[2] The Historical simulations have
an average temperature anomaly of 0.84 °C for 1996 — 2005 relative to 1850, whereas HadCRUT4v4 shows an increase of 0.73 °C from 1850 — 1859 to 1996 — 2005, and Figure 7 of Miller et al. 2014 shows consistently greater warming for GISS - E2 - R than per GISTEMP since 2000.
Not exact matches
The researchers also looked at deviations
of daily
temperatures from seasonal
averages in trying to determine the effect
of anomalies on crime rates.
As I understand it, they refer to the
anomaly versus the previous 100 years
of global
average temperatures.
Time series
of temperature anomaly for all waters warmer than 14 °C show large reductions in interannual to inter-decadal variability and a more spatially uniform upper ocean warming trend (0.12 Wm − 2 on
average) than previous results.
Looking at the June
temperature anomaly map, we find very large zones
of 2 - 4 C above
average readings running up toward the Northern Hemisphere Pole.
The available timeseries
of global - scale
temperature anomalies are calculated with respect to the 20th century
average, while the mapping tool displays global - scale
temperature anomalies with respect to the 1981 - 2010 base period.
Figure 2: The data (green) are the
average of the NASA GISS, NOAA NCDC, and HadCRUT4 monthly global surface
temperature anomaly datasets from January 1970 through November 2012, with linear trends for the short time periods Jan 1970 to Oct 1977, Apr 1977 to Dec 1986, Sep 1987 to Nov 1996, Jun 1997 to Dec 2002, and Nov 2002 to Nov 2012 (blue), and also showing the far more reliable linear trend for the full time period (red).
See e.g. http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata/ZonAnn.Ts+dSST.txt — at 64 - 90N the GISS land - ocean
temperature index for 1937 - 8 reached an
average anomaly of +1.29 C, which was not surpassed again for a 2 - year period until 2002 - 3 (+1.33 C)
The January — December map
of temperature anomalies shows that warmer - than -
average temperatures occurred across the vast majority
of the globe during 2015, combining to bring overall record warmth for 2015, at 0.90 °C (1.62 °F) above the 20th century
average.
(1) The warm sea surface
temperatures are not just some short - term
anomaly but are part
of a long - term observed warming trend, in which ocean
temperatures off the US east coast are warming faster than global
average temperatures.
The
average position
of the upper - level ridges
of high pressure and troughs
of low pressure — depicted by positive and negative 500 - millibar height
anomalies on the December 2015 map — is generally reflected by areas
of positive and negative
temperature anomalies at the surface, respectively.
The highest
temperature anomalies (more than 5 °C / 9 °F above the 1981 — 2010
average) were observed across much
of northern Eurasia and eastern North America, driving much the global record warmth.
To remove short - term noise, they plotted a 12 month running
average of Global Tropospheric
Temperature Anomaly (GTTA, the light grey line) and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI, the black line).
Any way you look it, from the Climate Prediction Center Outlook through May, to the ongoing warm
anomalies in land and sea surface
temperatures, much
of the United States is likely to find above
average temperatures in the coming months.
But as you can see in the NASA figure above, the record breaking heat wasn't uniformly distributed — it was particularly pronounced at the top
of the world, showing
temperature anomalies above 4 degrees Celsius (7.2 degrees Fahrenheit) higher than the 1951 to 1980
average in this region.
Which
of the various data sets
of average annual global
temperature anomaly is closest to the truth?
The center reports
temperature anomalies at this altitude
of «more than 6 degrees Celsius (13 degrees Fahrenheit) above
average» for the month.
Alaska is an
anomaly, with
temperatures rising an
average of 3 degrees in the last 60 years, twice as fast as the continental U.S. Scientists predict that
temperatures will rise another two to four degrees by 2050.
The above diagram helps show that if a station were removed from the record or did not report data for some period
of time, the
average anomaly would not change significantly, whereas the overall
average temperature could change significantly, depending on which station dropped out
of the record.
[Response: Hansen et al. look at seasonal
anomalies, especially those for the
average temperature of June - July - August.
For example since the
temperature anomalies used in the analyses are local seasonal
averages, then an increase in the value
of a
temperature anomaly might arise simply from a shift in the local
temperature distribution.
global
average sfc T
anomalies [as] indicative
of anomalies in outgoing energy... is not well supported over the historical
temperature record in the model ensemble or more recent satellite observations
Human induced trend has two components, namely (a) greenhouse effect [this includes global and local / regional component] and (b) non-greenhouse effect [local / regional component]-- according to IPCC (a) is more than half
of global
average temperature anomaly wherein it also includes component
of volcanic activities, etc that comes under greenhouse effect; and (b) contribution is less than half — ecological changes component but this is biased positive side by urban - heat - island effect component as the met network are concentrated in urban areas and rural - cold - island effect is biased negative side as the met stations are sparsely distributed though rural area is more than double to urban area.
The combination
of these factors means it's much easier to interpolate
anomalies and estimate the global mean, than it would be if you were
averaging absolute
temperatures.
But even then the «fraction
of the
anomaly due to global warming» is somewhat arbitrary because it depends on the chosen baseline for defining the
anomaly — is it the
average July
temperature, or typical previous summer heat waves (however defined), or the
average summer
temperature, or the
average annual
temperature?
Global
average temperature anomaly consists
of: 1.
Ranked warmest years in the series going back to 1914 are: # 2006 9.73 °C # 2003 9.51 °C # 2004 9.48 °C # 2002 9.48 °C # 2005 9.46 °C Mean
temperature, sunshine and rainfall for regions
of the UK compared with the long - term
average UK regional
averages for 2006,
anomalies with respect to 1971 - 2000 Region Mean temp Sunshine Rainfall Actual [°C] Anom [°C] Actual [hours] Anom [%] Actual [mm] Anom [%] UK 9.7 +1.1 1,507 113 1,176 104 England 10.6 +1.2 1,638 112 8,51 102 Wales 9.9 +1.0 1,534 113 1,420 99 Scotland 8.3 +1.1 1,300 112 1,652 109 N Ireland 9.6 +1.0 1,409 115 1,156 104
Yesterday, the analysis showed that Michigan experienced
temperatures that were 4 — 5 climatological
anomalies warmer than
average (4 - sigma to 5 - sigma), the type
of extreme that occurs between once every 43 years and once every 4779 years.
Anyhow, I question the validity
of FFT analysis
of the final GISS and HadCRUT3
temperature anomaly products — because they have been so «
averaged» as to be suspect for that purpose.
(G) Northern Hemisphere
average proxy
temperature anomalies (10 - year means) reconstructed by Mann et al. (26) on the basis
of two approaches (CPS, composite plus scale; EIV, error in variables) and by Moberg et al..
I was able to replicate the NASA / GISS land -
temperature index surprisingly closely with a pretty crude implementation
of the standard
temperature anomaly gridding /
averaging procedure.
, they just say «
average») with a surface
temperature anomaly of GISS with base value 1951 - 1980!
As a final step, after all station records within 1200 km
of a given grid point have been
averaged, we subtract the 1951 - 1980 mean
temperature for the grid point to obtain the estimated
temperature anomaly time series
of that grid point.
As I understand it, they refer to the
anomaly versus the previous 100 years
of global
average temperatures.
So a period (
of three months say) that includes the monsoon will show
average temperatures that are dampened by the presence
of the monsoon and I think I'm correct in guessing that this would show up as an
anomaly within your iid null hypothesis.
I have a question about the availability
of global monthly
average temperatures (not
anomalies).
While
anomalies are the darling
of staticians, where the base line environmental
temperatures cross the freezing point / melt point
of water, the
anomalies from those
temperature data sets are just the
average of nonsense.
I guess the
anomaly is calculated by subtracting te long - year
average temperature from the measured
average of any given year.
Furthermore, time series
of annual
average temperature and rainfall
anomalies in temperate Australia are anti-correlated.
Global
average surface
temperature anomalies, 2000 - 2100, as projected by MAGICC run with the original RCPs as well as with the set
of RCPs modified to reflect the EPA 30 % emissions reductions from U.S power plants.
(The Arctic region as a whole is expected to experience a [frankly quite insane]
temperature anomaly in the range
of 4 degrees Celsius above
average by January 3rd
of 2016.
All we know for sure is that it hasn't warmed (according to the «globally and annually
averaged land and sea surface
temperature anomaly» record
of HadCRUT) since the end
of 1997.
to be consistent, either we should have 100 points measuring the
temperature on a specific hour
of the day on mountains and in the ocean, and no
average world
temperature, or we should do the same with CO2, measure high for the day, low for the day,
average, and make a global
average from many regions, and then define an
anomaly on the same interval as the
temperature anomaly in order to be consistent.
Figure 1: Twenty - year smoothed plots
of tree - ring width (dashed line) and tree - ring density (thick solid line),
averaged across a network
of mid-northern latitude boreal forest sites and compared with equivalent - area
averages of mean April to September
temperature anomalies (thin solid line).
Air
temperatures at 925 millibar (about 3,000 ft above the surface) were mostly above
average over the Arctic Ocean, with positive
anomalies of 4 to 6º Celsius over the Chukchi and Bering seas on the Pacific side
of the Arctic, and over the East Greenland Sea on the Atlantic side.
Relatively (it's always relative changes that are most relevant to breaking the climate
averages) cool waters from the Caribbean have over recent weeks and months increasingly spread to the northeast, across the Atlantic Gulf Stream, creating a negative
temperature anomaly around the islands
of the Azores and reaching further to the British Isles and the North Sea, where sea water is low due to the very cold December.
:: An Anamoly describes the sum
of difference over a year, when this sum is added to the baseline
Temperature,
average annual global
Temperature for the year is described, when this figure is added to the population the
average is increased, if the
Anomaly is positive.
It compiles a diverse set
of sea surface (not deep water)
temperature proxies to estimate a spatially - weighted global
average temperature anomaly.
«To summarize - Using the 60 and 1000 year quasi repetitive patterns in conjunction with the solar data leads straightforwardly to the following reasonable predictions for Global SSTs 1 Continued modest cooling until a more significant
temperature drop at about 2016 - 17 2 Possible unusual cold snap 2021 - 22 3 Built in cooling trend until at least 2024 4 Temperature Hadsst3 moving average anomaly 2035 — 0.15 5Temperature Hadsst3 moving average anomaly 2100 — 0.5 6 General Conclusion — by 2100 all the 20th century temperature rise will have been reversed, 7 By 2650 earth could possibly be back to the depths of the litt
temperature drop at about 2016 - 17 2 Possible unusual cold snap 2021 - 22 3 Built in cooling trend until at least 2024 4
Temperature Hadsst3 moving average anomaly 2035 — 0.15 5Temperature Hadsst3 moving average anomaly 2100 — 0.5 6 General Conclusion — by 2100 all the 20th century temperature rise will have been reversed, 7 By 2650 earth could possibly be back to the depths of the litt
Temperature Hadsst3 moving
average anomaly 2035 — 0.15 5
Temperature Hadsst3 moving average anomaly 2100 — 0.5 6 General Conclusion — by 2100 all the 20th century temperature rise will have been reversed, 7 By 2650 earth could possibly be back to the depths of the litt
Temperature Hadsst3 moving
average anomaly 2100 — 0.5 6 General Conclusion — by 2100 all the 20th century
temperature rise will have been reversed, 7 By 2650 earth could possibly be back to the depths of the litt
temperature rise will have been reversed, 7 By 2650 earth could possibly be back to the depths
of the little ice age.
Claims made by sceptics that the effects
of the current ENO as it enters a negative episode, since last year, yielded
temperature anomalies much lower than in recent years (in fact, very much
average at near zero), have been waved away by alarmists claiming that they are the result
of «natural variability».