Sentences with phrase «average probabilities for»

These aspects might just mean that the effects on the climate in the southern tier of states should be as expected for a moderately strong El Nino instead of an outright strong one, so that we would still expect above - average probabilities for a wet winter in the southern tier.

Not exact matches

The author of this study, Joni Hersch, finds that after controlling for other factors that determine wages, women employed in jobs with an average probability of being sexual harassed are paid a compensating differential of 25 cents per hour relative to women employed in jobs with no risk of sexual harassment.

Bar 3 - Opening reversal up from moving average, possible low of day, but low probability so swing or wait, but consecutive bear bars, better to wait for a strong bull breakout, or more buying pressure and second entry buy

[16:00] Pain + reflection = progress [16:30] Creating a meritocracy to draw the best out of everybody [18:30] How to raise your probability of being right [18:50] Why we are conditioned to need to be right [19:30] The neuroscience factor [19:50] The habitual and environmental factor [20:20] How to get to the other side [21:20] Great collective decision - making [21:50] The 5 things you need to be successful [21:55] Create audacious goals [22:15] Why you need problems [22:25] Diagnose the problems to determine the root causes [22:50] Determine the design for what you will do about the root causes [23:00] Decide to work with people who are strong where you are weak [23:15] Push through to results [23:20] The loop of success [24:15] Ray's new instinctual approach to failure [24:40] Tony's ritual after every event [25:30] The review that changed Ray's outlook on leadership [27:30] Creating new policies based on fairness and truth [28:00] What people are missing about Ray's culture [29:30] Creating meaningful work and meaningful relationships [30:15] The importance of radical honesty [30:50] Thoughtful disagreement [32:10] Why it was the relationships that changed Ray's life [33:10] Ray's biggest weakness and how he overcame it [34:30] The jungle metaphor [36:00] The dot collector — deciding what to listen to [40:15] The wanting of meritocratic decision - making [41:40] How to see bubbles and busts [42:40] Productivity [43:00] Where we are in the cycle [43:40] What the Fed will do [44:05] We are late in the long - term debt cycle [44:30] Long - term debt is going to be squeezing us [45:00] We have 2 economies [45:30] This year is very similar to 1937 [46:10] The top tenth of the top 1 % of wealth = bottom 90 % combined [46:25] How this creates populism [47:00] The economy for the bottom 60 % isn't growing [48:20] If you look at averages, the country is in a bind [49:10] What are the overarching principles that bind us together?

If, for example, the average potential gain is 3 %, but the average potential loss (with just a 30 % probability) is -8 %, then the expected return is actually negative -LRB-.7 x 3 % +.3 x -8 % = -0.3 %).

Whilst we can't know the future of course, for financial planning purposes the probability is that life expectancy on average will increase in the future as medicine advances to cure or limit the big killers (cancer, cardiovascular disease etc).

As Bill Hester recently observed, the current level of economic activity has had a much higher probability of being recessionary in periods when the S&P 500 was also weak — for example, below its level of 6 months earlier, or below its 12 - month moving average.

Drawing your levels in this manner gives you a better reference point to look for signals from since you are getting closer to the mean or average turning point price in the market, so it's basically a higher - probability level than a level that's further out but exactly at a bar high or low.

Because the average life expectancy of males, females, and married couples is 82, 85, and 89, respectively, and the probability that one member of a married couple will live to age 95 is 18 percent for the average American, it is reasonable to anticipate that replacing static retirement periods with survival probabilities will provide evidence of even greater consumption gaps (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 2010).

Since the probability for any one of these prophecies having been fulfilled by chance averages less than one in ten (figured very conservatively) and since the prophecies are for the most part independent of one another, the odds for all these prophecies having been fulfilled by chance without error is less than one in 102000 (that is 1 with 2000 zeros written after it)!

For the probability of a Conservative majority we give an average of the implied probability from sites offering this market.

With other factors constant, the authors found that Internet users had an average predicted probability of depression of.07, whereas that probability for nonusers was.105.

Even with more beetles munching on them, an increase of 2 °C — the current target cap for global warming — bumps the average mosquito's probability of survival into adulthood by 53 %.

Probability of positive or negative trends averaged across regions 4MDA8 (ppb / yr) for 2000 — 2014.

«If we assume that a person has an average follicular density of 27 follicles per cm2 (for instance, on areas such as the arms and thighs), an active area of 2 — 6 mm2 maximizes the probability of hitting a single follicle in a randomly positioned, untargeted measurement,» say the researchers.

Probability of positive or negative trends averaged across regions SOMO35 (ppb day / yr) for 2000 — 2014.

The NAS panel concluded that for 30 year averages this was the warmest in 400 years with «likely» probability (> 66 %).

Red indicates regions of North America for which a statistical analysis using two climate models indicated there is a 97.5 percent probability that average temperatures will rise by at least 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) by 2070.

Averages 1 - Mode, Median and Mean Averages 2 - Which Average is Best Averages 3 - Grouped Data (Estimated Mean) Averages 4 - Mean vs Estimated Mean Bar Charts Binomial Distribution 1 - Investigation and Introduction Binomial Distribution 2 - Solving Problems Binomial Distribution 3 - Expectation and Variance Box Plots Coding Combining Data Sets Cumulative Frequency Discrete Random Variables Expectation and Variance Frequency Polygons Histograms 1 - Drawing Histograms 2 - Interpreting Interpolation - Estimating the Median Moving Averages Normal Distribution 1 - Standard Normal Normal Distribution 2 - Non-Standard Normal Distribution 3 - Backwards and Further Problems Normal Distribution 4 - Approximation for Binomial Distribution Pictograms Pie Charts 1 - Drawing Pie Charts 2 - Interpreting Product Moment Correlation Coefficient (PMCC) Poisson Distribution Probability 1 Probability 2 Probability 3 Probability 4 Probability 5 Questionnaires Regression Lines Sampling Scatter Diagrams Sets 1 - 2 sets Sets 2 - 3 sets Sets 3 - Probability Sets 4 - Conditional Probability Skewness Spearman's Rank Correlation Coefficient Standard Deviation and the Variance Stem and Leaf Diagrams Two Way Tables Probability Distribution Function NOTE: Feel free to browse my shop for more excellent free and premium resources and as always please rate and feedback, thank you.

Students at PARCC's college - ready cutoff score in math have an 85 percent probability of earning a math «C» average or better, whereas students at the MCAS cutoff score for proficiency in math have only a 62 percent probability of doing so.

For the average person, taking an online course has a negative effect on the probability of taking another course in the same field and on the probability of earning a degree.

If you believed that 13.7 % was the expected return for the S&P over the same period, and that the annual volatility of the S&P was 15.4 % (its historical average since 1970) then you would be able to calculate that the probability of the S&P beating the Treasury over the next ten years is 99.9992 %.

Bender has found that for a retiree of average income, a $ 10,000 increase in pension income per year increases the probability of being very satisfied with retirement by only one percentage point.

Purchasing assets for less than their real worth lowers risk and increases the probability of higher than average returns.

During these severe sector bear markets, I ran industry screens searching for companies that had an above average probability of surviving their industry's recession.

Various types of insurance (health, car, life) protect you from relatively low probability but very expensive events in life (cancer, serious car accident, etc.) For the average person, it makes sense...

To pay attention to market risk, purely and simply, most of the time directly conflicts with an analyst's attempts to invest in securities where minimal investment risks are combined with probabilities for above - average long - term returns.

Standard deviation provides a credible model for understanding the probability of outcomes far away from the mean (average).

* Global temperature for 2007 is expected to be 0.54 °C above the long - term (1961 - 1990) average of 14.0 °C; * There is a 60 % probability that 2007 will be as warm or warmer than the current warmest year (1998 was +0.52 °C above the long - term 1961 - 1990 average).

But next season, Barry Bonds will be 39 years old, so the probability that he will average more than 51 home runs a year for the next 5 seasons is very low — almost certainly less than 1 chance in 10.

Despite how things look, the new Climate Prediction Center's forecast for the Feb - Mar - Apr period calls for an enhanced probability for above average rain — about 50 % chance, versus the neutral 33 % chance.

With this in mind, and given how difficult it can be to dislodge deeply - entrenched ridging such as is currently being observed, I estimate that there is an above average probability that total precipitation for water year 2013 - 2014 will be below normal once again.

The NAS panel concluded that for 30 year averages this was the warmest in 400 years with «likely» probability (> 66 %).

But your statement: «Given that, it's easy to see why a subjective Bayesian method will usually NOT produce perfect probability matching when averaging over a distribution for true parameter values that is different from the prior it uses» reveals a major problem.

For both variants of the uniform prior subjective Bayesian method, probability matching is nothing like exact except in the unrealistic case where the sample is drawn equally from the entire calibration range — in which case over-coverage errors in some regions on average cancel out with under - coverage errors in other regions, probably reflecting the near symmetrical form of the stylised overall calibration curve.

Were the hypothesis that warming will increase at least 1C / decade averaged over a millennium at 95 % confidence, nineteen times in twenty, given the noise in the signal, all other things being equal, we'd first need 17 years at least to get some kinda sketchy data, and then could begin calculating from the set of subsequent running or independent 17 year spans (a different calculation for each, depending on the PDF) the probability that a -20 C decade would be consistent with a +1 C / decade hypothesis.

Seasonal forecasts for the next two months indicate a high probability for continued above average temperature over most of the northern hemisphere in August and September, but average or below average temperatures just off the Siberian coast (see Figure 11).

For example, a wind turbine certified to the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) Class IA is designed for average wind speeds of 10 m / s over its design life, among other parameters.4 The turbine also is designed for a specific wind - speed probability distributiFor example, a wind turbine certified to the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) Class IA is designed for average wind speeds of 10 m / s over its design life, among other parameters.4 The turbine also is designed for a specific wind - speed probability distributifor average wind speeds of 10 m / s over its design life, among other parameters.4 The turbine also is designed for a specific wind - speed probability distributifor a specific wind - speed probability distribution.

If we want to obtain a function T (x, y, z, t) obeying certain non linear PED / ODE we will look for a PARTICULAR type type of solution: T (x, y, z, t) = Ta (x, y, z) + u (x, y, z, t) where Ta (x, y, z) is a time average of T (x, y, z, t) over a certain period L (eventually a bit space averaged around the point (x, y, z)-RRB- AND u (x, y, z, t) is a random variable with a known probability density distribution.

Two summers back, here within view of Colorado Springs» Waldo Canyon conflagration, I vividly recall some details: a) a hoisted ember astonishingly re-igniting things across a mile wide mountain lake, breaching the NE perimeter; b) our relative humidity, the day of the blaze, was so low the am weatherman uttering «you night as well say we have none;» c) the flown - in Commander, on camera and perhaps the best mind in all the world on matters such, describing never before witnessed probabilities for live ember re-ignitions, as «perhaps two out of three;» & d) that sad day's all - time record setting mark of 101 F., here @ 6,500 feet + elevations, in that astonishing summer where lower - 48 averages jumped by more than a single degree Fahrenheit in one realm - altering excursion.

If GISS were able to determine exactly what the average global temperature was for any calendar year then you would not need statistical odds and probabilities because there would be no error.

It follows that the average of those two uncertain values represents the probability - weighted expectation for our $ 1,000, which 50 years from now is ($ 30.20 + $ 606.53) / 2 = $ 318.36.

''... [the] extreme anomalies... were a consequence of global warming...» «Global warming causes spring warmth to come earlier...»»... this level of average warming is already having important effects»»... the dice loading is an expected effect of global warming»»... warming may cause snowfall to increase...»»... recent global warming, with high probability, is responsible for recent extreme anomalies»

The two points at the bottom right of Figure 23c represent: warming rates for cases when the temperature is above average; the rates are 0.2 and 0.225 K / year and the probability is about 1 in 800 years.

Probability distributions for average future changes in surface temperature and precipitation, for instance, may be within reach, because the main processes expected to drive such changes are captured in the current generation of climate models.

Might there be some way of using a version / variation of the Monte Carlo Method to evaluate how robust the predicted probabilities are to changes in the assumed «climate average» for the region?

They assumed a probability distribution for «Global Average Temperature».

Probability density functions from different studies for global mean temperature change for the SRES scenarios B1, A1B and A2 and for the decades 2020 to 2029 and 2090 to 2099 relative to the 1980 to 1999 average (Wigley and Raper, 2001; Knutti et al., 2002; Furrer et al., 2007; Harris et al., 2006; Stott et al., 2006b).

According to actuarial tables, a 35 year old has a 50 % probability of being disabled for at least 90 days and the average duration of disability is an incredible 3.5 years.

First, an underwriter will need to determine the probability of an applicant's life lasting as long — or even longer — than the «average» life expectancy for an individual of that particular age and gender.