One potential reason for this difference was that Brown and Fogel [40] modeled the treatment - runoff relationship to be constant over time, 18 mm (0.71 inches), and did not evaluate variability in precipitation but instead assumed
average winter precipitation of 396 mm (15.6 inches).
Below -
average winter precipitation was observed across parts of the Great Basin, Upper Midwest, Mid-South, Great Lakes, and Mid-Atlantic.
Average winter precipitation has decreased by 0.9 inches (2.3 cm), which can mostly be attributed to natural variability and an increase in El Niño events, especially in the western and central parts of the state.
For example, below -
average winter precipitation can lead to smaller mountain snowpack volumes, which tend to result in shorter duration spring runoff (Hamlet and Lettenmaier 1999; Stewart et al. 2004; Moore et al. 2007; Whitfield 2013).
Despite a near -
average winter precipitation total for California, Oregon, and Washington, the record warmth caused most of the precipitation to fall as rain and not snow, which had implications on the drought intensification and water resource crisis during the warm months.
Not exact matches
The researchers found that
winter precipitation and
average runoff - season temperatures varied from drought to drought.
If the temperatures during the runoff season — March to July — were cooler than
average, streamflow was higher than expected on the basis of
winter precipitation alone, the team found.
However, when runoff - season temperatures were above
average, streamflow was less than expected on the basis of
winter precipitation.
The Alaska
winter precipitation total was 7.85 inches, 0.30 inch below
average, and ranked near the median value in the 1925 - 2015 record.
During El Niño episodes, Montana tends to experience warmer - than -
average temperatures and below -
average precipitation, especially during the
winter and spring.
Why It Matters: On
average, atmospheric rivers hit the western United States only a few times each
winter, but they transport significant amounts of moisture that converges in the mountains producing heavy
precipitation.
In Montana, El Niño
winters receive roughly 70 - 90 % of normal
precipitation, and both
winter and summer are warmer than
average (Figures 2 - 5 and 2 - 6)(NWSb undated; Higgins et al. 2007).
Northwestern Montana receives an
average of 9.4 inches (23.9 cm) of
winter precipitation, but locally, and at higher elevations within the mountains, this value can increase to greater than 20 inches (50.8 cm).
The
average statewide
precipitation during
winter is 3.3 inches (8.4 cm), though it varies considerably across the state.
However, the
precipitation barely equaled the
average in the state, despite El Niño - driven storms during this
winter.
Since 1896,
winter (January - February)
precipitation has risen more than 11 inches and the
average temperature has increased 1.6 degrees Fahrenheit, mostly due to higher
winter lows.
Model projections for
precipitation changes are less certain than those for temperature.12, 2 Under a higher emissions scenario (A2), global climate models (GCMs) project
average winter and spring
precipitation by late this century (2071 - 2099) to increase 10 % to 20 % relative to 1971 - 2000, while changes in summer and fall are not expected to be larger than natural variations.
Average snowfall is influenced by a resort's elevation and the frequency of
winter storms and
precipitation.
Precipitation averages between 90 and 100 cm · yr − 1 with more in the spring than summer or
winter.
The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of the NAO on projected changes in
winter (December - March
average) terrestrial surface air temperature (SAT) and
precipitation (P) over the next 30 — 50 years.
The «timeless» Farmers» Almanac says, «the Southeast will see below normal
winter temperatures with an unseasonable chill reaching as far south as the Gulf Coast, with above -
average precipitation.»
2: Our Changing Climate, Key Messages 5 and 6).4, 10 A range of model projections for the end of this century under a higher emissions scenario (A2),
averaged over the region, suggests about 5 % to 20 % (25th to 75th percentile of model projections) increases in
winter precipitation.
Global solar irradiance reconstruction [48 — 50] and ice - core based sulfate (SO4) influx in the Northern Hemisphere [51] from volcanic activity (a); mean annual temperature (MAT) reconstructions for the Northern Hemisphere [52], North America [29], and the American Southwest * expressed as anomalies based on 1961 — 1990 temperature
averages (b); changes in ENSO - related variability based on El Junco diatom record [41], oxygen isotopes records from Palmyra [42], and the unified ENSO proxy [UEP; 23](c); changes in PDSI variability for the American Southwest (d), and changes in
winter precipitation variability as simulated by CESM model ensembles 2 to 5 [43].
Precipitation anomaly for
winter, spring, summer and autumn 2017 relative to the respective seasonal
average for the period 1981 - 2010.
As the climate of the Pacific Northwest warms, more
winter precipitation is falling as rain, compared with historical
averages.2 With declining snowpack in Oregon's Cascade Mountains, peak stream flows are occurring earlier, and summer flows are declining.2 These changes are expected to continue as heat - trapping emissions grow, putting more stress on already endangered salmon that return to the Columbia and other rivers in the region to spawn.2
The
winter season brought much below
average precipitation in most of the European region.
The study predicts
average annual temperatures in New York state will rise by 4 to 9 degrees by 2080 and
precipitation will rise by 5 to 15 percent, with most of it in the
winter....
By 2080 the prediction is that
average temperatures could be 5 - 9 Fahrenheit warmer than they are now with more
precipitation in the
winter and sprint and less in summer.
A positive NAO index, which leads to Atlantic depressions following a northerly course over Europe, bringing mild and rainy
winters — is accompanied with higher air pressure over southern Europe — and clearly below
average precipitation in Spain.
First point, a long known fact is that the upper midwest (meaning, the northern tier, west of the 25 inch annual
average rainfall line) has a Summer
precipitation maximum, so dry
winters can indeed be expected.
Mixed - Humid - A mixed - humid and warm - humid climate is defined as a region that receives more than 20 inches of annual
precipitation with approximately 4,500 cooling degree days (50 °F basis) or greater and less than approximately 6,300 cooling degree days (50 °F basis) and less than approximately 5,400 heating degree days (65 °F basis) and where the
average monthly outdoor temperature drops below 45 °F during the
winter months.
A warm - dry and mixed - dry climate is defined as a region that receives less than 20 inches of annual
precipitation with approximately 4,500 cooling degree days (50 °F basis) or greater and less than approximately 6,300 cooling degree days (50 °F basis) and less than approximately 5,400 heating degree days (65 °F basis) and where the
average monthly outdoor temperature drops below 45 °F during the
winter months.
According to the National Weather Service, there is a 50 to 55 percent chance El Niño will bring unusually cold temperatures and above - median
precipitation to the southern portion of the U.S. this
winter, and above -
average temperatures and below - median
precipitation to the northern regions.