All it is the correlation of the seasonal cycle with the long term
average seasonal cycle.
As I read it, the W (weather) function would not only include weather, as I would normally understand it, but the difference between the local seasonal cycle and the globally
averaged seasonal cycle.
Not exact matches
Those expectations are based on analysis of historical precedence, including the
average market gains in the third year of the presidential election
cycle, strong momentum, earnings growth,
seasonal trends, accelerating economic growth, and the normal market performance around the first Fed rate hike.
The area has a predictable
seasonal cycle, where the water rises and descends, with
average changes of about 35 feet during the course of the year.
TOA radiation anomalies are determined from monthly
averages by removing the
seasonal cycle then smoothing with a twelve - month running mean.
Tuning to the
seasonal cycle, or to the climatological
average, or to the variance of some field — which can be well characterised from observations, is different to tuning to a transient change of over time — which is often less well known.
(57m) However, externally imposed forcings with a global
average externally imposed RF may tend to cause similar climatic responses both in the global
average and in regional / latitudinal and
seasonal (modulation of response to external - forcing
cycles that themselves are held constant) and internal variability patterns, provided they are not too idiosyncratic.
And, that just coincidently, the rate of the rise has consistently been (when
averaged over a few year period to smooth out variability due to
seasonal cycles and other factors) equal to about half of the emissions of CO2 that we are putting into the atmosphere?
Also, just because the
average pole - to - equator temperature gradient is decreasing doesn't mean that the
seasonal variation won't still be in place, and then there's the whole issue of the hydrologic
cycle intensification — a moister atmosphere carries more latent heat and thus may generate more intense mid-latitude storms as well.
• Solar generating capacity continues to be rolled out, as costs decline expanding to supply the
seasonal maximum of daily
average, with pumped hydro to provide daily balancing until superior technologies come on - line, and open -
cycle gas turbines shifting to a purely back - up function, with consequent substantial reductions in overall fossil CO2 emissions.
Third, the ice core data how conclusively that, during natural climate
cycling, changes in temperature precede changes in carbon dioxide by an
average 800 years or so (Fischer et al, 1999; Indermuhle et al, 2000; Mudelsee, 2001; Caillon et al, 2003); similarly, temperature change precedes carbon dioxide change, in this case by five months, during annual
seasonal cycling (Kuo, Lindberg and Thomson, 1990).
Any change in CO2 levels should be calculated from calendar year
averages or 12 month moving
averages to remove the
seasonal cycle.
The global amplitude of the
seasonal cycle globally is 3.5 K (which I think is a hemispheric
average about 10 K of warming in the NH and -3 K of «warming» in the SH).
I don't think he did anything with cloud height or cloud cover, so I'm confused by your question, but either way the plots reflect monthly global
average data with a 12 running mean applied to smooth out the
seasonal cycle.
Meanwhile, the global
average, after controlling for the
seasonal cycle, popped above 400ppm late last year.
Is there a diurnal or
seasonal cycle or is this
averaged out as well?
In reality each end of a full
seasonal cycle (as good as near each monthly
average compared to the previous year) ends higher than the start of the same
seasonal cycle.
Seems unlikely to make much difference over large scale
averages but wouldn't this be a potential problem for accurate reproduction of more intricate details like
seasonal or diurnal
cycles in individual grid cells or regions?
Seasonal cycle Δαs / ΔTs values are the difference between 20th - century mean April and May αs
averaged over Northern Hemisphere continents divided by the difference between April and May Ts
averaged over the same area and time period.
The latter is determined as a moving
average of SEVEN adjacent
seasonal cycles centered on the month to be corrected, except for the first and last THREE and one - half years of the record, where the
seasonal cycle has been
averaged over the first and last SEVEN years, respectively.
There is a
seasonal cycle in global mean temperature which means that on
average, July and August are roughly 3.6 ºC (6.5 ºF) warmer than December and January.
In making their
seasonal outlook, which was released on May 23, NOAA cited a broad area of above -
average sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic Basin, a continuation of a natural
cycle of above -
average hurricane activity, and a lack of an El Niño event in the Pacific Ocean as reasons why there may be more storms this year.