From current trends, we are heading for a global
average temperature increase between 3 °C and 5 °C by the end of the century.
The observed trend of 0.07 deg C per decade for the latest 15 year period is BELOW IPCC's «suggested global
average temperature increases between about 0.15 °C and 0.3 °C per decade».
Since IPCC's first report in 1990, assessed projections have suggested global
average temperature increases between about 0.15 °C and 0.3 °C per decade for 1990 to 2005.
Not exact matches
Their stock prices and business plans depend on digging up and burning these reserves, which would lead to an unsustainable
increase in the
average global
temperature of
between 6 and 12 degrees or more.
Following Earth's last ice age, which peaked 20,000 years ago, the Antarctic warmed
between two and three times the
average temperature increase worldwide, according to a new study by a team of American geophysicists.
According to Flannery, even if we reduce our carbon dioxide emissions by 70 percent by 2050,
average global
temperatures will
increase between two and nine degrees by 2100.
Their analyses show that leaf unfolding occurred, on
average, four days earlier per degree Celcius
increase in spring
temperature between 1980 and 1994, whereas this advance dropped to 2.3 days per degree
between 1999 and 2013, a decrease of over 40 percent.
Expressed as a global
average, surface
temperatures have
increased by about 0.74 °C over the past hundred years (
between 1906 and 2005; see Figure 1).
According to a recent Climate Central analysis, Colorado was the 20th - fastest warming state
between 1970 and 2011, with
average temperatures increasing by about 0.5 °F per decade.
Average daytime temperatures are slowly on the increase and March is 1 °C hotter than last month at 29 °C between average high / lows of 34 °C and 23 °C respec
Average daytime
temperatures are slowly on the
increase and March is 1 °C hotter than last month at 29 °C
between average high / lows of 34 °C and 23 °C respec
average high / lows of 34 °C and 23 °C respectively.
Narrowly scoped, the present situation is either strictly caused by solar variations (in which case I believe the «solar variation» crowd will inappropriately gain credibility over the next 10 to 20 years as we work through the next below
average solar cycle or two), or strictly caused by CO2 concentrations (in which case I believe the «CO2 concentrations» crowd will inappropriately lose credibility as the non-linear relationship (sensitivity is based on doublings, not linear
increases)
between increased CO2 concentrations, and forecasts for below
average solar cycles reduces the longer term upward trend in global
temperatures).
The global
average surface
temperature has risen
between 0.6 °C and 0.7 °C since the start of the twentieth century, and the rate of
increase since 1976 has been approximately three times faster than the century - scale trend.»
Global warming does not mean no winter, it means winter start later, summer hotter, as Gary Peters said «The global
average surface
temperature has risen
between 0.6 °C and 0.7 °C since the start of the twentieth century, and the rate of
increase since 1976 has been approximately three times faster than the century - scale trend.»
This is the difference
between countries» pledged commitments to reduce emissions of heat - trapping greenhouse gases after 2020 and scientifically calculated trajectories giving good odds of keeping global warming below the threshold for danger countries pledged to try to avoid in climate talks in 2010 (to «hold the
increase in global
average temperature below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels»).
Finally, to revisit the question originally posed @ 203: Assuming the IEO2011 Reference case of «1 trillion metric tons of additional cumulative energy - related carbon dioxide emissions
between 2009 and 2035», and given that this case equates to following RCP8.5 until 2035 as previously demonstrated @ 408, what
increase in
average global surface
temperature relative to pre-industrial would result by 2035?
Assuming the IEO2011 Reference case of «1 trillion metric tons of additional cumulative energy - related carbon dioxide emissions
between 2009 and 2035», and given that this case equates to following RCP8.5 until 2035 as previously demonstrated @ 408, what
increase in
average global surface
temperature relative to pre-industrial would result by 2035?
As
temperatures go up, on
average the ratio
between precipitation and evaporation goes down,
increasing droughts.
Early 20th century warming was around.4 oC in three decades The global
average temperature experienced an
increase of +0.57 C
between 1910 and 1944: http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcrut3/diagnostics/global/nh+sh/annual Early 20th century was also about half anthropogenic I'm very curious about where you get this estimate from.
In 2005, during the hottest
average decade on record, 8 low - wind conditions known as «the doldrums» combined with very high ocean
temperatures to cause massive coral bleaching in the Virgin Islands.9 This was followed by a particularly severe outbreak of at least five coral diseases in the Virgin Islands, resulting in a decline in coral cover of about 60 percent.9 There is some indication that higher ocean
temperatures —
between 86 and 95 degrees Fahrenheit (30 to 35 degrees Celsius)-- promote optimal growth of several coral pathogens.9 Other research showed that elkhorn coral post-bleaching had larger disease lesions than unbleached specimens, suggesting that bleaching may
increase the corals» susceptibility to disease.9, 10
In fact, over half of the
increase in the 11 - year moving
average of
temperature in the BoM's «Southeastern Australia»
between 1950 and 2000 occurred BEFORE 1970.
These facts help explain why, in spite of the Earth's air
temperature increasing to a level that the IPCC claims is unprecedented in the the past millennium or more, a recent study by Randall et al. (2013) found that the 14 % extra carbon dioxide fertilization caused by human emissions
between 1982 and 2010 caused an
average worldwide
increase in vegetation foliage by 11 % after adjusting the data for precipitation effects.
Between 1900 and 2010, the
average Midwest air
temperature increased by more than 1.5 °F (Figure 18.1).
The COP, by decision 1 / CP.17, noted with grave concern the significant gap
between the aggregate effect of Parties» mitigation pledges in terms of global annual emissions of greenhouse gases by 2020 and aggregate emission pathways consistent with having a likely chance of holding the
increase in global
average temperature below 2 °C or 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels.
However,
between 1950 and 2010, the
average temperature increased twice as quickly, and
between 1980 and 2010, it
increased three times as quickly as it did from 1900 to 2010.14 Warming has been more rapid at night and during winter.
``... the UN IPCC... estimates that the
average global surface
temperature is likely to
increase by
between 1.4 and 5.8 °C by 2100.»
Typical dialog
between Siri and a Plausible Denialist Siri: The
average global
temperature is
increasing.
Let's take a closer look: globally,
average surface
temperatures increased 1.1 — 1.6 degrees Fahrenheit (0.6 — 0.9 degrees Celsius)
between 1906 and 2005.
Increase in sea surface temperature (global average increase of 0.11 ⁰ C between 1971 and
Increase in sea surface
temperature (global
average increase of 0.11 ⁰ C between 1971 and
increase of 0.11 ⁰ C
between 1971 and 2010) 3.
«
Average global
temperature increases, geographically, at a linear rate from 60 ° N or S latitude towards the equator, but levels off
between the Tropics of Cancer and Capricorn,» Robert Colwell of the University of Connecticut, US, co-author of a recent paper in Science, told environmentalresearchweb.
We've already witnessed nearly a 1 °C
increase in
average global
temperatures from emissions
between 1900 and the early 1970s.
Since IPCC's first report in 1990, assessed projections have suggested global
average temperature increases [at least, because of IPCC's accelerated warming claim]
between about 0.15 °C and 0.3 °C per decade for 1995 to 2010.
There are plenty, but for a conservative example see IPCC Synthesis Report 2007 Table 5.1 which says to stay within 2 - 2.4 degrees global
average temperature increase above pre-industrial (Copenhagen upper «low risk» target) and 425 - 490ppm CO2 - equivalent concentration at stabilisation, the required change in global CO2 emissions in 2050 (percent of 2000 emissions) is decline
between 85 to 50 percent.
When the earth's
temperature rises on
average by more than two degrees, interactions
between different consequences of global warming (reduction in the area of arable land, unexpected crop failures, extinction of diverse plant and animal species) combined with
increasing populations mean that hundreds of millions of people may die from starvation or disease in future famines.
that there is a straightforward relationship
between an
increase in the global
average temperature and the rate at which glaciers melt in the Himalayas [italics added]
The warm anomalies in June lasted throughout the entire month (
increases in monthly mean
temperature of up to 6 to 7 °C), but July was only slightly warmer than on
average (+1 to +3 °C), and the highest anomalies were reached
between 1st and 13th August (+7 °C)(Fink et al., 2004).
To assess the impact on global
average temperature increase, IEA used MAGICC with an emissions pathway in
between the representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 6 from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report.
Between 1985 and 2012, CO2
increased from 345 to 395 ppm, and the
average global
temperature increased by 0.3 — 0.4 deg C. Due to the higher temp, the outgoing radiation from earth
increased over a wide spectral range (3 - 50microns).
The
increase in
average temperature between the nineteenth and twentieth centuries exceeded the
temperature difference
between all other consecutive centuries in each region, except Antarctica and South America.»
The
average global surface
temperature is projected to
increase from 1.4 to 5.8 °C
between 1990 and 2100 (IPCC, 2001).
Reaffirming the unwavering commitment of parties to keep global
average temperature increase well below 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels and the continuum approach
between mitigation, adaptation, loss & damage and finance that is required to ensure equity before 2020.
Average planetary
temperatures increased by a «net» of 0.7 degrees C (1.3 F)
between 1900 and 2000, as atmospheric carbon dioxide levels continued to rise — but not in a straight line: they rose 1900 - 1940, cooled 1940 - 1975 and warmed 1975 - 1995.
They have found evidence of a relationship
between rising
average temperatures in India and reduced wheat production, which was
increasing until about a decade ago but has now stopped.
On the most important issue, the IPCC's claim that «most of the observed
increase in global
average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely (defined by the IPCC as
between 90 to 99 percent certain) due to the observed
increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations,» (emphasis in the original), NIPCC reaches the opposite conclusion — namely, that natural causes are very likely to be the dominant cause.
The Paris Agreement committed countries to addressing the «significant gap»
between their current pledges and «aggregate emission pathways consistent with holding the
increase in the global
average temperature to well below 2 °C above preindustrial levels,» while also «pursuing efforts to limit the
temperature increase to 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels.»
· On
average,
between 1950 and 1993, night - time daily minimum air
temperatures over land
increased by about 0.2 °C per decade.
Figure 16.2: Projected number of days per year with a maximum
temperature greater than 90 °F
averaged between 2041 and 2070, compared to 1971 - 2000, assuming continued
increases in global emissions (A2) and substantial reductions in future emissions (B1).
The global
average surface
between 1906 and 2005, and the rate of
temperature increase has nearly doubled in the last 50 years.
In any case, the impact estimates that I presented in my previous post were based on the worst case (A1FI) scenario which, according to the HadCM3 model, would
increase CO2 concentrations to 810 ppm in 2085 and 970 ppm in 2100, and cause a 4 °C
increase in
average global
temperatures between 1990 and 2085.
When winter storms have been violent, usually because of an
increased contrast
between the
average temperature of land and ocean surfaces, you find a lot more dust and salt spray (indicates wind over oceans) in the cores.
The ice decline is clearly linked with rising global
temperatures, and the chances that the Arctic will be ice - free
increase dramatically when the
average global
temperature rises
between 1.7 and 2.1 degrees Celsius, Screen said.