The figure above compares
the average track forecast errors in the Atlantic Ocean basin during the past six hurricane seasons for the most reliable computer models available to the National Hurricane Center during this period.
Not exact matches
This seems to be the growth
track the U.S. economy is on, with
forecast growth
averaging around 2 per cent and the unemployment rate remaining stubbornly high, in the 9 to 10 per cent range.
The PollyVote combined
forecast,
averaging across
forecast types, appears to have a good
track record for US presidential elections, and their analysis suggests that citizen
forecasts and prediction markets typically outperform the polls in the US.
The HFIP aims to cut the
average errors of hurricane
track and intensity
forecasts by 20 percent within five years and by 50 percent by 2019, within a seven - day
forecast period.
During the period from 2003 to 2008, the
average storm
track forecast had an error that was down to less than 200 miles at 72 hours, and less than 100 miles at 48 hours.
I understand your point but please keep in mind that the
average hurricane
forecast track error three days out is on the order of 300 miles (thus the «cone of error» indicated on NHC charts).
According to NOAA, the specific goals of the HFIP are to reduce the
average errors of both hurricane
track and intensity
forecasts by 20 % within five years and 50 % in 10 years, with a
forecast period out to seven days.