May I remind you however that while Kaufmann indeed holds the same idea on the «essential», stationary, nature of temperature series, he does respect the test results and in all of his analyses he treats the global
average temperature series as an I (1) process.
Deep Climate reports that MckItrick and McIntyre's Washington Roundtable visit came shortly after they had published their first joint paper in the Energy and Environment titled «Corrections to the Mann et al (1998) Proxy Data Base and Northern Hemispheric
Average Temperature Series» (PDF).
al. (1998) PROXY DATA BASE AND NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE SERIES» (PDF), Energy & Environment, Vol.
al. (1998) Proxy Data Base and Northern Hemispheric
Average Temperature Series,» was published in Energy and Environment (Volume 14, Number 6 / November 2003), a journal that was not carried in the ISI listing of peer - reviewed journals and whose peer review process has been widely criticized for allowing the publication of substandard papers.
al. (1998) Proxy Data Base and Northern Hemispheric
Average Temperature Series,» Energy and Environment Vol.
The article, entitled Corrections to the Mann et al. (1998) Proxy Data Base and Northern Hemisphere
Average Temperature Series, was published in the journal Energy and Environment in 2003.
There is concern that models in general have been gently converging on the global
average temperature series.
«Corrections to the McKitrick (2002) Global
Average Temperature Series,» Deltoid, May 20, 2004.
So, how do we tell the homogenized, infilled global
average temperature series are warming from Co2?
When scientists in the 1960s - 70s compiled data to build their global
average temperature series they used state averages of monthly mean temperatures from weather stations around the world.
Corrections to the Mann et al. (1998) Proxy Data Base and Northern Hemisphere
Average Temperature Series Environment and Energy 14 (6) pp. 751 - 771.
Regional
average temperature series built with these networks including and excluding â $ œtypical urban stationsâ $ are compared for the periods of 1954â $ «2005.
This paper is based on 6 monthly globally
averaged temperature series over the common period 1880 - 2012 using data that were publically available in May 2015.
This does not preclude the possibility of some energetic individual re-averaging all of the raw temperature series with process - dependent averaging and THEN looking for the statistical characteristics of this newly
averaged temperature series, but the conclusion I present here is that one can not draw inferences about the EXISTING surface temperature dataset (s) directly.
Not exact matches
Modern researchers have combined the fragmentary, overlapping records they left behind into a
series of annual
temperatures averaged over the region, which stretches from England's south coast 175 miles north to Manchester.
Wondering how that cold spell compares to recent times, atmospheric scientists Susan Solomon of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Aeronomy Laboratory in Boulder, Colorado, and Chuck Stearns of the University of Wisconsin, Madison, tracked the
average monthly
temperatures over the last 15 years at a
series of four automated weather stations located, by coincidence, along Scott's return route.
«This thing is real» A
temperature series study recently published in the International Journal of Climatology found that over 175 years (1838 to 2012), the annual
average temperature in Oslo, Norway, has gone up 1.5 C.
To find out how
average monthly
temperatures had changed from 1847 to 2013, the researchers used an advanced statistical time
series approach to figure out what changes in
temperature were due to natural variability and what changes represented a long - term trend.
Time
series of
temperature anomaly for all waters warmer than 14 °C show large reductions in interannual to inter-decadal variability and a more spatially uniform upper ocean warming trend (0.12 Wm − 2 on
average) than previous results.
In effect, the HadCrut4 and NOAA GlobalTemp global
series simplistically assume
temperature change in the Arctic and other missing areas matches on
average that measured in the rest of the globe.
Hot Yoga comprises a
series of challenging yoga postures practiced in a heated room, with an
average temperature of 40ºC.
Global surface
temperature (
average of the three
series from NOAA, NASA and HadCRU).
Ranked warmest years in the
series going back to 1914 are: # 2006 9.73 °C # 2003 9.51 °C # 2004 9.48 °C # 2002 9.48 °C # 2005 9.46 °C Mean
temperature, sunshine and rainfall for regions of the UK compared with the long - term
average UK regional
averages for 2006, anomalies with respect to 1971 - 2000 Region Mean temp Sunshine Rainfall Actual [°C] Anom [°C] Actual [hours] Anom [%] Actual [mm] Anom [%] UK 9.7 +1.1 1,507 113 1,176 104 England 10.6 +1.2 1,638 112 8,51 102 Wales 9.9 +1.0 1,534 113 1,420 99 Scotland 8.3 +1.1 1,300 112 1,652 109 N Ireland 9.6 +1.0 1,409 115 1,156 104
The attribution study was based on
series of 5 - yr - mean
temperatures and spatial
averages of 90 degree sectors (i.e. to four different sectors), where sectors and periods with no valid data were excluded.
Before anyone gets too excited though, they should take note that the basis for this argument is that the correlation between the global
average temperature and a time
series that represents the AMO is higher than for one that represents ENSO.
Figure 2, Is the
temperature uptick at JRI during the 20th century, as shown by the think
averaged green line, influenced in any way by the fact that it is at the end of the
series.
Thus, the simplest thing to do is to: a) construct a time
series of annual global
temperature averages, add a random component to each year (value drawn from a gaussian with the given standard deviation and mean zero).
In global
average, the number of unprecedented heat records over the past ten years is five times higher than in a stationary climate, based on 150,000
temperature time
series starting in the year 1880.
Averaged the two observational time
series to create an estimated actual
temperature for each year.
As a final step, after all station records within 1200 km of a given grid point have been
averaged, we subtract the 1951 - 1980 mean
temperature for the grid point to obtain the estimated
temperature anomaly time
series of that grid point.
There have been decades, such as 2000 — 2009, when the observed globally
averaged surface -
temperature time
series shows little increase or even a slightly negative trend1 (a hiatus period).
Figure 3 Comparison of global
temperature (
average over 5 data sets, including 2 satellite
series) with the projections from the 3rd and 4 IPCC reports.
In a paper circulated with the anti-Kyoto «Oregon Petition,» Robinson et al. («Environmental Effects of Increased Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide,» 1998) reproduced K4B but (1) omitted Station S data, (2) incorrectly stated that the time
series ended in 1975, (3) conflated Sargasso Sea data with global
temperature, and (4) falsely claimed that Keigwin showed global
temperatures «are still a little below the
average for the past 3,000 years.»
This amount of variance suppression is roughly what you would expect if the underlying annual
temperature time
series had been smoothed with a 400 - year moving
average.
If (1) you have a few hockey stick shaped
series in a smallish data set which otherwise is cancelling noise, and (2) then re-scale your
average to a
temperature scale in the calibration period, you can get hockey stick shaped «reconstructions».
Furthermore, time
series of annual
average temperature and rainfall anomalies in temperate Australia are anti-correlated.
In our analysis we use eight well - known datasets: 1) globally
averaged well - mixed marine boundary layer CO2 data, 2) HadCRUT3 surface air
temperature data, 3) GISS surface air
temperature data, 4) NCDC surface air
temperature data, 5) HadSST2 sea surface
temperature data, 6) UAH lower troposphere
temperature data
series, 7) CDIAC data on release of anthropogene CO2, and 8) GWP data on volcanic eruptions.
There's a fundamental difference in the facts that — the instrumental records are formed from numbers that represent directly
temperatures — there are very many time
series of that type — it's possible to calculate (weighted)
averages and apply many tools of statistical analysis to them.
In a separate
series of questions, adults in the general public were asked whether or not there is solid evidence that the
average temperature of the earth has been getting warmer over the past few decades.
So while it was a generally warmer (and drier) than usual winter it also wasn't the warmest ever, with the official NIWA statement being «The nation - wide mean
temperature was 1.2 °C above the winter
average, based on NIWA's seven - station
temperature series, making this the warmest winter on record since 1909.»
The Seven Station
series, adjustments for which were re-analysed by the NIWA in 2010, estimates New Zealand's
average annual
temperature has increased by 1C since 1909.
The striking consistency between the time
series of observed
average global
temperature observations and simulated values with both natural and anthropogenic forcing (Figure 9.5) was instrumental in convincing me (and presumably others) of the IPCC's attribution argument.
That allows for comparisons of time
series of different overall
temperature levels and that's necessary for the use of
average temperatures in the way they have done.
«all of the coupled climate models used in the IPCC AR4 reproduce the time
series for the 20th century of globally
averaged surface
temperature anomalies; yet they have different feedbacks and sensitivities and produce markedly different simulations of the 21st century climate.»
Fig 11
Average of Danish coastal
temperature series from original data and then the 5 longer
temperature series made available by DMI for the public and climate science including BEST.
Based on the Cohen et al paper it's likely that leaving out the most volatile data
series would in the present case result in a time
series where warming continues with less plateauing than we see in the existing data on global
average surface
temperature.
Or maybe, «As shown in Figures 1.4 and 1.5, since the end of the 1992 Pinatubo volcano, models have predicted a steady upward trend in global
average temperatures, but the observed
series have been comparatively trendless, and thus the range of model warming predictions since the early 1990s can be seen to have been biased towards more warming than was subsequently observed.»
Because the temp
series have had more plastic surgery than Heidi Montag Here's the actual amount of annual
temperature change when based on the
average of day to day difference between today's warming and tonight's cooling.
The longer the period over which trends are computed, the more these naturally occurring fluctuations in the
temperature time
series tend to
average out.
When we construct a global
temperature time
series we are making the implicit assumption that regional variations will cancel out when
averaged, giving a globally - representative result.