Sentences with phrase «average the models simulate»

Not exact matches

The researchers also used a statistical model to simulate costs and health effects of CGM use over the average expected lifetime of patients.

In a study set to come out in Nature tomorrow, an international group of scientists reports that they simulated atmospheric behavior using several different models and used them to forecast anthropogenically driven changes in average annual rainfall at different latitudes from 1925 to 1999.

One looked at the historical temperature record and compared how often such severe heat waves occurred a century ago versus today using 3 - day averages; the other used climate models that simulate a world with and without warming to see how the odds of such an event shifted.

Figure 3 is a similar graphic to that presented in Meehl et al. (2004), comparing the average global surface warming simulated by the model using natural forcings only (blue), anthropogenic forcings only (red), and the combination of the two (gray).

EBRI has recently used its Retirement Security Projection Model to simulate the results of benefit accrual freezes in traditional final average plans as well as various scenarios with respect to cash balance plans.

EBRI has recently used it Retirement Security Projection Model to simulate the results of benefit accrual freezes in traditional final average plans as well as various scenarios with respect to cash balance plans.

The two maps below, produced for the study by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory at Princeton, are based on a climate model comparing the production of strong hurricanes in conditions mimicking the current climate (basically, average climate conditions from 1980 to 2006) with hurricane production in conditions simulating those projected for the final two decades of the century.

Interestingly, the models that best simulate the recent past of these energy exchanges between the planet and its surroundings tend to project greater - than - average warming in the future.

When increasing CO2 is added, their models can simulate average global warming since the 1970s.

In «panel a» there appears to be quite a bit of agreement between modeled and observed global temperature from 1861 to the present and thus this seems to provide compelling visual support for climate models» ability to simulate / project global average temperature in the future.

It is still the case that observations are more - or-less in the middle of the model simulations, but it can now be seen that the range of simulated values for absolute global average temperature is pretty large (~ 2.5 C).

On average, models simulate more than twice the observed warming over the relevant period.

«Height - resolved measurements of specific humidity (q) and relative humidity (RH) are obtained from NASA's satellite - borne Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS)... The water - vapor feedback implied by these observations is strongly positive, with an average magnitude of λ q = 2.04 W / m2 / K, similar to that simulated by climate models.»

As I understand it, a GCM which is not ocean coupled should not be necessary for a model which is only attempting to simulate a CO2 - Temperature response as an average for the planet (a 0 - D model).

Current computer models can faithfully simulate many of the important aspects of the global climate system, such as changes in global average temperature over many decades; the march of the seasons on large spatial scales; and how the climate responds to large - scale forcing, like a large volcanic eruption.

And in both cases the 30 - year average sea surface temperature as simulated by the GISS models is too high by about 0.6 deg C.

It is evident from Figure 2.3 that globally averaged temperature fluctuations associated with El Niño tend to be larger aloft than at the surface, and this behavior is well - simulated in numerical models.

Larger interannual variations are seen in the observations than in the ensemble mean model simulation of the 20th century because the ensemble averaging process filters out much of the natural internal interannual variability that is simulated by the models.

Global solar irradiance reconstruction [48 — 50] and ice - core based sulfate (SO4) influx in the Northern Hemisphere [51] from volcanic activity (a); mean annual temperature (MAT) reconstructions for the Northern Hemisphere [52], North America [29], and the American Southwest * expressed as anomalies based on 1961 — 1990 temperature averages (b); changes in ENSO - related variability based on El Junco diatom record [41], oxygen isotopes records from Palmyra [42], and the unified ENSO proxy [UEP; 23](c); changes in PDSI variability for the American Southwest (d), and changes in winter precipitation variability as simulated by CESM model ensembles 2 to 5 [43].

One of the consequences is that if you run multiple computer simulations of earth's climate, then average the results, the simulated ENSO events get scattered throughout time and end up being averaged out, so that the model average ends up looking like it doesn't have a strong ENSO impact even though the individual model runs do.

For terrestrial British Columbia, precipitation averages and extremes can be simulated more accurately within individual regions by using gridded downscaling to increase the resolution of both global and regional climate models.

For terrestrial British Columbia, precipitation averages and extremes can be simulated more accurately within individual regions by using gridded downscaling to increase the resolution of regional climate models.

The climate models considered on average simulate the amplitude of response to anthropogenic forcings well, increasing confidence in their projections of profound future Arctic climate change.

In this study, we run the impact model with a set of 11 different reduction factors between 5 % and 95 % applied to the return period (i.e., the average recurrence interval) of simulated discharge peaks.

We've calculated the trend in the global average surface temperature simulated to have occurred starting in every year since 1950 and ending in 2012 for every * run of every climate model used in the new IPCC report.

-LSB-...] simulated by those models to be, on average, in line with reality.

-- modelling procedure requires crude approximations over large grid cells, ignoring local climate and weather phenomena as large as hurricances — model projections are demonstrably unreliable at regional and local level: even those that appear to simulate the evolution of global temperature do so only by averaging hundreds of more or less wrong results for the grid cells.

Spencer and Braswell used a very simple climate model to simulate the global temperature variations averaged over the top 2000 meters of the global ocean during the period 1955 - 2011.

Still, throughout the entirely of the 35 - yr period (ending in 2013), the observed trend lies far below the model average simulated trend (additional information on the impact of the new Cowtan and Way adjustments on modeled / observed temperature comparison can be found here).

Whether the 0.17 °C / decade is significantly different from the climate model average simulated trend during that period of 0.23 °C / decade is discussed extensively below.

It does suggest that current models with an ECS of below 2.5 °C are poor at simulating the observed TLC reflection — SST relationship, but that may be unrelated to their lower than average sensitivity.

All six individual runs with bias - adjusted SST (only the average is shown) give simulated land air temperatures close to those observed so that internal model variability is small on decadal time - scales compared to the signal being sought.

None of these could have been caused by an increase in atmospheric CO2, Model projections of warming during recent decades have greatly exceeded what has been observed, The modelling community has openly acknowledged that the ability of existing models to simulate past climates is due to numerous arbitrary tuning adjustments, Observations show no statistically valid trends in flooding or drought, and no meaningful acceleration whatsoever of pre-existing long term sea level rise (about 6 inches per century) worldwide, Current carbon dioxide levels, around 400 parts per million are still very small compared to the averages over geological history, when thousands of parts per million prevailed, and when life flourished on land and in the oceans.

Whereas each model demonstrates some sort of multidecadal variability (which may or may not be of a reasonable amplitude or associated with the appropriate mechanisms), the ensemble averaging process filters out the simulated natural internal variability since there is no temporal synchronization in the simulated chaotic internal oscillations among the different ensemble members.

Look at the GHCN map of stations here: Some argue you need as few as 50 to 100 stations to determine a global average temperature, but that is not the objective of the models that strive to simulate interactions between each rectangle.

Radiative convective models in small domains, no matter what the resolution, do not simulate the spatial inhomogeneities and convective structures that occur in the tropics, and should not be thought of as providing quantitative simulations of tropically - averaged clouds (or relative humidity for that matter).