They point out that if we assume the data are normally distributed, then the July 2010
average temperature anomaly value was more than 4 standard deviations above the July mean (and they have a lovely graph to emphasize it):
Not exact matches
For example since the
temperature anomalies used in the analyses are local seasonal
averages, then an increase in the
value of a
temperature anomaly might arise simply from a shift in the local
temperature distribution.
, they just say «
average») with a surface
temperature anomaly of GISS with base
value 1951 - 1980!
My amateur spreadsheet tracking and projecting the monthly NASA GISS
values suggests that while 2018 and 2019 are likely to be cooler than 2017, they may also be the last years on Earth with global
average land and ocean surface
temperature anomaly below 1C above pre-industrial
average (using 1850 - 1900 proxy).
The most basic is that there are more real - world observations, including global emissions of CO2 and aerosols and readings at
temperature stations and SST buoys, leading to new
values for stats like globally
averaged temperature anomaly, and the like.
Running twelve - month
averages of global - mean and European - mean surface air
temperature anomalies relative to 1981 - 2010, based on monthly
values from January 1979 to March 2018.
Running twelve - month
averages of global - mean and European - mean surface air
temperature anomalies relative to 1981 - 2010, based on monthly
values from January 1979 to April 2018.
Running twelve - month
averages of global - mean and European - mean surface air
temperature anomalies relative to 1981 - 2010, based on monthly
values from January 1979 to February 2018.
Since MEA stated (in Figure 1 of the SI) that ensemble -
average temperature response
anomalies were relative to 1850, and nowhere did the paper suggest that forcings were treated differently, as
anomalies relative to 1850 - 59 or any other period, it seemed to me to be natural to use the forcing
values as they were.
Note: Excel used to calculate the 3 - year absolute
temperature and CO2 level
averages; also used to calculate the moving 36 - month and 360 - month per century acceleration / deceleration trends (Excel slope function) as depicted on chart; the absolute temps calculated using the HadCRUT4 month
anomalies and NOAA's monthly global mean
temperature estimates; and, the 3 - year
average beginning
value for CO2 was offset to a zero starting place.
But many concerns appear: (1) error bars should be growing as long as we move to the past, (2) error bars should be much greater than they are, (3) the estimated
value for
averaged temperature anomaly is basically fictitious.
Running four - month
averages of
anomalies over land areas for SW Europe with respect to 1981 - 2010 for precipitation, the relative humidity of surface air, the volumetric moisture content of the top 7 cm of soil and surface air
temperature, based on monthly
values from January 1979 to March 2018.
Running four - month
averages of
anomalies over land areas for NE Europe with respect to 1981 - 2010 for precipitation, the relative humidity of surface air, the volumetric moisture content of the top 7 cm of soil and surface air
temperature, based on monthly
values from January 1979 to March 2018.
Running four - month
averages of
anomalies over land areas for SW Europe with respect to 1981 - 2010 for precipitation, the relative humidity of surface air, the volumetric moisture content of the top 7 cm of soil and surface air
temperature, based on monthly
values from January 1979 to February 2018.
Running four - month
averages of
anomalies over land areas for NW Europe with respect to 1981 - 2010 for precipitation, the relative humidity of surface air, the volumetric moisture content of the top 7 cm of soil and surface air
temperature, based on monthly
values from January 1979 to February 2018.
That is, if a 5 - deg latitude by 5 - deg longitude grid does not have a
temperature anomaly value in a given month, it is not included in the global
average value of HADCRUT4.
In particular, there is nothing special about 1980, since a zero
value merely indicates that the difference between the
temperatures at that time is equal to the difference between the
average temperatures over the
anomaly calculation period.
Anomalies are computed by subtracting the mean monthly
value (
averaged from 1979 through 1998 for each channel) from the
average brightness
temperature for each month.
Importantly, however, day - to - day and month - to - month departures from
average temperature (the difference between the individual daily or monthly
value and the long - term mean, also known as
temperature anomalies) are consistent across very large distances.
Where absolute
temperature values (rather than
anomalies) are quoted as an area
average for Australia or a region, this is done by first calculating the
anomaly as above, and then adding that to a fixed estimate of the area
average for the standard 1961 — 1990 reference period.
Calculating the
average temperature anomaly with this technique has the effect of weighting each location
value according to how large its «footprint» is.
RSS and UAH monthly near - global satellite lower - troposphere
temperature anomaly values for each month from January 2001 to April 2016 were assumed to be broadly accurate and were
averaged.
Running four - month
averages of
anomalies over land areas for NE Europe with respect to 1981 - 2010 for precipitation, the relative humidity of surface air, the volumetric moisture content of the top 7 cm of soil and surface air
temperature, based on monthly
values from January 1979 to April 2018.
Running four - month
averages of
anomalies over land areas for NW Europe with respect to 1981 - 2010 for precipitation, the relative humidity of surface air, the volumetric moisture content of the top 7 cm of soil and surface air
temperature, based on monthly
values from January 1979 to April 2018.
Running four - month
averages of
anomalies over land areas for SE Europe with respect to 1981 - 2010 for precipitation, the relative humidity of surface air, the volumetric moisture content of the top 7 cm of soil and surface air
temperature, based on monthly
values from January 1979 to April 2018.
Running four - month
averages of
anomalies over land areas for SW Europe with respect to 1981 - 2010 for precipitation, the relative humidity of surface air, the volumetric moisture content of the top 7 cm of soil and surface air
temperature, based on monthly
values from January 1979 to April 2018.