It's true that above average CAPE ratios have led to lower than
average stock market returns in the past.
Not exact matches
Still, even if you take out the Obama Trauma,
in which the
stock market fell nearly 13 % following the current president's election
in 2008 — and, to be fair, the country was
in the middle of a financial panic — the
average return in a month following the election is 0.4 %.
And while NerdWallet emphasizes that past
market performance doesn't guarantee you'll earn the
average historical
return of 10 %
in the future, the value of investing
in stocks over a long period of time is still significant.
During the 20 - year period ending
in 2012, the S&P 500 index
returned an annual
average of 8.21 percent, but the
average person who invested
in stock -
market mutual funds earned only 4.25 percent.
In the 1980s and 1990s, when
stocks and bonds alike racked up double - digit
average returns, the
markets did most of the work.
We gradually scale our investment exposure
in proportion to the
average return / risk profile that
stocks have provided under similar conditions (primarily defined by valuation and
market action).
Logically, by taking more risk —
in paying up to own «growth»
stocks at higher multiples than the
market average — one should expect to achieve higher
returns.
Although the
average return to
stocks has been poor
in the current Climate, we certainly don't narrow that into an expectation of where the
market will move on any particular day or week.
The
average annual
stock market return over the last century is a case
in point.
In their October 2012 paper entitled «Quantifying the Behavior of
Stock Correlations Under Market Stress», Tobias Preis, Dror Kenett, Eugene Stanley, Dirk Helbing and Eshel Ben - Jacob relate average stock return correlations to stock market conditions with focus on dramatic market lo
Stock Correlations Under
Market Stress», Tobias Preis, Dror Kenett, Eugene Stanley, Dirk Helbing and Eshel Ben - Jacob relate average stock return correlations to stock market conditions with focus on dramatic market l
Market Stress», Tobias Preis, Dror Kenett, Eugene Stanley, Dirk Helbing and Eshel Ben - Jacob relate
average stock return correlations to stock market conditions with focus on dramatic market lo
stock return correlations to
stock market conditions with focus on dramatic market lo
stock market conditions with focus on dramatic market l
market conditions with focus on dramatic
market l
market losses.
The unsystematic variations of
average returns across quintiles undermine belief that variations
in margin debt reliably predict
stock market returns.
Investing may earn you more based on oft - quoted long term
averages but, consider this, if the
market tanks by 50 %
in one year, it would take over 7 years of so called «
average stock market returns of 10 %» to
return to the same position you were
in just prior to the loss, and that is not even factoring
in inflation.
In the past, above -
average stock market valuations were followed by below -
average long - term
returns.
In fact, you can learn how it's possible to more than double the annual
returns of the
stock market averages.
From low valuations,
average stock market returns have been strong
in both periods where the yield curve was upward sloping and where it was inverted.
Table 1 shows the excess
returns for a number of valuation metrics within the U.S. Large
Stocks universe, stocks trading in the U.S. with a market capitalization greater than average from 1964 to
Stocks universe,
stocks trading in the U.S. with a market capitalization greater than average from 1964 to
stocks trading
in the U.S. with a
market capitalization greater than
average from 1964 to 2015.
Looking back through history, whenever value
stocks have gotten this cheap, subsequent long - term
returns have generally been strong.3 From current depressed valuation levels, value
stocks have
in the past, on
average, doubled over the next five years.4 Not that we necessarily expect
returns of this magnitude this time around, but based on the data and our six decades of experience investing through various
market cycles, we believe the current risk / reward proposition is heavily skewed
in favor of long - term value investors.
For the Dow Jones Industrial
Average, since 1926, the odds of a 10 % correction happening are 1
in 3 — they are par for the course when it comes to the
stock market's value proposition (which is that the price for higher
returns is higher volatility).
Overall I've
averaged about 12 % yearly
returns in the
stock market, so nowhere near my Tesla experience, but fairly good for a completely passive approach to investing.
Rising
stock markets — the S&P 500 has tripled since reaching a low
in March 2009 and over the last 10 years, the largest public pension plans have earned an
average return of 7.45 percent, broadly
in line with the median long - term goal of 8 percent — have boosted pension plan coffers to the highest level of assets they've ever had.
Over time these volatile periods
in the
stock market's history have «evened» out to a real «
average return» of 8 %, however, unless your investment time frame is 50 or more years, you can not rely on these skewed
returns with any degree of certainty.
For example, I'm considering buying funds invested
in the Biotech, Software / IT, Retailing, Pharmaceuticals, and Chemicals sectors of the
market, which have outperformed the typical 7 %
average annual
return of a typical «all
stocks all sectors» portfolio.
To calculate how long it will take to double your money when investing
in the
stock market (using the
average net
market returns of 8 % for example) divide 8 into 72 and get 9 years.
While it's true that
stocks average a 10 % annual
return, it's rare that the
stock market produces a
return close to that
average in any given year.
But
in only one of those twenty years (2004) were
stock market returns anywhere near the
average for the entire time span.
So the
average stock investor captured only half of
stock market returns in the past 20 years.
Instead, if the individual had invested that money
in a well diversified
stock fund
returning a conservative rate of
return of 10 % (the
stock market has
average 11.8 % over the last 70 years) he would have $ 557,275 sitting
in his account after inflation!
By investing that $ 2,000
in the broad
stock market you would receive on
average $ 220.00
in return per year.
In fact, independent research firms estimate that the
average stock investor's
returns trail the
stock market significantly.
The $ 102,000 investment
in a four - year college yields a rate of
return of 15.2 percent per year — more than double the
average return over the last 60 years experienced
in the
stock market (6.8 percent), and more than five times the
return to investments
in corporate bonds (2.9 percent), gold (2.3 percent), long - term government bonds (2.2 percent), or housing (0.4 percent).
Most analysts who are forecasting
stock market returns in line with historical
averages are not arguing for higher multiples, but faster earnings growth.
While the
average stock -
market return over the past 80 years was about 10 % (about 7 % after inflation), the actual
return in any given year can be much higher or lower.
But I am going to assume you are more sophisticated than that — you have money
in the
stock market through mutual or index funds, generally considered to
average an 8 %
return.
Simply this: The
stock market isn't poised to produce
returns that are
in line with even its long - term annualized
average of around 10 %, much less the 20 % - plus
returns we have seen over the past five years.
According to BankRate.com, the
average stock market return since the turn of the last century is 9.4 % — 4.8 %
in price appreciation, plus approx 4.6 %
in dividends.
Low - risk
stocks do better than
stocks as a whole because their
return is only slightly lower
in bull
markets and is much better than
average in bear
markets.
e.g. on a universe of all liquid
stocks with pretty generous liquidity filters (price > $ 1, mcap > $ 100 million, on the
market for at least 1 year, inflation - adjusted daily dollar volume
in the last 63 days > $ 100,000), before friction, and hold for 5 days (no other sell rule), tested on all start dates Sept 2, 1997 forward to Aug 18, 2015 and then
averaged CAGR, leaving an
average of 3360
stocks in the universe to then test: a. 17.6 % cagr bottom 5 % of
stocks left by bad 4 day
return (requiring price > ma200 was slightly worse than this at 17.4 %; but requiring price < ma5 was better at 18.1 %) b. 16.0 % cagr bottom 5 % of
stocks left by bad 5 day
return c. 14.6 % cagr bottom 5 % by rsi (2) d. 14.7 % cagr for rsi (2) < 5 I have tested longer backtests on simpler liquidity filters (since my tests can't use all of the above filters on very long tests) and this still holds true: bad
return in the last 4 or 5 days beats low rsi (2) for 1 week holds.
On the other hand, if you invest it
in the
stock market and get an
average return of 8.34 % a year you would both have to pay capital gains taxes on that money and expose yourself to the risk of the
stock market disappointing you.
True, the
markets have
returned more than that historically: during the 25 years ending
in 2007, even T - Bills
averaged almost 7 %, while bonds
returned close to 11 % and
stocks almost 12 %.
Each percentage point of unemployment rate translates into 78 basis points (bps) of
stock market excess
return compared to cash for each year, on
average, of the subsequent two years;
in other words, each 1 % jump
in unemployment is associated with 1.56 % of incremental
stock market return over the two - year period.
If you have too many
stocks in your portfolio, it certainly helps to
average out the declines
in the
stocks across your portfolio, and smooth out the portfolio
return in the bear
market.
When
stocks stay
in the same portfolio for two successive years, i.e. they don't migrate, they produce
returns that are close to the
market average, regardless of the category.
According to data from Roofstock,
average annual
returns in the $ 3 trillion single - family rental
market are comparable to
stock market returns and outperform bond
returns, but with considerably less volatility.
In general, investors use 10 percent as an
average stock market return over 10 years.
Year
in and year out, professional money managers fail to beat the
average stock market return.
They are more likely to be invested
in index funds for bonds or
stocks, or a collection of mutual funds which they periodically review, and are quite content with getting the
average market return on their investment.
SimplyWallst — Founded on a fundamental belief that investing can be made simple and everybody can be a successful investor
in a
stock market that
averaged a yearly
return of 10 % over the last 100 years.
But, if they had invested that money over the same period
in the
stock market, they could have ended up with over $ 500,000
in savings by the time that they retired if they had gotten an
average return of 7 %.
Too many people try to speculate
in the
stock market and they are just not prepared to take the time and energy that is NECESSARY to earn above -
average returns.
If today's Shiller P / E is 22.2, and your long - term plan calls for a 10 % nominal (or with today's inflation about 7 - 8 % real)
return on the
stock market, you are basically rooting for the absolute best case
in history to play out again, and rooting for something drastically above the
average case from these valuations.