When scientists compare
average sea ice conditions between years, they often use a 30 - year reference period of 1981 to 2010.
Not exact matches
Arbetter, 4.7, Statistical A statistical model using regional observations of
sea ice area and global NCEP air temperature,
sea level pressure, and freezing degree day estimates continues the trend of projecting below -
average summer
sea ice conditions for the Arctic.
If they do so by simulating near -
average conditions most of the time, they are getting the right answer for the wrong reason, and their predictions of future
sea ice decline should be discounted.
This is substantially lower than the earlier estimates, reflecting both lower than
average sea ice extent used as initial
conditions this summer and a persistent downward trend in
sea ice extent over the past decade (and longer).
Serreze says it's likely warmer - than -
average conditions in the Arctic will persist and continue to limit
sea -
ice formation.
This is pretty squishy, but given the current extent and
ice conditions in the Beaufort
Sea, I think this year's September
average will be about 4 million km2.
This is predicted to produce changes such as the melting of glaciers and
ice sheets, more extreme temperature ranges, significant changes in weather
conditions and a global rise in
average sea levels.
Very warm
conditions continued in the Kara and Barents
seas, with temperatures as much as 3 to 6 degrees Celsius (5 to 11 degrees Fahrenheit) above
average, consistent with the retreat of the
ice cover to the northern edge of the Svalbard, Franz Josef, and New Siberian Islands.
Warm
conditions with temperatures at the 925 hPa level of 1 to 2 degrees Celsius (2 to 4 degrees Fahrenheit) above
average graced the northernmost coasts of Alaska, Canada, and Greenland, but the thick
sea ice that is typical of this region is unlikely to melt out.
Current
sea ice extent and meteorological
conditions suggest a record low is unlikely, as surface temperature over the central Arctic has been near normal in the last two months and forecasts of atmospheric temperatures for the next few weeks indicate
average surface temperatures.