Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach On another thread, a poster got me thinking about the common practice of using the El Nino 3.4 Index to remove some of the variability from the historical global
average surface temperature record.
On another thread, a poster got me thinking about the common practice of using the El Nino 3.4 Index to remove some of the variability from the historical global
average surface temperature record.
Jacob (and many, many others) seem to think that if model A, when run from 1900 to present, predicts the relatively flat, global
average surface temperature record over the past decade, is a better match to reality than model B which does not.
Not exact matches
What's more, there are several long - term
records of global annual
average surface temperatures.
Land and Ocean Combined: The combined
average temperature over global land and ocean
surfaces for August 2014 was the
record highest for the month, at 61.45 °F (16.35 °C), or 1.35 °F (0.75 °C) above the 20th century
average of 60.1 °F (15.6 °C).
The global
average temperature over land and ocean
surfaces for January to October 2014 was the highest on
record, according to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
According to NOAA scientists, the globally
averaged temperature over land and ocean
surfaces for August 2014 was the highest for August since
record keeping began in 1880.
Ocean Only: The August global sea
surface temperature was 1.17 °F (0.65 °C) above the 20th century
average of 61.4 °F (16.4 °C), the highest on
record for August.
Ocean Only: The global ocean
surface temperature for the year to date was 0.99 °F (0.55 °C) above
average, tying with 2010 as the second warmest such period on
record, behind only 1998.
Ocean Only: The June - August global sea
surface temperature was 1.13 °F (0.63 °C), above the 20th century
average of 61.5 °F (16.4 °C), the highest for June - August on
record.
Land Only: The January - August worldwide land
surface temperature was 1.82 °F (1.01 °C) above the 20th century
average, the fifth warmest such period on
record.
During 2016,
average temperatures were the highest reported since
record keeping began in 1880, reaching 1.69 degrees F (0.94 degrees C) above the
average for land and sea
surfaces in the 20th century.
The June 2013 globally -
averaged temperature across ocean
surfaces was the 10th highest in the 134 - year period of
record, at 0.48 °C (0.86 °F) above the 20th century
average.
The
average global sea
surface temperature tied with 2010 as the second highest for January — August in the 135 - year period of
record, behind 1998, while the
average land
surface temperature was the fifth highest.
With
records dating back to 1880, the global
temperature across the world's land and ocean
surfaces for August 2014 was 0.75 °C (1.35 °F) higher than the 20th century
average of 15.6 °C (60.1 °F).
«The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said global land
surface temperatures in January and April were likely the warmest since
records began in 1880, at more than 1 degree Celsius higher than
average for those months.
The annually -
averaged temperature for ocean
surfaces around the world was 0.74 °C (1.33 °F) higher than the 20th century
average, easily breaking the previous
record of 2014 by 0.11 °C (0.20 °F).
In a key region of the tropical Pacific, the November
average sea
surface temperature beat out
records from 1983 and 1997, according to the European Centre for Medium - Range Weather Forecasts.
With the contribution of such
record warmth at year's end and with 10 months of the year
record warm for their respective months, including the last 8 (January was second warmest for January and April was third warmest), the
average global
temperature across land and ocean
surface areas for 2015 was 0.90 °C (1.62 °F) above the 20th century
average of 13.9 °C (57.0 °F), beating the previous
record warmth of 2014 by 0.16 °C (0.29 °F).
The warmth was due to the near -
record strong El Niño that developed during the Northern Hemisphere spring in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean and to large regions of
record warm and much warmer - than -
average sea
surface temperatures in parts of every major ocean basin.
Across the world's oceans, the September — November
average sea
surface temperature was 0.84 °C (1.51 °F) above the 20th century
average of 16.0 °C (60.7 °F), the highest for September — November on
record, surpassing the previous
record set last year by 0.27 °C (0.15 °F).
In August global sea
surface temperatures reached
record levels — the
average temperature was 1.17 degrees Fahrenheit higher than the 20th century
average.
The
average global
temperature across land
surfaces was 1.31 °C (2.36 °F) above the 20th century
average of 5.9 °C (42.6 °F), the fifth highest November
temperature on
record.
Most of Earth's land
surfaces were warmer than
average or much warmer than
average, according to the Land & Ocean
Temperature Percentiles map above, with
record warmth notable across most of equatorial and northeastern South America and parts of southeastern Asia.
For the oceans, the November global sea
surface temperature was 0.84 °C (1.51 °F) above the 20th century
average of 15.8 °C (60.4 °F), the highest for November on
record, surpassing the previous
record set last year by 0.20 °C (0.36 °F).
Separately, the global land
surface temperature was 1.89 °C (3.40 °F) above
average, the highest on
record for December, surpassing the previous
record set in 2006 by 0.48 °C (0.86 °F).
The
average land
surface temperature was also
record high, at 1.27 °C (2.29 °F) above
average, surpassing the previous
record of 2010 by 0.15 °C (0.27 °F).
The December 2015 globally -
averaged temperature across land and ocean
surfaces was 1.11 °C (2.00 °F) above the 20th century
average of 12.2 °C (54.0 °F), the highest for any month since
records began in 1880, surpassing the previous all - time
record set two months ago in October by 0.12 °C (0.21 °F).
The June
temperature for the mid-troposphere (roughly 2 miles to 6 miles above the
surface) was the fifth highest for June in the 1979 — 2016
record, at 0.50 °F above the 1981 — 2010
average, as analyzed by UAH.
The March — May globally
averaged sea
surface temperature was 1.40 °F above the 20th century
average of 61.0 °F — the highest for March — May in the 1880 — 2016
record, surpassing the previous
record of 2015 by 0.20 °F.
The June globally
averaged sea
surface temperature was 1.39 °F above the 20th century monthly
average of 61.5 °F — the highest global ocean
temperature for June in the 1880 — 2016
record, surpassing the previous
record set in 2015 by 0.05 °F.
The June - August
temperature for the mid-troposphere (roughly 2 miles to 6 miles above the
surface) was the third highest for June - August in the 1979 — 2016
record, at 0.65 °F above the 1981 — 2010
average, as analyzed by UAH.
The June — August globally
averaged sea
surface temperature was 1.39 °F above the 20th century
average of 61.5 °F the highest for June — August in the 1880 — 2016
record, surpassing the previous
record of 2015 by 0.02 °F.
The May globally
averaged sea
surface temperature was 1.37 °F above the 20th century monthly
average of 61.3 °F — the highest global ocean
temperature for May in the 1880 — 2016
record, surpassing the previous
record set in 2015 by 0.09 °F.
Much warmer - than -
average temperatures engulfed most of the world's oceans during June 2016, with
record high sea
surface temperatures across parts of the central and southwest Pacific Ocean, northwestern and southwestern Atlantic Ocean, and across parts of the northeastern Indian Ocean.
Similar to the March — May global land and ocean
surface temperature, the March — May land
surface temperature was also the fourth highest three - month departure from
average for any three - month period on
record.
The April globally
averaged sea
surface temperature was 1.44 °F above the 20th century monthly
average of 60.9 °F — the highest global ocean
temperature for April in the 1880 — 2016
record, surpassing the previous
record set in 2015 by 0.25 °F and besting 1998, the last time a similar strength El Niño occurred, by 0.43 °F.
The July globally
averaged sea
surface temperature was 1.42 °F above the 20th century monthly
average of 61.5 °F — the highest global ocean
temperature for July in the 1880 — 2016
record, surpassing the previous
record set in 2015 by 0.07 °F.
The July
temperature for the mid-troposphere (roughly 2 miles to 6 miles above the
surface) tied with 2010 as the second highest for July in the 1979 — 2016
record, at 0.67 °F above the 1981 - 2010
average, as analyzed by UAH.
The May
temperature for the mid-troposphere (roughly 2 miles to 6 miles above the
surface) was the second highest for May in the 1979 — 2016
record, at 0.83 °F above the 1981 — 2010
average, as analyzed by UAH.
(a) Global
surface temperature record (1870 — 2010) relative to the
average global
surface temperature for 1961 — 1990 (black line).
The globally
averaged temperature over land and ocean
surfaces for 2015 was the highest among all years since
record keeping began in 1880.
During the final month, the December combined global land and ocean
average surface temperature was the highest on
record for any month in the 136 - year
record.
Earth's
average surface temperature in 2017 placed as the second or third highest on
record, according to new analyses by NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
The September globally
averaged sea
surface temperature was 1.33 °F above the 20th century monthly
average of 61.1 °F, tying with 2014 as the second highest global ocean
temperature for September in the 1880 — 2016
record, behind 2015 by 0.16 °F.
During the final month, the December combined global land and ocean
average surface temperature was the third highest for December in the 137 - year
record.
For the contiguous United States and Alaska, 2016 was the second - warmest year on
record and the 20th consecutive year that the annual
average surface temperature exceeded the 122 - year
average since
record keeping began, according to NOAA.
«The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said global land
surface temperatures in January and April were likely the warmest since
records began in 1880, at more than 1 degree Celsius higher than
average for those months.
Further, by global warming I refer explicitly to the historical
record of global
average surface temperatures.
-- The December — February worldwide land
surface temperature was 0.59 °C (1.06 °F) above the 20th century
average, the 20th warmest such period on
record.