In fact, our numbers confirm Cooley's assessment, as
the average number of bets increases by just under 25 % between January and February.
As you can see,
the average number of bets placed is fairly low in November, December, and January when bettors are preoccupied with the ongoing football season.
The table below displays
the average number of bets placed on each college basketball game by month.
Average number of bets for NFL games (in thousands) Early Sunday: 34.1 Late Sunday: 42.4 Thursdays: 54.1 Mondays: 70.7 Sunday Night: 73.7 — SportsInsights.com (@SportsInsights) October 13, 2014
I like the concept of this strategy — but
the average number of bets filter makes it very impractical to use.
Even when we filter the results to focus on highly bet games (getting 1.5 times
the average number of bets for the day) the results still do not improve; the 30 % level produces a 19 - 21 ATS record, and the 50 % level produces a 30 - 47 ATS record.
In fact, my research found that
the average number of bets placed on an NBA Finals matchup is roughly twice the average playoff game and five times greater than the average regular season game — and that may be a conservative figure.
Using this data, we can see how betting against the public has done in games with at least
the average number of bets that day.
That edge continues to grow at every data point when we look at games with three and four times the daily
average number of bets.
Not exact matches
The public - friendly Patriots have received on
average 67.6 %
of spread
bets this year — for what it's worth that
number jumps to 71.2 % with Tom Brady under center — which is practically identical to the percent
of spread tickets they're getting in Super Bowl 51.
When the
number of bets placed is at least 2.5 - times the daily
average, that record skyrockets to 100 - 76 ATS (56.8 %).
When the
number of bets placed is at least equal to the daily
average, that record improves to 852 - 839 ATS (50.4 %).
Entering Week 4, favorites receiving less than 50 %
of spread
bets had gone 19 - 13 ATS (59.4 %) including a 12 - 8 ATS record (60.0 %) in games where the
number of bets was at least the daily
average.
Sportsbook Insider members can see the
number of bets, but not how it compares to the daily
average.
«Heavily
bet games» are based on the
number of bets compared to the daily
average.
The table below displays the performance
of college basketball favorites when the
number of bets is greater than or equal to the daily
average.
As we have previously stated, the value derived from
betting against the public is directly correlated with the
number of bets placed on each game and marquee bowl games (like BCS Bowls or College Football Playoff game) receive nearly six times more
bets than the
average regular season game.
Since 2005, teams receiving less than 25 %
of spread tickets have gone 1,528 - 1,432 ATS (51.6 %) when the
number of bets on the game is at least the daily
average and 416 - 363 ATS (53.4 %) when the
number of bets is at least twice the daily
average.
Using our «
number of bets compared to daily
average (DA)» filter in
Bet Labs, we can see how this strategy work at each
of the different levels
of lopsided
betting.
The table below displays how unranked teams have fared against ranked opponents based on the
number of bets compared to the daily
average.
Many readers may be wondering how there could ever be value
betting the under when the
average runs per game have been higher than the
average total in each
of the past 12 seasons, but there's a finite
number of runs by which the game can go under, while there is no limit to how many runs can be scored in a game.
Teams receiving less than 35 %
of spread
bets have covered the spread at a 49.0 % rate overall, but that rate increases to 51.5 % when the
number of bets placed is at least equal to the daily
average.
Although none
of these
numbers were astounding, it was fascinating to know that simply
betting on every pitcher with an above
average walk rate has been a profitable strategy.
In games where the
number of bets tracked is greater than the daily
average, that record improves to 47 - 29 ATS (61.8 %).
When the
number of bets tracked is greater than the daily
average, that record improves to 32 - 10 ATS (76.2 %).
When the
number of bets tracked is greater than the daily
average, teams receiving less than 50 %
of spread dollars have gone 141 - 95 ATS (59.7 %), teams receiving less than 35 %
of spread dollars have gone 56 - 35 ATS (61.5 %) and teams receiving less than 20 %
of spread dollars have gone 13 - 7 ATS (65.0 %).
If the enormous
number of such books was removed from the calculation, I'm
betting the
average per - book sales figure would be quite a bit higher.
I
bet the
average household will use a
number of these, but to me that's a very exciting seed that we've planted.
Specifically, I'll
bet that the
average annual
number of Americans killed by these violent weather events from 2011 through 2030 will be lower than it was from 1991 through 2010.
I'll
bet $ 10,000 that the
average annual
number of Americans killed by tornadoes, floods and hurricanes will fall over the next 20 years.
I
bet the
average household will use a
number of these, but to me that's a very exciting seed that we've planted.