The extraordinary 2012 Arctic sea ice melt has resulted in a September
average sea ice extent of 3.61 million sq km, according to the latest monthly data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), smashing the previous record of 4.30 million sq km set in 2007.
NMEFC of China (Li and Li), 4.02 (3.10 - 4.57), Statistical We predict the September monthly
average sea ice extent of Arctic by statistic method and based on monthly sea ice concentration and extent from National Snow and Ice Data Center.
Li and Li (NMEFC), 5.48 (4.97 - 5.98), Statistical We predict the September monthly
average sea ice extent of Arctic by statistic method.
Not exact matches
We have much better — and more conclusive — evidence for climate change from more boring sources like global temperature
averages, or the
extent of global
sea ice, or thousands
of years» worth
of C02 levels stored frozen in
ice cores.
Substantial reductions in the
extent of Arctic
sea ice since 1978 (2.7 ± 0.6 percent per decade in the annual
average, 7.4 ± 2.4 percent per decade for summer), increases in permafrost temperatures and reductions in glacial
extent globally and in Greenland and Antarctic
ice sheets have also been observed in recent decades.
The annual
average extent of Arctic
sea ice is currently declining at about half a million square kilometres per decade — equivalent to about twice the area
of the UK.
This image shows a visualization
of Arctic
sea ice cover on Sept. 12, 2013, with a yellow line showing the 30 - year
average minimum
extent.
The Arctic's
sea ice maximum
extent has dropped by an
average of 2.8 percent per decade since 1979, the year satellites started measuring
sea ice.
But over the past decades, the melt season has grown longer and the
average extent of Arctic
sea ice has diminished, changing the game for many Arctic marine mammals — namely beluga, narwhal and bowhead whales; ringed, bearded, spotted, ribbon, harp and hooded seals; walruses; and polar bears.
A composite image shows how the
extent of Arctic
sea ice in September 2016 compared with a 30 - year
average for the month (yellow line).
Satellites show the
extent of Arctic
sea ice on Sept. 16, 2012 as compared to the
average minimum from the past 30 years (yellow line).
Through satellite images, researchers have observed a steep decline in the
average extent of Arctic
sea ice for every month
of the year.
Extent of Arctic sea ice in September 2016 versus the 1981 - 2010 average minimum extent (gold
Extent of Arctic
sea ice in September 2016 versus the 1981 - 2010
average minimum
extent (gold
extent (gold line).
August Arctic
sea ice extent is decreasing at an
average rate
of 10.2 percent per decade.
July Arctic
sea ice extent is decreasing at an
average rate
of 7.3 percent per decade.
Arctic
sea ice extent was below normal for the 11th consecutive April this year, covering an
average of 5.7 million square miles (14.7 million square kilometers) 2.1 percent below the 1979 - 2000
average extent and the 15th smallest April
extent since records began in 1979.
Current predictions [5], [6] suggest that trends in
sea ice extent will alter in the second half
of this century and that the annual
average sea ice extent will diminish by 33 %; most
of this retreat is expected to occur in winter and spring [5], [6], with attendant risks for emperor penguins.
There was a USGS 2010 paper by D Douglas that predicted «For the Bering
Sea, median March
ice extent is projected to be about 25 percent less than the 1979 — 1988
average by mid-century and 60 percent less by the end
of the century» But if Bering
ice is driven by the PDO I suspect that prediction will fail.
If you plot the
average Arctic
Sea Ice extent for 20 years, the you should also plot the monthly maximum and minimum values on the same figure so that we can get some perspective on where the 2007 and 2008 data falls in the context
of annual variability, or examine for trends.
There was a USGS 2010 paper by D Douglas that predicted «For the Bering
Sea, median March
ice extent is projected to be about 25 percent less than the 1979 — 1988
average by mid-century and 60 percent less by the end
of the century» But if Bering
ice is d»
The graph below (high - resolution copy) shows the range
of the forecasts for early September, the point when the
sea ice typically reaches its minimum
extent, compared to recent years and the
average over the period
of precise satellite measurement.
Overall,
sea ice extent declined at a slightly slower rate than normal (relative to the 1981 - 2010 average rate) during June (Figure 6), losing a total of 1.6 million km2 as noted in NSIDC's Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis repo
sea ice extent declined at a slightly slower rate than normal (relative to the 1981 - 2010 average rate) during June (Figure 6), losing a total of 1.6 million km2 as noted in NSIDC's Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis repo
ice extent declined at a slightly slower rate than normal (relative to the 1981 - 2010
average rate) during June (Figure 6), losing a total
of 1.6 million km2 as noted in NSIDC's Arctic
Sea Ice News and Analysis repo
Sea Ice News and Analysis repo
Ice News and Analysis report.
The predicted September monthly
average sea ice extent is 5.48 (4.97 - 5.98) million km2 which is same to the result
of June Report.
Sea ice extent was below
average in the Barents
Sea on the Atlantic side
of the Arctic.
Why, because the current
sea ice extent is already lower than the
average minimum for the decade
of the 90s?
As
of September 5,
sea ice extent remains below average everywhere except for a small area within the Laptev S
sea ice extent remains below
average everywhere except for a small area within the Laptev
SeaSea.
bozzza @ 424, For one theory see: http://forum.arctic-
sea-
ice.net/index.php/topic,724.msg60178.html#msg60178 I believe that the current downward fluctuation in Antarctic
Sea Ice Extent if likely associated with the influence
of our currently strong El Nino on the
average location
of the Amundsen Bellingshausen
Sea Low.
Canadian
Ice Service, 3.8, Heuristic Arctic Ocean September sea ice extents (while expected to be well below the 1979 ‐ 2013 average of 6.4 million square kilometres, and while expected to continue to be near or below 4.0 million square kilometres) are therefore expected to experience a slight recovery, preventing a repeat of last year's reco
Ice Service, 3.8, Heuristic Arctic Ocean September
sea ice extents (while expected to be well below the 1979 ‐ 2013 average of 6.4 million square kilometres, and while expected to continue to be near or below 4.0 million square kilometres) are therefore expected to experience a slight recovery, preventing a repeat of last year's reco
ice extents (while expected to be well below the 1979 ‐ 2013
average of 6.4 million square kilometres, and while expected to continue to be near or below 4.0 million square kilometres) are therefore expected to experience a slight recovery, preventing a repeat
of last year's record.
In both the Arctic and the Antarctic «natural causes» (the seasons) are responsible for the seasonal decrease / increase in
sea ice extent, which are,
of course, much larger than the
average annual change.
Not only that, the
extent of Arctic
sea ice in February was 7.54 percent below the 1981 — 2010
average, and the lowest since record - keeping started in 1979.
Millions
of square kilometers
sea ice extent Month — last 5 years — baseline End July — 8.73 — 10.10 End Aug — 6.04 — 7.67 End Sep — 5.02 — 7.04
Average — 6.60 — 8.27 Difference 1.67 million square kilometers (msk) Cumulated loss = 20 %
What is also stunning are
sea -
ice daily
extent figures
averaging ice loss
of more than 100,000 square kilometres per day for the last four days.
For the month
of November, the Arctic
sea ice extent averaged 9.08 million square kilometers, which is 1.95 million square kilometers below the recorded 1981 to 2010 long - term
average for the said month.
Predictions, an early baby El Nino this coming year, 2014, will fade and 2014 will be the 9 nth coldest
of recent years Arctic
Sea Ice extent will speed up in the coming months and go through the
average to record a positive anomaly within 12 weeks.
The figure below shows the
average Arctic
sea ice extent for each week
of the year for every year between 1978 and 2017.
The so - called minimum
sea -
ice extent in «07 was at that time the lowest since satellite monitoring began in 1979, covering an
average of 1.65 million square miles.
Satellite observations indicate that the
average Arctic
sea ice extent has generally decreased since the start
of the satellite records in October 1978.
Much has been made
of the fact that the April 2010
sea ice extent data released by the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) were near the long - term climatological average (Figure
ice extent data released by the National Snow and
Ice Data Center (NSIDC) were near the long - term climatological average (Figure
Ice Data Center (NSIDC) were near the long - term climatological
average (Figure 4).
Last winter,
sea ice extent was on the low side, but the melting trajectory looks pretty
average for the decade
of the 2000's.
The first half
of 2017 has seen record low
sea ice extents at both poles and near - record global
average temperatures — despite the absence
of a...
The total
extent of the Arctic
sea ice reached 5.59 million square miles, which is about 450,000 square miles less than the
average and 20,000 square miles more than 2017.
Animation
of changes in
average September
sea ice extent from 1979 through 2016 — with noteworthy natural variability and a long - term decline.
This time series
of daily global
sea ice extent (Arctic plus Antarctic) shows global
extent tracking below the 1981 to 2010
average.
However, the pace
of decline returned to near -
average rates by July, and the end -
of - summer minimum
sea ice extent, recorded on September 10, eventually tied for second lowest with 2007 (2012 remains the lowest in the satellite time series by more than 600,000 square kilometers or 232,000 square miles).
Stern: My estimate for September
average sea ice extent (4.67 million square kilometers) was simply based on extrapolation
of the 10 - year trend (1989 - 2008).
The
average arctic
sea ice monthly extent for September 2012 was the lowest observed in the satellite era at 3.6 million square kilometers, based on National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) estimates — 50 % lower than the 1979 - 2000 average of 7.0 million square kilomete
ice monthly
extent for September 2012 was the lowest observed in the satellite era at 3.6 million square kilometers, based on National Snow and
Ice Data Center (NSIDC) estimates — 50 % lower than the 1979 - 2000 average of 7.0 million square kilomete
Ice Data Center (NSIDC) estimates — 50 % lower than the 1979 - 2000
average of 7.0 million square kilometers.
In the Southern Hemisphere, overall
sea ice extent shifted from near -
average over the first half
of the year to sharply below
average in mid-August.
This reflects a December pattern
of faster - than -
average growth in the Arctic, and slightly slower - than
average sea ice extent decline in the Southern Ocean.
NSIDC is transitioning the
sea ice extent time series graphs to show interquartile and interdecile ranges, with the median
extent value, in place
of standard deviations and the
average values.
Thus, when
sea ice is retreating or advancing at a high rate over the course of the month, as was the case for December 2016, the Sea Ice Index monthly average can yield a larger extent than from simply averaging daily extent valu
sea ice is retreating or advancing at a high rate over the course of the month, as was the case for December 2016, the Sea Ice Index monthly average can yield a larger extent than from simply averaging daily extent valu
ice is retreating or advancing at a high rate over the course
of the month, as was the case for December 2016, the
Sea Ice Index monthly average can yield a larger extent than from simply averaging daily extent valu
Sea Ice Index monthly average can yield a larger extent than from simply averaging daily extent valu
Ice Index monthly
average can yield a larger
extent than from simply
averaging daily
extent values.