Steve Reynolds (22)-- Using the stand formula for temperature increases due to addional CO2, I compared 1958 CE (315 ppm) with 1850 (288 ppm) and obtained
the average temperature increase for the 1850s decade to the 1950s decde, close enough.
According to the published report, there is no longer a discrepancy in the rate of global
average temperature increase for the surface compared with higher levels in the atmosphere.
Not exact matches
The deal aims to limit the
average global
temperature increase to below 2C (3.6 F), allowing each country to create its own goals and targets
for addressing rising global
temperatures.
In a small study at the State University of New York at Stony Brook, fertility researchers found that men who sat with working laptops on their laps
for an hour had an
average increase in scrotal
temperature of about 5 degrees Fahrenheit, or about 2.7 degrees Celsius.
A federal report released in November 2016 laid out a strategy
for the United States to «deeply decarbonize» its economy by 2050, and said that developing carbon dioxide removal techniques «may be necessary in the long run to constrain global
average temperature increases to well below 2 °C.»
Substantial reductions in the extent of Arctic sea ice since 1978 (2.7 ± 0.6 percent per decade in the annual
average, 7.4 ± 2.4 percent per decade
for summer),
increases in permafrost
temperatures and reductions in glacial extent globally and in Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have also been observed in recent decades.
To be more specific, the models project that over the next 20 years,
for a range of plausible emissions, the global
temperature will
increase at an
average rate of about 0.2 degree C per decade, close to the observed rate over the past 30 years.
«There has been an
average of one additional tropical cyclone
for each 0.1 - degree Celsius
increase in sea surface
temperature and one hurricane
for each 0.2 - degree Celsius rise,» they write in Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A.
The Paris Agreement sets the goal of holding the
increase in the global
average mean
temperature to well below 2 °C above preindustrial levels but calls
for efforts to limit that
increase to 1.5 °C.
By 2080, the
average temperature in Uganda,
for example, will rise to 29 degree Celsius (an
increase of 4.3 degrees above the current
average), according to a report by U.K. Department
for International Development and LTS International.
NASA researchers found that countries in the Northern Hemisphere had an
average temperature increase of 0.93 C, and latitudes around 60 degrees north or above had an
average temperature increase of 1.8 C, according to Gavin Schmidt, director of GISS and principal investigator
for the GISS Model E Earth System Model.
Results of a new study by researchers at the Northeast Climate Science Center (NECSC) at the University of Massachusetts Amherst suggest that
temperatures across the northeastern United States will
increase much faster than the global
average, so that the 2 - degrees Celsius warming target adopted in the recent Paris Agreement on climate change will be reached about 20 years earlier
for this part of the U.S. compared to the world as a whole.
Using occupancy modeling to control
for variation in detectability, we show substantial (∼ 500 meters on
average) upward changes in elevational limits
for half of 28 species monitored, consistent with the observed ∼ 3 °C
increase in minimum
temperatures.
Climate model simulations suggest that on
average, as the surface
temperature and moisture
increases the conditions
for thunderstorms becomes more frequent.
Still, the biggest cross-European cold / heat study concludes that
for an
increase of 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit in the
average European
temperatures, «our data suggest that any
increases in mortality due to
increased temperatures would be outweighed by much larger short - term declines in cold - related mortalities.»
According to these data, the
AVERAGE GLOBAL TEMPERATURE for the first 9 months of 2008 is LOWER than the average from 2000 thru 2007 by an amount equal to 43.1 % of the total linearized increase (NOAA data) during the 20th c
AVERAGE GLOBAL
TEMPERATURE for the first 9 months of 2008 is LOWER than the
average from 2000 thru 2007 by an amount equal to 43.1 % of the total linearized increase (NOAA data) during the 20th c
average from 2000 thru 2007 by an amount equal to 43.1 % of the total linearized
increase (NOAA data) during the 20th century.
Global mean
temperatures averaged over land and ocean surfaces, from three different estimates, each of which has been independently adjusted
for various homogeneity issues, are consistent within uncertainty estimates over the period 1901 to 2005 and show similar rates of
increase in recent decades.
Mr. Cuccinelli is well known
for his harassment of Michael Mann, a climate scientist vilified by industry apologists
for creating the «Hockey Stick» graph illustrating the
increase of
average global
temperature measurements over the last millennium.
For more than a decade, IPCC scientists have warned that many people will suffer greatly if Earth's
average global
temperature increases by more than 2 ° Celsius (3.6 ° Fahrenheit) over what was typical before the Industrial Revolution.
In end - of - century projections, summers have the largest
increases in
average temperature: 6.5 °F (3.6 °C)
for the stabilization emission scenario, 11.8 °F (6.6 °C)
for the business - as - usual emission scenario.
ACPI assumes a 1 percent annual
increase in the rate of greenhouse gas concentrations through the year 2100,
for little change in precipitation and an
average temperature increase of 1.5 to 2 degrees centigrade at least through the middle of 21st century.
Average daily minimum and maximum temperatures increase in the mid-century and end - of - century projections for both stabilization and business - as - usual emission scenarios (Figure 2 - 10 shows output for annual average daily maximum temper
Average daily minimum and maximum
temperatures increase in the mid-century and end - of - century projections
for both stabilization and business - as - usual emission scenarios (Figure 2 - 10 shows output
for annual
average daily maximum temper
average daily maximum
temperature).
The combination provides
for a dramatic
increase in record hot weather.27 Here «variance» is a measure of the spread of
temperatures around the «mean» or
average temperature.
Scientists have had strong evidence
for decades that fossil fuel emissions are
increasing average global
temperatures, and they have long expected that this warming would trigger extreme weather events.
The WMO warned that continuing on a business as usual path of rising emissions could put the world on track
for 10.8 °F (6 °C)
increase in the global
average temperature.
The projected
increase in annual
average daily maximum
temperature (°F)
for each climate division in Montana
for the periods 2049 - 2069 and 2070 - 2099
for (A) stabilization (RCP4.5) and (B) business - as - usual (RCP8.5) emission scenarios.
In the past year, flea season across the country has been worse than ever due to
increased temperatures on
average throughout the U.S., said Adelia Ritchie, Ph.D., founder and co-owner of DERMagic Skin Care
for Animals in Kingston, Wash., which offers organic flea and tick treatment products.
The
average temperature for this time of year starts off at 18.5 °C on July 1st and very gradually
increases until it reaches 20 °C by July 30th.
During this month, the
average temperature for the resort
increases slightly from 27.5 °C at the start of the month up to 28 °C in the final few days.
For example since the
temperature anomalies used in the analyses are local seasonal
averages, then an
increase in the value of a
temperature anomaly might arise simply from a shift in the local
temperature distribution.
[1] CO2 absorbs IR, is the main GHG, human emissions are
increasing its concentration in the atmosphere, raising
temperatures globally; the second GHG, water vapor, exists in equilibrium with water / ice, would precipitate out if not
for the CO2, so acts as a feedback; since the oceans cover so much of the planet, water is a large positive feedback; melting snow and ice as the atmosphere warms decreases albedo, another positive feedback, biased toward the poles, which gives larger polar warming than the global
average; decreasing the
temperature gradient from the equator to the poles is reducing the driving forces
for the jetstream; the jetstream's meanders are
increasing in amplitude and slowing, just like the lower Missippi River where its driving gradient decreases; the larger slower meanders
increase the amplitude and duration of blocking highs,
increasing drought and extreme
temperatures — and 30,000 + Europeans and 5,000 plus Russians die, and the US corn crop, Russian wheat crop, and Aussie wildland fire protection fails — or extreme rainfall floods the US, France, Pakistan, Thailand (driving up prices
for disk drives — hows that
for unexpected adverse impacts from AGW?)
Now, admittedly, the
temperature increases in the last two decades were greater than any previous, taking the decadal
averages above 10 degrees
for the first time.
Narrowly scoped, the present situation is either strictly caused by solar variations (in which case I believe the «solar variation» crowd will inappropriately gain credibility over the next 10 to 20 years as we work through the next below
average solar cycle or two), or strictly caused by CO2 concentrations (in which case I believe the «CO2 concentrations» crowd will inappropriately lose credibility as the non-linear relationship (sensitivity is based on doublings, not linear
increases) between
increased CO2 concentrations, and forecasts
for below
average solar cycles reduces the longer term upward trend in global
temperatures).
The most recent report concluded both, that global
temperatures are rising, that this is caused largely by human activities and, in addition, that
for increases in global
average temperature, there are projected to be major changes in ecosystem structure and function with predominantly negative consequences
for biodiversity and ecosystems, e.g. water and food supply.
This is the difference between countries» pledged commitments to reduce emissions of heat - trapping greenhouse gases after 2020 and scientifically calculated trajectories giving good odds of keeping global warming below the threshold
for danger countries pledged to try to avoid in climate talks in 2010 (to «hold the
increase in global
average temperature below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels»).
I will bet Gavin Schmidt or any other author on this website $ 200 on LongBets.org that Michael Crichton's projections
for temperature increases are more accurate than the IPCC, assuming that the
temperature being projected is
average lower tropospheric
temperature as measured by satellites.
4) Autumn and winter
temperatures will
increase by a regional
average of 4 °C over the next 30 years — twice the warming projected
for the Northern Hemisphere as a whole --
If you wanted the global / regional / local
averages to somehow provide a measure of
average human misery due to
increasing temperatures, then population - weighted or un-weighted
averages will probably capture that, since the density of met stations is a reasonable proxy
for population density.
Future projections show that,
for most scenarios assuming no additional GHG emission reduction policies, atmospheric concentrations of GHGs are expected to continue climbing
for most if not all of the remainder of this century, with associated
increases in
average temperature.
Anthropogenic climate change will mean an
increased average temperature for the oceans and possible changes in current systems that could locally amplify or reduce warming and can alter nutrient cycling resulting in changes in the amount of nutrients available
for the growth of phytoplankton, the plant plankton that are the base of the food chain.
Is there a discernible point, maybe in a model, that includes reduced albedo in the summer, that might show an acceleration of melting above the
average temperature increase curve
for the region so that ocean warmth has an
increasing role over atmospheric??
For a small amount of absorption, the emission upward and downward would be about the same, so if the upward (spectral) flux from below the layer were more than 2 * the (average) blackbody value for the layer temperature (s), the OLR at TOA would be reduced more than the net upward flux at the base of the layer, decreasing CO2 TOA forcing more than CO2 forcing at the base, thus increasing the cooling of the ba
For a small amount of absorption, the emission upward and downward would be about the same, so if the upward (spectral) flux from below the layer were more than 2 * the (
average) blackbody value
for the layer temperature (s), the OLR at TOA would be reduced more than the net upward flux at the base of the layer, decreasing CO2 TOA forcing more than CO2 forcing at the base, thus increasing the cooling of the ba
for the layer
temperature (s), the OLR at TOA would be reduced more than the net upward flux at the base of the layer, decreasing CO2 TOA forcing more than CO2 forcing at the base, thus
increasing the cooling of the base.
So the main issue
for me is that all «serious» studies show only «statistical trends» having some effects on some measurable quantities, (slight
increase of
average temperature, slight
increase of sea level, slight decrease of northern, but not southern, sea ice,..)
-- Sea surface
temperatures increased: Four independent datasets indicate that the globally
averaged sea surface
temperature for 2013 was among the 10 warmest on record.
In a paper circulated with the anti-Kyoto «Oregon Petition,» Robinson et al. («Environmental Effects of
Increased Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide,» 1998) reproduced K4B but (1) omitted Station S data, (2) incorrectly stated that the time series ended in 1975, (3) conflated Sargasso Sea data with global
temperature, and (4) falsely claimed that Keigwin showed global
temperatures «are still a little below the
average for the past 3,000 years.»
Recognizes that warming of the climate system is unequivocal and that most of the observed
increase in global
average temperatures since the mid twentieth century is very likely due to the
increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations, as assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel
for Climate Change in its Fourth Assessment Report;
For example, if this contribution were to grow linearly with global average temperature change, the upper ranges of sea level rise for SRES scenarios shown in Table SPM - 3 would increase by 0.1 m to 0.2 m. Larger values can not be excluded, but understanding of these effects is too limited to assess their likelihood or provide a best estimate or an upper bound for sea level ri
For example, if this contribution were to grow linearly with global
average temperature change, the upper ranges of sea level rise
for SRES scenarios shown in Table SPM - 3 would increase by 0.1 m to 0.2 m. Larger values can not be excluded, but understanding of these effects is too limited to assess their likelihood or provide a best estimate or an upper bound for sea level ri
for SRES scenarios shown in Table SPM - 3 would
increase by 0.1 m to 0.2 m. Larger values can not be excluded, but understanding of these effects is too limited to assess their likelihood or provide a best estimate or an upper bound
for sea level ri
for sea level rise.
This approximation (very) closely tracks sea - level rise from 1880 to 2000 by assuming that the rate at which height
increases is a strict linear function of the
temperature with a straight
averaging of the calculated rate
for a period from 15 years before to the point in time
for which height is being calculated (i.e., the embedding period).
«Future projections based on theory and high - resolution dynamical models consistently suggest that greenhouse warming will cause the globally
averaged intensity of tropical cyclones to shift towards stronger storms,» Knutson et al. (2010); Grinsted et al. (2013) projected «a twofold to sevenfold
increase in the frequency of Katrina magnitude events
for a 1 °C rise in global
temperature.»
Figure 1: If climate skeptics are right about climate sensitivity (green), then global
average temperature increases will be more moderate this century, shown here
for RCP6 (left) and RCP8.5 (right).