This year, forecasters with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are expecting to see above -
average storm numbers in the Atlantic, despite the uncertainty of whether an El Niño will develop over the summer.
So given the signals that forecasters have to work with, they expect a 45 percent chance of above -
average storm numbers, a 35 percent chance of near - normal, and only a 20 percent chance of below - normal activity.
Not exact matches
Instead they predict, on
average, whether there might be 10
storms per winter in the future, or a certain
number of additional hot days in the summer.
The 2014 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be quieter than normal, with a below -
average number of
storms and hurricanes, a leading U.S. hurricane forecasting team said last week.
In addition to the rise in major hurricanes in the Atlantic basin, the
average number of named hurricanes each year has increased to about seven
storms from five
storms, though the exact reasons for this rise are still the subject of research.
The 1981 - 2010
average number of named
storms in the East Pacific is 16.5, with 8.9 hurricanes, and 4.3 major hurricanes.
There are still almost three months to go in the hurricane season, and there have already been an above -
average number of named
storms.»
It turned out to be an
average year for the
number of
storms.
[Response: In fact, 2006 was slightly above
average w / 10 total named
storms, and substantially above
average for an El Nino year (for which the typical
number of named
storms is closer to 7).
Let me restate his point: there is no evidence yet of an impact of global warming on the intensity of the
average hurricane, on the regions where the tropical
storms form and on the
number of tropical
storms.
As I summarize in the book: «global warming, which ought to intensify the
average hurricane, could also change the regions of
storm formation or the
numbers of
storms that form in the first place.
Take an
average number of
storms (6) in a given year, with, say an
average of 50 million dollars in damage.
-- Tropical cyclones near
average overall / Historic Super Typhoon: The
number of tropical cyclones during 2013 was slightly above
average, with a total of 94
storms, in comparison to the 1981 - 2010
average of 89.
HOWEVER, the
number of tropical cyclones with intensity greater than 34 - knots has remained at the 30 - year
average (83
storms per year).
By 2100 the
number of hurricanes could drop by up to a third, but the
average intensity of the
storm could increase by as much as 11 %.
«These
numbers are well above the long - term
averages of 4.4
storms and 2.1 hurricanes that would normally have formed by this date.»
The team then compared the oxygen isotope ratio for each year's wet season from 1990 to 2010 with a cyclone activity index of the
average accumulated energy expended, based on factors such as
number of cyclones, cyclone strength, size and time on
storm track.
Worldwide there will likely be an
average increase in the maximum wind speed of tropical cyclones (hurricanes and typhoons) of 2 to 11 %.6 Because of the way extremes respond to changes such as these, Category 4 and 5 hurricanes are expected to nearly double in
number by the end of the century.7 The rate of rainfall associated with tropical cyclones, an important factor in flooding, is expected to increase approximately 20 % within 100 km of the center of these
storms.8
One of the points Ross and Chris made in Taken by
Storm is that there is an infinite
number of possible global
averages (in fact, even in a small space, such as a single classroom, an infinite
number of possibilities exists).
Instead of using 120 years of history to calculate the
average number of
storms each year, RMS used the scientists» work as the basis for a new crystal ball, a computer model that would estimate
storms for the next five years.
During El Nino years, that
number dropped to an
average of 2.47
storms.
Key findings from these experiments include: fewer tropical cyclones globally in a warmer late - twenty - first - century climate (Figure 8), but also an increase in
average cyclone intensity, the
number and occurrence days of very intense category 4 and 5
storms in most basins (Figure 9) and in tropical cyclone precipitation rates (Figure 10).
Graphic showing that we've been in an active period of tropical cyclone activity since 1995, where the
average number of named tropical
storms has jumped significantly to 15.2 per year.
For example, just having an above -
average number of
storms will by itself raise the odds of a landfalling
storm.
The
average number of named
storms per year is just under 12, according to the Atlantic Hurricane Database information provided by NOAA.
Because this city has experienced a higher - than -
average number of natural disasters (
storms, blizzards and even hurricanes), business property insurance rates may be higher than in other cities.