Recent model results, by contrast, suggest that significant impacts will persist for hundreds of thousands of years after emissions cease;» Matthews and Caldeira (2008): «We show first that a single pulse of carbon released into the atmosphere increases globally
averaged surface temperature by an amount that remains approximately constant for several centuries, even in the absence of additional emissions.»
Third, in the absence of any feedbacks except for temperature itself, doubling carbon dioxide would increase the global
average surface temperature by about 1.8 F. And fourth, global temperatures have been rising for roughly the past century and have so far increased by about 1.4 F.
England and his colleagues calculated that the stronger trade winds have reduced the global
average surface temperature by 0.1 - 0.2 degrees Celsius (0.18 - 0.36 degrees Fahrenheit)-- enough, they write, «to account for much of the hiatus in surface warming observed since 2001.»
Nothing, right... except when you consider that the radiative forcing due to doubling of the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide is only about 3.7 W / m ², and that's expected to change
the average surface temperature by about 3 °C, eventually ³.
Not exact matches
Most scientists and climatologists agree that weird weather is at least in part the result of global warming — a steady increase in the
average temperature of the
surface of the Earth thought to be caused
by increased concentrations of greenhouse gasses produced
by human activity.
Because the sulfate haze reflects a portion of the sun's energy back into space, the
average temperature on Earth's
surface drops
by as much as 0.5 or even 1 degree Celsius.
With an El Niño now under way — meaning warm
surface waters in the Pacific are releasing heat into the atmosphere — and predicted to intensify, it looks as if the global
average surface temperature could jump
by around 0.1 °C in just one year.
The study found that after the initial decrease of solar radiation in 2020, globally
averaged surface air
temperature cooled
by up to several tenths of a degree Celsius.
The planet's
average surface temperature has risen about 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit (1.0 degree Celsius) since the late - 19th century, a change largely driven
by increased carbon dioxide and other human - made emissions into the atmosphere.
El Niño is characterized
by a large area of warmer - than -
average ocean
surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific.
As world leaders hold climate talks in Paris, research shows that land
surface temperatures may rise
by an
average of almost 8C
by 2100, if significant efforts are not made to counteract climate change.
Abstract: Analyses of underground
temperature measurements from 358 boreholes in eastern North America, central Europe, southern Africa, and Australia indicate that, in the 20th century, the
average surface temperature of Earth has increased
by about 0.5 degrees C and that the 20th century has been the warmest of the past five centuries.
Expressed as a global
average,
surface temperatures have increased
by about 0.74 °C over the past hundred years (between 1906 and 2005; see Figure 1).
seems to be incompatible with the statement from his Annual review paper from 2000 (see abstract below) that: «The
average surface temperature of the continents has increased
by about 1.0 K over the past 5 centuries; half of this increase has occurred in the twentieth century alone.»
By showing that (a) there are no common physical laws between the warming phenomenon in glass houses and the fictitious atmospheric greenhouse effects, (b) there are no calculations to determine an
average surface temperature of a planet, (c) the frequently mentioned difference of 33 C is a meaningless number calculated wrongly, (d) the formulas of cavity radiation are used inappropriately, (e) the assumption of a radiative balance is unphysical, (f) thermal conductivity and friction must not be set to zero, the atmospheric greenhouse conjecture is falsified
The annually -
averaged temperature for ocean
surfaces around the world was 0.74 °C (1.33 °F) higher than the 20th century
average, easily breaking the previous record of 2014
by 0.11 °C (0.20 °F).
These rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations have led to an increase in global
average temperatures of ~ 0.2 °C decade — 1, much of which has been absorbed
by the oceans, whilst the oceanic uptake of atmospheric CO2 has led to major changes in
surface ocean pH (Levitus et al., 2000, 2005; Feely et al., 2008; Hoegh - Guldberg and Bruno, 2010; Mora et al., 2013; Roemmich et al., 2015).
With the contribution of such record warmth at year's end and with 10 months of the year record warm for their respective months, including the last 8 (January was second warmest for January and April was third warmest), the
average global
temperature across land and ocean
surface areas for 2015 was 0.90 °C (1.62 °F) above the 20th century
average of 13.9 °C (57.0 °F), beating the previous record warmth of 2014
by 0.16 °C (0.29 °F).
Across the world's oceans, the September — November
average sea
surface temperature was 0.84 °C (1.51 °F) above the 20th century
average of 16.0 °C (60.7 °F), the highest for September — November on record, surpassing the previous record set last year
by 0.27 °C (0.15 °F).
For the oceans, the November global sea
surface temperature was 0.84 °C (1.51 °F) above the 20th century
average of 15.8 °C (60.4 °F), the highest for November on record, surpassing the previous record set last year
by 0.20 °C (0.36 °F).
Separately, the global land
surface temperature was 1.89 °C (3.40 °F) above
average, the highest on record for December, surpassing the previous record set in 2006
by 0.48 °C (0.86 °F).
The
average position of the upper - level ridges of high pressure and troughs of low pressure — depicted
by positive and negative 500 - millibar height anomalies on the December 2015 map — is generally reflected
by areas of positive and negative
temperature anomalies at the
surface, respectively.
The
average land
surface temperature was also record high, at 1.27 °C (2.29 °F) above
average, surpassing the previous record of 2010
by 0.15 °C (0.27 °F).
The December 2015 globally -
averaged temperature across land and ocean
surfaces was 1.11 °C (2.00 °F) above the 20th century
average of 12.2 °C (54.0 °F), the highest for any month since records began in 1880, surpassing the previous all - time record set two months ago in October
by 0.12 °C (0.21 °F).
The June
temperature for the mid-troposphere (roughly 2 miles to 6 miles above the
surface) was the fifth highest for June in the 1979 — 2016 record, at 0.50 °F above the 1981 — 2010
average, as analyzed
by UAH.
The March — May globally
averaged sea
surface temperature was 1.40 °F above the 20th century
average of 61.0 °F — the highest for March — May in the 1880 — 2016 record, surpassing the previous record of 2015
by 0.20 °F.
The June globally
averaged sea
surface temperature was 1.39 °F above the 20th century monthly
average of 61.5 °F — the highest global ocean
temperature for June in the 1880 — 2016 record, surpassing the previous record set in 2015
by 0.05 °F.
The June - August
temperature for the mid-troposphere (roughly 2 miles to 6 miles above the
surface) was the third highest for June - August in the 1979 — 2016 record, at 0.65 °F above the 1981 — 2010
average, as analyzed
by UAH.
The June — August globally
averaged sea
surface temperature was 1.39 °F above the 20th century
average of 61.5 °F the highest for June — August in the 1880 — 2016 record, surpassing the previous record of 2015
by 0.02 °F.
The May globally
averaged sea
surface temperature was 1.37 °F above the 20th century monthly
average of 61.3 °F — the highest global ocean
temperature for May in the 1880 — 2016 record, surpassing the previous record set in 2015
by 0.09 °F.
The April globally
averaged sea
surface temperature was 1.44 °F above the 20th century monthly
average of 60.9 °F — the highest global ocean
temperature for April in the 1880 — 2016 record, surpassing the previous record set in 2015
by 0.25 °F and besting 1998, the last time a similar strength El Niño occurred,
by 0.43 °F.
The July globally
averaged sea
surface temperature was 1.42 °F above the 20th century monthly
average of 61.5 °F — the highest global ocean
temperature for July in the 1880 — 2016 record, surpassing the previous record set in 2015
by 0.07 °F.
The July
temperature for the mid-troposphere (roughly 2 miles to 6 miles above the
surface) tied with 2010 as the second highest for July in the 1979 — 2016 record, at 0.67 °F above the 1981 - 2010
average, as analyzed
by UAH.
The May
temperature for the mid-troposphere (roughly 2 miles to 6 miles above the
surface) was the second highest for May in the 1979 — 2016 record, at 0.83 °F above the 1981 — 2010
average, as analyzed
by UAH.
Earth's
average surface temperature in 2017 placed as the second or third highest on record, according to new analyses
by NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
The September globally
averaged sea
surface temperature was 1.33 °F above the 20th century monthly
average of 61.1 °F, tying with 2014 as the second highest global ocean
temperature for September in the 1880 — 2016 record, behind 2015
by 0.16 °F.
According to the results, the area covered
by carbon - rich frozen ground in the Arctic is expected to shrink
by 4m square km for every extra degree that global
average surface temperature rises.
Actual sea
surface water
temperatures close to shore at Mangamaunu can vary
by several degrees compared with these open water
averages.
Actual sea
surface water
temperatures close to shore at DuckPool can vary
by several degrees compared with these open water
averages.
Actual sea
surface water
temperatures close to shore at Nanjizal can vary
by several degrees compared with these open water
averages.
Actual sea
surface water
temperatures close to shore at Coxos can vary
by several degrees compared with these open water
averages.
Actual sea
surface water
temperatures close to shore at Dabki can vary
by several degrees compared with these open water
averages.
Further,
by global warming I refer explicitly to the historical record of global
average surface temperatures.
Global
average surface temperatures increased on
average by about 0.6 degrees Celsius over the period 1956 - 2006.
It is extremely likely that more than half of the observed increase in global
average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused
by the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and other anthropogenic forcings together.
AR5: It is extremely likely that more than half of the observed increase in global
average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused
by the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and other anthropogenic forcings together.
More than 95 % of the 5 yr running mean of the
surface temperature change since 1850 can be replicated
by an integration of the sunspot data (as a proxy for ocean heat content), departing from the
average value over the period of the sunspot record (~ 40SSN), plus the superimposition of a ~ 60 yr sinusoid representing the observed oceanic oscillations.
By showing that (a) there are no common physical laws between the warming phenomenon in glass houses and the fictitious atmospheric greenhouse effects, (b) there are no calculations to determine an
average surface temperature of a planet, (c) the frequently mentioned difference of 33 C is a meaningless number calculated wrongly, (d) the formulas of cavity radiation are used inappropriately, (e) the assumption of a radiative balance is unphysical, (f) thermal conductivity and friction must not be set to zero, the atmospheric greenhouse conjecture is falsified
Item 8 could be confusing in having so many messages: «It is extremely likely that more than half of the observed increase in global
average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused
by the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas... The best estimate of the human - induced contribution to warming is similar to the observed warming over this period....
Finally, to revisit the question originally posed @ 203: Assuming the IEO2011 Reference case of «1 trillion metric tons of additional cumulative energy - related carbon dioxide emissions between 2009 and 2035», and given that this case equates to following RCP8.5 until 2035 as previously demonstrated @ 408, what increase in
average global
surface temperature relative to pre-industrial would result
by 2035?