The Fasullo post at Climate Dialogue, on sensitivity and TCR includes a graph showing pentadal
average ocean heat content, with a reference to a and b curves.
It will be interesting to see if above
average ocean heat content that has persistent in the Chukchi Sea (north of the Bering Strait) has finally been discharged.
Instead, total annual
average ocean heat content has increased steadily during the hiatus, at quite a confronting rate given that this metric is closely tied to global sea - level rise.
The upper figure shows changes in ocean heat content since 1958, while the lower map shows ocean heat content in 2017 relative to
the average ocean heat content between 1981 and 2010, with red areas showing warmer ocean heat content than over the past few decades and blue areas showing cooler.
As seen in Figure 4 - 3, the ocean warming occurred in the later years of the record with little change in globally
averaged ocean heat content prior to 1997.
Not exact matches
The red line on this chart plots 3 - month
averages of
ocean heat content.
ocean system is faster than the global
average since the 1960s; there is a small but widespread increase in
heat content of the Arctic Oceanâ??
This increase in
ocean heat content corresponds to an
average heating rate of 0.21 ± 0.04 W m — 2 for the Earth's surface.
We assess the
heat content change from both of the long time series (0 to 700 m layer and the 1961 to 2003 period) to be 8.11 ± 0.74 × 1022 J, corresponding to an
average warming of 0.1 °C or 0.14 ± 0.04 W m — 2, and conclude that the available
heat content estimates from 1961 to 2003 show a significant increasing trend in
ocean heat content.
With the current GHG
content in the atmosphere, more solar energy arrives than leaves via radiation -LRB-.85 + / -.15 Watt / m ^ 2), which raises the
heat content of the terrestrial system, i.e., the
average temperature over the whole earth +
oceans + atmosphere.
If it would warm 5 degrees this century, which seem quite possible, that would be about 100 times faster than the
average rate during the last deglaciation, although I suppose
ocean heat content rises somewhat slower.
More than 95 % of the 5 yr running mean of the surface temperature change since 1850 can be replicated by an integration of the sunspot data (as a proxy for
ocean heat content), departing from the
average value over the period of the sunspot record (~ 40SSN), plus the superimposition of a ~ 60 yr sinusoid representing the observed oceanic oscillations.
C isothermic level in the pacific appeared to rise from an
average of 400 meters to about 100 meters recently; I find myself wondering then how is it that the
oceans heat content is dropping, the solar input appears to be consistant, that one of the GEWEX comitties appears to indicate that the atmospheric water vapor seems to be decreasing.
Given that the most of the melting that goes on is from the underneath (i.e. under the water) and
ocean heat content is at modern highs, and the
oceans have even released a bit less energy than
average over the past 15 years, it is not a coincidence that ice would de line even faster during this period.
Anthropogenic GHG warming is about the Earth's energy balance, and thus, looking at an
average global near - surface temperature, or the total
ocean heat content can tell us something useful about that energy balance.
However because we don't measure
ocean heat content below 2000m (about half of the total volume), the OHC you cite applies to the top half volume only, so the
average dT in this part of volume is just under 0.1 K (0.08) consistent with the estimates.
This increase in
ocean heat content corresponds to an
average heating rate of 0.21 ± 0.04 W m — 2 for the Earth's surface.
Despite the fact that there are differences between these three
ocean heat content estimates due to the data used, quality control applied, instrumental biases, temporal and spatial
averaging and analysis methods (Appendix 5.
The 2012 paper, World
Ocean Heat Content and Thermosteric Sea Level change (0 - 2000 m), 1955 - 2010, by Levitus et al. points to the fact that over the study's span, to a depth of 2000 meters, the
oceans have warmed by an
average of 0.09 C.
We assess the
heat content change from both of the long time series (0 to 700 m layer and the 1961 to 2003 period) to be 8.11 ± 0.74 × 1022 J, corresponding to an
average warming of 0.1 °C or 0.14 ± 0.04 W m — 2, and conclude that the available
heat content estimates from 1961 to 2003 show a significant increasing trend in
ocean heat content.
Theo Goodwin, the
ocean heat content change doesn't
average out to zero in the long term, only those internal processes you mention which shuffle energy around.
Time series of annual
average global integrals of upper
ocean heat content anomaly (1021 J, or ZJ) for (a) 0 — 100 m, (b) 0 — 300 m, (c) 0 — 700 m, and (d) 0 — 1800 m. Thin vertical lines denote when the coverage (Fig. 3) reaches 50 % for (a) 0 — 100 m, (b) 100 — 300 m, (c) 300 — 700 m, and (d) 900 — 1800 m. From Lyman & Johnson (2013)
Ocean heat content each year since 1993 compared to the 1993 - 2013
average (dashed line) from a variety of data sources.
Since ENSO is a coupled
ocean - atmosphere process, I have presented its impact on and the inter-relationships between numerous variables, including sea surface temperature, sea level,
ocean currents,
ocean heat content, depth -
averaged temperature, warm water volume, sea level pressure, cloud amount, precipitation, the strength and direction of the trade winds, etc..
In the absence of changes to other climate forcings and assuming continued rise of CO2 AGW would be falsified by falling / static
ocean heat content or falling / static global
average temperature.
«TCR and ECS are calculated by regressing ensemble -
average decadal mean forcing or forcing minus
ocean heat content change rate against ensemble -
average temperature change.»
I'm very convinced that the physical process of global warming is continuing, which appears as a statistically significant increase of the global surface and tropospheric temperature anomaly over a time scale of about 20 years and longer and also as trends in other climate variables (e.g., global
ocean heat content increase, Arctic and Antarctic ice decrease, mountain glacier decrease on
average and others), and I don't see any scientific evidence according to which this trend has been broken, recently.
As we have emphasized here (as have others, such as Hansen, Levitus, Barnett, Willis) a more meaningful metric than global
average temperature to assess global warming is
ocean heat content.»
The change of the
heat content of the globe (mainly in the
oceans) is dH / dt = S (1 - a)-- E, where S is the solar radiation, a the albedo, E the global infrared emission; such a relation is likely and there are historical series for H (figure 13 - A), E (figure 14 - A) for S and a; whether global
averaging makes sense is debatable.
Yet since about 2000 (or 2001) the
average surface temperature has been essentially flat, and since 2003 the
ocean heat content (according to Argo) has been flat to slightly falling....
For example, additional evidence of a warming trend can be found in the dramatic decrease in the extent of Arctic sea ice at its summer minimum (which occurs in September), decrease in spring snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere, increases in the global
average upper
ocean (upper 700 m or 2300 feet)
heat content (shown relative to the 1955 — 2006
average), and in sea - level rise.
«The recent dramatic cooling of the
average heat content of the upper
oceans, and thus a significant negative radiative imbalance of the climate system for at least a two year period, that was mentioned in the Climate Science weblog posting of July 27, 2006, should be a wake - up call to the climate community that the focus on predictive modeling as the framework to communicate to policymakers on climate policy has serious issues as to its ability to accurately predict the behavior of the climate system.
Record droughts in many areas of the world, the loss of arctic sea ice — what you see is an increasing trend that is superimposed on annual variablity (no bets on what happens next year, but the five - to - ten year
average in global temperatures, sea surface temperatures,
ocean heat content — those will increase — and ice sheet volumes, tropical glacier volumes, sea ice extent will decrease.
# # # The National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) recently updated their
ocean heat content and vertically
averaged temperature data for the
oceans to depths of 2000 meters.