Is gold a prototypical hedge (based on
average uncorrelated or negatively correlated behavior) and safe haven (based on uncorrelated or negatively correlated behavior during a market crash)?
For this the standard deviation of the monthly
averaged uncorrelated or white noise of flux might need to be around ~ 2.5 W / m ^ 2 a figure 2 - 4 times the values Isaac gave.
Not exact matches
They apply this analysis to definitions of a hedge (safe haven) as an asset that is
uncorrelated or negatively correlated with another asset or portfolio on
average (in times of market stress or turmoil).
They ran statistical analyses to uncover the risk of having two diseases together, identifying pairs of diseases for which the percentage of people who had both was higher than would be expected if the diseases were
uncorrelated — in other words, a patient who had one disease was more likely than the
average person to have the other.
The ratio of these volatilities informs how much of the region - specific variation — the volatility
uncorrelated to the global component — can be diversified by simply
averaging an equity strategy across countries.
Hopefully, a great story represents an above
average long - term growth opportunity (or a catalyst, and / or a lower risk /
uncorrelated investment), a great stock ensures you invest in a company & management team which can actually leverage, exploit & deliver genuine long - term shareholder value from this opportunity, while a great price requires you exercise the patience to buy (& sell) at the right time.
In summary, we have generalised the linear fitting f (x) including constant σ (x) to a non-linear fit f (x), σ (x), yet ensuring that the
average σ (x) is obtained from the
uncorrelated ensemble.
Suppose for the sake of argument that the Atlantic internal variations are
uncorrelated with the Indo - pacific, but that the latter, becuase it provides the deepest, most intense convection on
average, controls the tropical tropospheric temperatures above the boundary layer (which we think of as being uniform horizontally).
So the error in the monthly
average will be at most 0.2 / √ 60 = 0.03 ºC and this will be
uncorrelated with the value for any other station or the value for any other month.»
By
averaging over the runs, the noise (which is
uncorrelated from one run to another)
averages out, and what is left is an estimate of the forced signal and its uncertainty.