Observed changes in (a) global average surface temperature; (b) global
average sea level rise from tide gauge (blue) and satellite (red) data and (c) Northern Hemisphere snow cover for March - April.
Not exact matches
It shows that the greatest threats to the UK come
from periods of too much or too little water, increasing
average and extreme seasonal temperatures, and
rising sea levels.
The team found that results
from the two methods roughly matched and showed that Greenland is losing enough ice to contribute on
average 0.46 millimetres per year to global
sea -
level rise.
The report's authors, who also include scientists
from federal agencies, Columbia University and the South Florida Water Management District, concluded that evidence supports a «worst - case» global
average sea -
level rise of about 8.2 feet by 2100.
Any reforms to come
from the process, starting next week, would affect about 62 percent of New York state's population, the proportion estimated to reside now in areas that could be hard hit as
rising land and ocean temperatures raise
average sea levels around the globe.
Rob and Dave's research found that these processes give
rise to the potential for more than one meter of global
average sea -
level rise from Antarctica alone over the course of this century, and more than 15 meters over the next five centuries.
The Fourth Assessment Report finds that «Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident
from observations of increases in global
average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and
rising mean
sea level.
Take South Florida, where, a few years back, the rate of
sea level rise shot up
from close to the global
average to something much higher.
Ocean heating accounts for about 40 percent of global
sea level rise, because water expands as it warms up; global
average sea level from January through November was also a record high, the WMO said.
«Globally
averaged sea -
level rise anomaly (relative to 1986 — 2005) owing to thermal expansion (red line, as in Fig. 2), and the example
from the IPCC AR4 (dashed green line) for RCP8.5 (a), RCP4.5 (b) and RCP2.6 (c).
a base value
sea -
level rise of 0.5 m relative to the 1980 — 1999
average be used, along with an assessment of potential consequences
from a range of possible higher
sea -
level rise values.
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident
from observations of increases in global
average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and
rising global
average sea level.
This approximation (very) closely tracks
sea -
level rise from 1880 to 2000 by assuming that the rate at which height increases is a strict linear function of the temperature with a straight
averaging of the calculated rate for a period
from 15 years before to the point in time for which height is being calculated (i.e., the embedding period).
For example, the latest (fifth) assessment report
from the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects that the global
average sea level rise over the course of the 21st century would be in the range of 10 to 32 inches, with a mean value of about 19 inches.
Consider ground water extraction first: If its ground water extraction that is causing a 1 mm per year
rise in
sea level, and the water is being drawn
from aquifers comprising 1 % of land area, and the
average porosity is 1 %, and
sea surface to land surface ratio is 7:3 then:
The study said
sea level rise, caused by factors including a thaw of glaciers,
averaged about 1.2 millimeters (0.05 inch) a year
from 1901 - 90 — less than past estimates — and leapt to 3 mm a year in the past two decades, apparently linked to a quickening thaw of ice.
The global
average sea level has already
risen by about eight inches since 1901, with up to another two and a half feet of
sea level rise possible by 2100, according to the most recent projections
from the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Projected globally
averaged sea -
level rise at the end of the 21st century (2090 to 2099), relative to 1980 to 1999 for the six SRES scenarios, ranges
from 0.19 to 0.58 m (Meehl et al., 2007).
Global
sea -
level rise is accelerating:
from 1993 to 2003 the rate was 70 percent higher than the
average rate for the twentieth century.
For the planet's
sea level, this would mean over a half - foot
rise averaged around the globe, in comparison with
average sea levels from 1986 to 2005.
It notes that: 80 % of carbon dioxide emissions come
from only 19 countries; the amount of carbon dioxide per US$ 1 GDP has dropped by 23 % since 1992, indicating some decoupling of economic growth
from resource use; nearly all mountain glaciers around the world are retreating and getting thinner; and
sea levels have been
rising at an
average rate of about 2.5 mm per year since 1992.
Data
from satellite measurements show that
sea levels have increased by about three inches on
average worldwide since 1992 suggesting that
sea levels are
rising more quickly than anticipated and faster than they did 50 years ago.
At the onset of the deglaciation, a ~ 500 - year long, glacio - eustatic event may have contributed as much as 10 m to
sea level with an
average rate of about 20 mm / yr... RSL (relative
sea level) records indicate that
from ~ 7 to 3 ka, GMSL likely
rose 2 to 3 m to near present - day
levels.
the 20th century
average is 2 mm / yr, observations
from 1992 - 2002 are 3.4 mm / yr observations
from 2003 - 2011 are 2.4 mm / yr when corrected for an abundance of La Ninas,
sea level rise from 2003 - 2011 is «adjusted» to 3.3 mm / yr
From this it can be seen that in some places
sea level trend is
rising whilst in others it is falling, so giving a global
average disguises the nuances of what is happening locally, where it matters.
The Fourth Assessment Report finds that «Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident
from observations of increases in global
average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and
rising mean
sea level.
Their 0.2 mm / yr figure is taken to be consistent with an observed total
sea level rise of 1.6 mm / yr
from JASON - 1 and 2, but global
averages from those satellites indicate a
rise of about 2.5 mm / yr over the same period.
«Our results
from this study imply that if future anthropogenic warming effects in the Indo - Pacific warm pool dominate natural variability, mid-ocean islands such as the Mascarenhas Archipelago, coasts of Indonesia, Sumatra, and the north Indian Ocean may experience significantly more
sea level rise than the global
average,» Han said.
The most recent report
from the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projected a global
average sea level rise of between about one to three feet, although that report did not take the new findings on Antarctic ice melt into account.
Sea level is projected to rise by another 1 to 4 feet in this century, although the rise in sea level in specific regions is expected to vary from this global average for a number of reaso
Sea level is projected to
rise by another 1 to 4 feet in this century, although the
rise in
sea level in specific regions is expected to vary from this global average for a number of reaso
sea level in specific regions is expected to vary
from this global
average for a number of reasons.
The evidence comes
from direct measurements of
rising surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures and, indirectly,
from increases in
average global
sea levels, retreating glaciers, and changes in many physical and biological systems.
(1) there is established scientific concern over warming of the climate system based upon evidence
from observations of increases in global
average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and
rising global
average sea level;
Obviously this conspiracy theory is utterly absurd, and is easily disproven by simply examining the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) published in 2001, two years before Mörner's accusation of falsified
sea level data, which shows an approximately 10 to 15 mm
rise in
average global
sea level from 1993 to 1998 (Figure 3).
Fluctuations in the mass of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are of considerable societal importance as they impact directly on global
sea levels: since 1901, ice losses
from Antarctica and Greenland, alongside the melting of small glaciers and ice caps and thermal expansion of the oceans, have caused global
sea levels to
rise at an
average rate of 1.7 mm / yr.
Accounting for the TOPEX - A instrumental correction for the first 6 years of the altimetry data set, these studies provided a revised global mean
sea level time series that slightly reduces the
average GMSL
rise over the altimetry era (
from 3.3 mm / yr to 3.0 mm / yr) but shows clear acceleration over 1993 - present.
However, confidence in the regional distribution of
sea level change
from AOGCMs is low because there is little similarity between models, although nearly all models project greater than
average rise in the Arctic Ocean and less than
average rise in the Southern Ocean.
[5]
From 1950 to 2009, measurements show an average annual rise in sea level of 1.7 ± 0.3 mm per year, with satellite data showing a rise of 3.3 ± 0.4 mm per year from 1993 to 2009, [6] a faster rate of increase than previously estima
From 1950 to 2009, measurements show an
average annual
rise in
sea level of 1.7 ± 0.3 mm per year, with satellite data showing a
rise of 3.3 ± 0.4 mm per year
from 1993 to 2009, [6] a faster rate of increase than previously estima
from 1993 to 2009, [6] a faster rate of increase than previously estimated.
There is medium confidence that at least partial deglaciation of the Greenland ice sheet, and possibly the West Antarctic ice sheet, would occur over a period of time ranging
from centuries to millennia for a global
average temperature increase of 1 - 4 °C (relative to 1990 - 2000), causing a contribution to
sea -
level rise of 4 - 6 m or more.
As it turns out, estimates of globally
averaged sea level rise in the 20th century are irrelevant since Tuvalu's local
sea level change is very different
from the globally
averaged change.
That one was the Pacific based on the longest records available which says: «The estimated
average rate of
sea level rise from the longest records is computed to be +0.3 mm / yr, almost an order of magnitude less than the IPCC estimates.»
Melting of ice raises the global
average sea level, and reduces the gravitational attraction
from the ice, which allows the
sea level near the ice to fall while
sea level far
from the ice
rises more than the global
average.
Statistically significant trends obtained
from records longer than 40 years yielded
sea -
level -
rise estimates between 1.06 — 1.75 mm / yrear - 1, with a regional
average of 1.29 mm yr - 1, when corrected for global isostatic adjustment (GIA) using model data, with a regional
average of 1.29 mm - 1..
Since the 1920s, the global
average sea level has
risen about nine inches, mostly
from the thermal expansion of the ocean water.
Amrit Banstola: The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) stated that — warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident
from scientific observations of increases in global
average temperature, melting of snow and ice, and
rising of global
average sea level.
For example, the melting of the Greenland ice sheet broke previous records in 2002, 2005, and 2007, and seasonal melting
from 1996 to 2007 was above average compared with the 1973 - 2007 period.10, 11 The melting of the Greenland ice sheet contributed around 0.02 inch (0.6 millimeter) to global sea - level rise in 2005 — more than double the 1996 contribution.4 From 1993 to 2003 the average rate of sea - level rise increased to about 0.12 inches (3.1 millimeters) per year.12 That means that in 2005 Greenland could have contributed 19 percent of the average annual global sea level rise r
from 1996 to 2007 was above
average compared with the 1973 - 2007 period.10, 11 The melting of the Greenland ice sheet contributed around 0.02 inch (0.6 millimeter) to global
sea -
level rise in 2005 — more than double the 1996 contribution.4
From 1993 to 2003 the average rate of sea - level rise increased to about 0.12 inches (3.1 millimeters) per year.12 That means that in 2005 Greenland could have contributed 19 percent of the average annual global sea level rise r
From 1993 to 2003 the
average rate of
sea -
level rise increased to about 0.12 inches (3.1 millimeters) per year.12 That means that in 2005 Greenland could have contributed 19 percent of the
average annual global
sea level rise rate.
Different approaches have been used to compute the mean rate of 20th century global mean
sea level (GMSL)
rise from the available tide gauge data: computing
average rates
from only very long, nearly continuous records; using more numerous but shorter records and filters to separate nonlinear trends
from decadal - scale quasi-periodic variability; neural network methods; computing regional
sea level for specific basins then
averaging; or projecting tide gauge records onto empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) computed
from modern altimetry or EOFs
from ocean models.
Rob and Dave's research found that these processes give
rise to the potential for more than one meter of global
average sea -
level rise from Antarctica alone over the course of this century, and more than 15 meters over the next five centuries.
However,
from the late 19th century,
sea level rise has
averaged more than two millimeters per year.
As Media Matters has noted, the IPCC's 2007 «Synthesis Report» concluded that» [w] arming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident
from observations of increases in global
average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice and
rising global
average sea level» and that» [m] ost of the observed increase in global
average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely [defined in the report as a» > 90 %» probability] due to the observed increase in anthropogenic [human - caused] GHG [greenhouse gas] concentrations.»
The IPCC has already concluded that it is «virtually certain that human influence has warmed the global climate system» and that it is «extremely likely that more than half of the observed increase in global
average surface temperature
from 1951 to 2010» is anthropogenic.1 Its new report outlines the future threats of further global warming: increased scarcity of food and fresh water; extreme weather events;
rise in
sea level; loss of biodiversity; areas becoming uninhabitable; and mass human migration, conflict and violence.