The general question surrounding the prevention of climate change is whether the earth can avoid a 2 °C situation — that is, whether we can reduce greenhouse gas emissions swiftly enough to keep global
average surface temperatures from rising to 2 °C (3.6 °F) above pre-industrial levels.
According to the BBC, «The panel states that it is 95 percent certain that the «human influence on climate caused more than half the observed increase in global
average surface temperatures from 1951 - 2010.»»
When international delegates meet in Paris next year to negotiate a new global climate agreement, they'll be aiming to keep global
average surface temperatures from rising more than 2 degrees Celsius beyond pre-industrial levels.
I was referring to the plot of absolute
average surface temperatures from different models against the projected rate of warming for 2011 to 2070 from those same models; this is the next to last graphic from Gavin's post.
It's easy to see that there was a sharp increase in global
average surface temperatures from the 1970s through the end of the 1990s.
It is extremely likely that more than half of the observed increase in global
average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and other anthropogenic forcings together.
AR5: It is extremely likely that more than half of the observed increase in global
average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and other anthropogenic forcings together.
Item 8 could be confusing in having so many messages: «It is extremely likely that more than half of the observed increase in global
average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas... The best estimate of the human - induced contribution to warming is similar to the observed warming over this period....
In the entirely subjective opinion of a particular group of IPCC authors, it's «extremely likely» (95 % certain) that «more than half of the observed increase in global
average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010» was caused by human - generated greenhouse gas emissions (see the bottom of p. 13 here).
In 2013, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report stated a clear expert consensus that: «It is extremely likely [defined as 95 - 100 % certainty] that more than half of the observed increase in global
average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the anthropogenic [human - caused] increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and other anthropogenic forcings together.»
This backs up the IPCC attribution statement «It is extremely likely [95 percent confidence] more than half of the observed increase in global
average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and other anthropogenic forcings together.»
Again IPCC attribution statement: «It is extremely likely [95 percent confidence] more than half of the observed increase in global
average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and other anthropogenic forcings together.»
«It is extremely likely -LCB- 95 % + certainty -RCB- that more than half of the observed increase in global
average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and other anthropogenic forcings together.»
Venus's average surface temperature is 864 degrees Fahrenheit, while Earth's
average surface temperature from 1951 and 1980 was 57.2 degrees Fahrenheit.»
Global warming is an increase in the Earth's
average surface temperature from human - made greenhouse gas emissions.
that more than half of the observed increase in global
average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and other anthropogenic forcings together.»
«It is extremely likely that human influence on climate caused more than half of the observed increase in global
average surface temperature from 1951 − 2010.»
It is extremely likely [95 percent confidence] all of the observed increase in global
average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and other anthropogenic forcings together.
It also follows using the same semantics that: «It is more likely than not that more than the entire observed increase in global
average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and other anthropogenic forcings together.»
The phrase «It is extremely likely that more than half of the observed increase in global
average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and other anthropogenic forcings together.»
It is unlikely that human influence on climate caused more than half of the increase in global
average surface temperature from 1951 - 2010.
Over at RealClimate, on this topic they claim» It is extremely likely that more than half of the observed increase in global
average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and other anthropogenic forcings together.
We have two new entries to the long (and growing) list of papers appearing the in recent scientific literature that argue that the earth's climate sensitivity — the ultimate rise in the earth's
average surface temperature from a doubling of the atmospheric carbon dioxide content — is close to 2 °C, or near the low end of the range of possible values presented by the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
lolwot: Does the Otto et al constraint of 0.9 to 2.0 °C TCS not support the IPCC statement «It is extremely likely that human influence on climate caused more than half of the increase in global
average surface temperature from 1951 - 2010.»?
It is extremely likely that human influence on climate caused more than half of the increase in global
average surface temperature from 1951 - 2010.
And as Judith Curry points out about the current climate, there are many problems with the claim that «more than half of the observed increase in global
average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and other anthropogenic forcings together» — far from speaking for itself, the statement needs unpacking and its premises interrogating.
The IPCC says (in the AR5 SPM), «It is extremely likely [defined as 95 - 100 % certainty] that more than half of the observed increase in global
average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the anthropogenic [human - caused] increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and other anthropogenic forcings together.»
The IPCC has already concluded that it is «virtually certain that human influence has warmed the global climate system» and that it is «extremely likely that more than half of the observed increase in global
average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010» is anthropogenic.1 Its new report outlines the future threats of further global warming: increased scarcity of food and fresh water; extreme weather events; rise in sea level; loss of biodiversity; areas becoming uninhabitable; and mass human migration, conflict and violence.
Not exact matches
From that year through 2012, Earth's yearly average surface temperature increased at one - third to one - half the average rate from 1951 through 2
From that year through 2012, Earth's yearly
average surface temperature increased at one - third to one - half the
average rate
from 1951 through 2
from 1951 through 2012.
As of March 2013,
surface waters of the tropical north Atlantic Ocean remained warmer than
average, while Pacific Ocean
temperatures declined
from a peak in late fall.
The misunderstanding stems
from data showing that during the past decade there was a slowing in the rate at which the earth's
average surface temperature had been increasing.
The visualization shows how the 1997 event started
from colder - than -
average sea
surface temperatures — but the 2015 event started with warmer - than -
average temperatures not only in the Pacific but also in in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans.
This year, the event will benefit
from an unseasonably warm winter, with satellite data
from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrationplacing the
average water
surface temperature around Coney Island in December at about 48 degrees Fahrenheit (8.9 degrees Celsius).
The team analyzed an index of sea
surface temperatures from the Bering Sea and found that in years with higher than
average Arctic
temperatures, changes in atmospheric circulation resulted in the aforementioned anomalous climates throughout North America.
Nevertheless, Earthlings would not mistake Gliese 581g for their home planet — in addition to its so - called super-Earth dimensions, it orbits a star far smaller and dimmer than the sun, and its
average surface temperatures would vary dramatically,
from well below freezing on its night side to scorching hot on the day side.
Abstract: Analyses of underground
temperature measurements
from 358 boreholes in eastern North America, central Europe, southern Africa, and Australia indicate that, in the 20th century, the
average surface temperature of Earth has increased by about 0.5 degrees C and that the 20th century has been the warmest of the past five centuries.
Annual
average GCR counts per minute (blue - note that numbers decrease going up the left vertical axis, because lower GCRs should mean higher
temperatures)
from the Neutron Monitor Database vs. annual
average global
surface temperature (red, right vertical axis)
from NOAA NCDC, both with second order polynomial fits.
seems to be incompatible with the statement
from his Annual review paper
from 2000 (see abstract below) that: «The
average surface temperature of the continents has increased by about 1.0 K over the past 5 centuries; half of this increase has occurred in the twentieth century alone.»
Global mean
temperatures averaged over land and ocean
surfaces,
from three different estimates, each of which has been independently adjusted for various homogeneity issues, are consistent within uncertainty estimates over the period 1901 to 2005 and show similar rates of increase in recent decades.
Figure 2: The data (green) are the
average of the NASA GISS, NOAA NCDC, and HadCRUT4 monthly global
surface temperature anomaly datasets
from January 1970 through November 2012, with linear trends for the short time periods Jan 1970 to Oct 1977, Apr 1977 to Dec 1986, Sep 1987 to Nov 1996, Jun 1997 to Dec 2002, and Nov 2002 to Nov 2012 (blue), and also showing the far more reliable linear trend for the full time period (red).
In a key region of the tropical Pacific, the November
average sea
surface temperature beat out records
from 1983 and 1997, according to the European Centre for Medium - Range Weather Forecasts.
Similar to the March — May global land and ocean
surface temperature, the March — May land
surface temperature was also the fourth highest three - month departure
from average for any three - month period on record.
As a result,
temperature variations on Mercury are the most extreme in the Solar System ranging
from -183 °C -LRB--298 °F) to 427 °C (800 °F), although its
average surface temperature is 167 °C (333 °F).
Any way you look it,
from the Climate Prediction Center Outlook through May, to the ongoing warm anomalies in land and sea
surface temperatures, much of the United States is likely to find above
average temperatures in the coming months.
[9]
Temperature changes Global mean surface temperature difference from the average for 1880 &m
Temperature changes Global mean
surface temperature difference from the average for 1880 &m
temperature difference
from the
average for 1880 — 2009.
The
average temperature of asteroids (about 150 — 200 kelvin)-LSB--100 °F to -190 °F] at this distance
from the Sun should cause
surface ice to sublimate away in a matter of a few years or less, which is inconsistent with the billions of years that Themis is thought to have spent at its current location.»
Jacob (and many, many others) seem to think that if model A, when run
from 1900 to present, predicts the relatively flat, global
average surface temperature record over the past decade, is a better match to reality than model B which does not.
Global
surface temperature (
average of the three series
from NOAA, NASA and HadCRU).
More than 95 % of the 5 yr running mean of the
surface temperature change since 1850 can be replicated by an integration of the sunspot data (as a proxy for ocean heat content), departing
from the
average value over the period of the sunspot record (~ 40SSN), plus the superimposition of a ~ 60 yr sinusoid representing the observed oceanic oscillations.
[Response: They measure something different (MSU - TLT is a weighted
average of
temperatures reaching
from the
surface to 10 km, peaking at around ~ 4 km and with significant influence
from surface type depending on elevation and polar latitude).