent years and the
average over the period of precise satellite measurement.
Hardly, the March
extent (
minimum) is changing at 4.2 ± 4.6 %, i.e. fluctuating without much trend, two years ago it was 20 % below
average.
Why, because the current sea ice
extent is already lower than the
average minimum for the decade of the 90s?
(Right)
Extents and thicknesses of the Greenland Ice Sheet and western Canadian and Iceland glaciers at their
minimum extent during the last interglacial, shown as a multi-model
average from three ice models.
NASA satellite data reveals how this year's
minimum sea ice
extent, reached on Sept. 9 as depicted here, declined to a level far smaller than the 30 - year
average (in yellow) and opened up Northwest Passage shipping lanes (in red).
In other words, Arctic sea ice
extent has been lower than it was in 1938 - 43 during the entire satellite record, and the current
average summer
extent is approximately 4.3 million square kilometers lower than the 1940
minimum.
The two lowest September ice
extents (2007 and 2012) were also both later than
average; this year's
minimum is the fourth lowest (see chart below).
Stroeve says this year's
minimum extent was largely due to the exceptionally warm winter in the Arctic, part of a trend that's resulted in 14 consecutive months of record - setting
average high temperatures worldwide.
The
minimum ice
extent in September 2009 was greater than the past two Septembers, but again fell below the long - term
average.
The so - called
minimum sea - ice
extent in «07 was at that time the lowest since satellite monitoring began in 1979, covering an
average of 1.65 million square miles.
If we
average the
minimum ice
extent for that decade it is flat.
Given the
minimum ice
extent is about 4 million km2 and 4000 km3 (an
average of 1 meter thickness) the SMOS data is of limited value.
Using
average rates of decline based on data from 1979 - 2000 gives a
minimum extent to be significantly lower than the 5.5 million square kilometers earlier forecasted by Stroeve et al..
After above -
average air temperatures and record ice loss in May 2010, the ice
extent at the beginning of June fell below the previous record
minimum for the same day in 2006.
However, the pace of decline returned to near -
average rates by July, and the end - of - summer
minimum sea ice
extent, recorded on September 10, eventually tied for second lowest with 2007 (2012 remains the lowest in the satellite time series by more than 600,000 square kilometers or 232,000 square miles).
Specifically, the estimate is calculated by multiplying the
average (for the period 1985 - 2007) amount of ice that does not survive the summer (between the March maximum and the September
minimum) by this year's March
extent.
The mean
minimum ice
extent in September,
averaged across all ensemble members and corrected for forward model bias, is our projected ice
extent.
«Arctic
minimum sea ice
extent at the end of summer was tied with 2007 for the second - lowest amount during the satellite record starting in 1979, at 33 percent below the long - term
average.»
This is exemplified by record
minimum extent averaged from March through June 2016.
With
averages over the full array
extent based on a
minimum of 40 % valid data points, SAT and SST data are available for 1993 - 2015.
For example, additional evidence of a warming trend can be found in the dramatic decrease in the
extent of Arctic sea ice at its summer
minimum (which occurs in September), decrease in spring snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere, increases in the global
average upper ocean (upper 700 m or 2300 feet) heat content (shown relative to the 1955 — 2006
average), and in sea - level rise.
In the 1980's and 199o's, sea ice
minimum extent (in September)
averaged about 6.5 - 7.5 M sq km.
In April 2012, NSIDC updated its method of calculating daily values for the Arctic sea ice
extent minimum from a 5 - day centered
average to a 5 - day trailing
average.
The 2012
minimum sea ice
extent was 49 % below the 1979 to 2000
average and 18 % below the previous record from 2007.