Human civilization developed over a period of 10,000 years during which global
average surface temperatures remained remarkably stable, hovering within one degree Celsius of where they are today.
Not exact matches
As of March 2013,
surface waters of the tropical north Atlantic Ocean
remained warmer than
average, while Pacific Ocean
temperatures declined from a peak in late fall.
An
average surface temperature of 300 ºF (149 ºC) below zero allows water to build and form impressive, rugged mountain ranges, while nitrogen ice
remains relatively malleable.
However, it is generally not possible to «tune» the models to fit very specific bits of the
surface data and the evidence for that is the
remaining (significant) offsets in
average surface temperatures in the observations and the models.
From the abstract: «Despite ongoing increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases, the Earth's global
average surface air
temperature has
remained more or less steady since 2001.»
So, although each molecule of CO2 that escapes from the oceans will, on
average, be back in the ocean again in five years time, if the sea
surface temperature rises the increase in the atmospheric CO2 will
remain.
Sea
surface temperatures remain in the range of 2 - 4 degrees Celsius above
average as a heat dome high pressure system swelters Japan.
In the last subperiod [2003 - 2014], the global
averaged SULR [
surface upwelling longwave radiation / greenhouse effect] anomaly
remains trendless (0.02 W m − 2 yr − 1) because Ts [global
temperatures] stop rising.
Climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology have increased their chances of sea
surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean
remaining at neutral levels, though still warmer than
average, for the remainder of 2012.
The
temperature of the water below the
surface remained above -
average, as the large area of warmer - than -
average subsurface waters continued to move slowly to the east (a downwelling Kelvin wave).
For all of its warnings, and despite a steady escalation of greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere, the planet's
average surface temperature has
remained pretty much the same for the last 15 years.
The slowdown or «hiatus» in warming refers to the period since 2001, when despite ongoing increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases, Earth's global
average surface air
temperature has
remained more or less steady, warming by only around 0.1 C.
Armchair detectives might call it the case of Earth's missing heat: Why have
average global
surface air
temperatures remained essentially steady since 2000, even as greenhouse gases have continued to accumulate in the atmosphere?
In fact Australian and global
average surface air
temperature has
remained more or less steady since 2001 (e.g. Nature Climate Change, volume 4, pages 222 - 227).
Recent model results, by contrast, suggest that significant impacts will persist for hundreds of thousands of years after emissions cease;» Matthews and Caldeira (2008): «We show first that a single pulse of carbon released into the atmosphere increases globally
averaged surface temperature by an amount that
remains approximately constant for several centuries, even in the absence of additional emissions.»
To return to an earlier point I raised that a linear lapse rate mathematically translates a
temperature change at any altitude to other altitudes including the
surface, I
remain interested in observational data on linearity is terms of a flux - weighted global
average.