Sentences with phrase «average predictions in»

Not exact matches

Predictions became much more accurate in a time span that almost directly followed the free - agent era: 1998 to 2015, during which time the average yearly correlation jumped, even including the execrable scores from 2015.

Unless you actually have information that assists in making accurate predictions, and enough history to rely on that information, it's preferable to focus on the average return per unit of risk, even though you may not be correct in every instance.

* SPY is below its 200 - day moving average, so it is fair to characterize this advance as a «rally in a bear market» (no prediction here, just noting that bear market rallies have a way of reversing quickly and painfully);

That's the prediction by leading agent RE / MAX in the, which believes prices will rise just 2 % on average across the nation in 2017, according to the 2017 RE / MAX Housing...

The better - than - expected revenue result was driven by an average selling price for iPhones that came in ahead of predictions.

In fact, when we averaged six leading forecasts, the aggregate 2017 prediction was near 4 % for a 30 - year fixed mortgage — 4.0042 % to be exact.

In response, we gathered 2017 mortgage rate predictions from the most authoritative sources, averaging them for the most accurate forecast possible.

Pipeline operator Enbridge Inc. saw increases in the shipment of crude oil across its Mainland system, earning 61 cents per share — an average of 5 cents higher than analyst predictions.

To direct his National Economic Council, meanwhile, Trump has nominated Larry Kudlow, who also proposed a wildly optimistic take on stock prices back then, in his case a prediction that the Dow Jones Industrial Average would go to 50,000 by 2020... Kudlow, the more interesting of Trump's Dow dreamers, didn't seem to be chastened by this experience; he went on to a career as a TV business commentator, delivering an amazing series of bum steers as the years rolled by.

For much of my 25 years in financial services, I provided my fellow senior managers with a weekly market forecast, including a weekly prediction of closing Dow Jones Industrial Average prices at the end of the week.

Predictions are for a lower than average crop in Italy, with some serious quality concerns.

Vintage predictions vary in the Northern Hemisphere, with the general theme being that most suppliers expect to have an average or slightly larger than average intake.

The Root MSE tells us that the models are on average 3 to 5 percentage points out on the change in share of the council seats won, which is a big average error for a prediction model when there are thousands of seats up for election.

The PollyVote combined forecast, averaging across forecast types, appears to have a good track record for US presidential elections, and their analysis suggests that citizen forecasts and prediction markets typically outperform the polls in the US.

That's about average for off - year local elections, way short of predictions from advocates of single - member districts, who had argued that replacing multi-member districts with one - on - one contests voters would result in better - known candidates and greater voter participation.

Polling predictions were closer in the regional vote, with all three pollsters have an average error below 2 % on the 4 main parties.

ConHome readers» average prediction was 3,301, and Political Betting readers were in the same ball park.

In his new paper, Lovejoy applies the same approach to the 15 - year period after 1998, during which globally averaged temperatures remained high by historical standards, but were somewhat below most predictions generated by the complex computer models used by scientists to estimate the effects of greenhouse - gas emissions.

High confidence in the reliability of fire prediction is lacking today, even as Western drought and the effects of climate change drive up the total acres burned nationwide and also the average size of each fire, ballooning the number of on - call U.S. Forest Service firefighters and the total costs to battle the flames.

The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center provided the town with a warning 16 minutes before the tornado touched down at 3:01 p.m. (2001 GMT), which is greater than the average eight to 10 minutes of warning, said Keli Pirtle, a spokeswoman for the center in Norman, Oklahoma.

Taking nitrogen and phosphorus into account brought down the researchers» average prediction of annual global carbon storage by 25 % compared with the IPCC figures, the team reports online today in Nature Geoscience.

The average of all predictions for both abrupt changes shows good agreement with the observed climate development in the Pacific.

But some ocean patterns in the climate system can persist much longer, and understanding them can help make useful predictions for regional and global averages that don't depend so much on specific weather patterns.

Any way you look it, from the Climate Prediction Center Outlook through May, to the ongoing warm anomalies in land and sea surface temperatures, much of the United States is likely to find above average temperatures in the coming months.

Current predictions [5], [6] suggest that trends in sea ice extent will alter in the second half of this century and that the annual average sea ice extent will diminish by 33 %; most of this retreat is expected to occur in winter and spring [5], [6], with attendant risks for emperor penguins.

Consequence predictions are changed for 501 of 5019 compound variants found in the 81.7 M variants in the 1000 Genomes Project data, with an average of 139 compound variants per haplotype.

Prediction 5: In 2012, the average husband will be expected to flirt with you by text message, serenade you in live video, make wanton love to your virtual double over lunch, and still have enough energy to engage in thoughtful conversation at dinneIn 2012, the average husband will be expected to flirt with you by text message, serenade you in live video, make wanton love to your virtual double over lunch, and still have enough energy to engage in thoughtful conversation at dinnein live video, make wanton love to your virtual double over lunch, and still have enough energy to engage in thoughtful conversation at dinnein thoughtful conversation at dinner.

But in other applications, averaging can usefully aggregate data, make predictions, reveal group differences or intervention effects, and efficiently communicate evidence.

Based upon the alleged «failure» of Petitioner's students to meet computer predictions that generate a so - called student growth percentile («SGP») 5 for each of her fifteen (15) students, the algorithm somehow adjusted the SPGs and averaged the adjusted SGPs to create a so - called mean growth percentile («MGP») which Respondents» computer program in turn used to determine that she was an «ineffective educator» in terms of promoting growth.

Given this variability, we can make statements about averages, such as «on average» teachers in the top 20 % for VAM scores will likely have on average higher observed observational scores; however, there is not nearly enough precision to make any (and certainly not any good) predictions about the observational score from the VAM score for individual teachers.

What this means in practice is that when correlations are this «weak,» it is reasonable to say statements about averages, for example, that «on average» as one variable increases the mean of the other variable increases, but it would not be prudent or wise to make predictions for individuals based on these data.

In Canada, average domestic round - trip prices rose two per cent month over month to $ 457 in February after having dropped 7.3 per cent in January, according to the Consumer Airfare Index from airfare prediction app HoppeIn Canada, average domestic round - trip prices rose two per cent month over month to $ 457 in February after having dropped 7.3 per cent in January, according to the Consumer Airfare Index from airfare prediction app Hoppein February after having dropped 7.3 per cent in January, according to the Consumer Airfare Index from airfare prediction app Hoppein January, according to the Consumer Airfare Index from airfare prediction app Hopper.

Since we have been covering stock market history extensively this letter, it should be noted that based solely on historical averages (this is not a prediction), we are well overdue for a decline in the stock market of 20 % or greater.

In intermediate situations, which are of course the most common, the prediction should be regressive; that is, it should fall between the class average and the value that best represents one's impression of the case at hand.

First - time buyers have been the main drivers behind demand in the city, but average home prices still failed to reach the CMHC's predictions for 2016.

You can find all sorts of predictions of expected future returns based on various factors, calculations, and models, but unfortunately, most of them point to a rate of return for both stocks and bonds in the next few years that is below historical averages.

We show four relevant empirical facts: i) the striking ability of the logarithmic averaged earning over price ratio to predict returns of the index, with an R squared which increases with the time horizon, ii) how this evidence increases switching from returns to gross returns, iii) moving over different time horizons, the regression coefficients are constant in a statistically robust way, and iv) the poorness of the prediction when the precursor is adjusted with long term interest rate.

In making its seasonal prediction, forecasters cautioned that there are large portions of the country for which there are no clear indications whether it will be a warmer, colder, wetter, or drier than average winter, largely due to a fickle El Niño event that may have petered out too early to have much of an impact on North American winter weather.

* Most of our major cities are under increasingly severe water restrictions and the prediction is that many towns will run our of water or have to pay significant pumping and carting costs in the coming year unless we get significantly higher than average rains (e.g see here).

However their predictions are about much more than just the average near - surface air temperature, they are mainly focused on how heat mixes into the ocean and how that affects the rise in surface temperature as CO2 is doubled over 100 years.

All in all the science of hurricanes does appear to be much more fun and interesting than the average climate change issue, as there is a debate, a «fight» between different hypothesis, predictions compared to near - future observations, and all that does not always get pre-eminence in the exchanges about models.

It's important to note that a substantial short - term influence on the globe's average temperature, the cycle of El Niño warmth and La Niña cooling in the tropical Pacific Ocean, was in the warm phase until May but a La Niña cooling is forecast later this year, according to the Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

«To summarize - Using the 60 and 1000 year quasi repetitive patterns in conjunction with the solar data leads straightforwardly to the following reasonable predictions for Global SSTs 1 Continued modest cooling until a more significant temperature drop at about 2016 - 17 2 Possible unusual cold snap 2021 - 22 3 Built in cooling trend until at least 2024 4 Temperature Hadsst3 moving average anomaly 2035 — 0.15 5Temperature Hadsst3 moving average anomaly 2100 — 0.5 6 General Conclusion — by 2100 all the 20th century temperature rise will have been reversed, 7 By 2650 earth could possibly be back to the depths of the little ice age.

Green house gases emissions in the production and use of ethanol from sugarcane in Brazil: The 2005/2006 averages and a prediction for 2020

Global Temperature is an example of a bulk property, and it does indeed average out over sufficient time scales; hence showing that whatever chaos, spatio - temporal or otherwise, is present in the system on short timescales it does not affect our longer term predictions.

In effect, MAE quantifies the average magnitude of the errors in a set of predictions without considering their sigIn effect, MAE quantifies the average magnitude of the errors in a set of predictions without considering their sigin a set of predictions without considering their sign.

At the moment they are saying the wet season will come in under average because of El Nino, but of course a continuing warmer Indian Ocean may upset that prediction.

Predictions, an early baby El Nino this coming year, 2014, will fade and 2014 will be the 9 nth coldest of recent years Arctic Sea Ice extent will speed up in the coming months and go through the average to record a positive anomaly within 12 weeks.

And this: Validation» on functionals with high «configurational entropy» (like globally averaged anything, an infinite number of configurations can give the same number) should be rather unconvincing (in this case where the empirical knobs of the various parametrizations are balanced in exquisite relative alignment to prevent nonsense output) if the intended use is prediction.

«Validation» on functionals with high «configurational entropy» (like globally averaged anything, an infinite number of configurations can give the same number) should be rather unconvincing (in this case where the empirical knobs of the various parametrizations are balanced in exquisite relative alignment to prevent nonsense output) if the intended use is prediction.