The Scafetta and West article on possible increase in total solar irradiance (
averaged over a solar cycle) is to be found here.
The trend left after
averaging over the solar cycle is even smaller.
The Scafetta and West article on possible increase in total solar irradiance (
averaged over a solar cycle) is to be found here.
how can a Sun that has constant TSI (
averaged over a solar cycle) during 1950 - 2000 play any role in the global warming that was at its strongest over that period
Certainly, but whether high or low, if the Sun is going to influence global warming then how can a Sun that has constant TSI (
averaged over a solar cycle) during 1950 - 2000 play any role in the global warming that was at its strongest over that period?
Not exact matches
For example, 2005 is near
solar minimum in the 11 year
cycle, and radiance now is about 1 - 2 W / m ^ 2 less than a few years ago, which means Pluto and Mars are getting LESS
solar radiance on the time scale of the atmosphere and polar cap changes, EVEN IF the radiance
averaged over the whole
cycle was higher.
The mean insolation at Earth orbit is about 1366 W / m ^ 2; the peak - to - peak variation
over the 11 year
solar cycle is about 3 W / m ^ 2; the authors discuss two running
averages derived from different satellite data sets and analysis derived by Willson and Mordvinov (2003) and Frohlich and Lean (1998) respectively.
Narrowly scoped, the present situation is either strictly caused by
solar variations (in which case I believe the «
solar variation» crowd will inappropriately gain credibility
over the next 10 to 20 years as we work through the next below
average solar cycle or two), or strictly caused by CO2 concentrations (in which case I believe the «CO2 concentrations» crowd will inappropriately lose credibility as the non-linear relationship (sensitivity is based on doublings, not linear increases) between increased CO2 concentrations, and forecasts for below
average solar cycles reduces the longer term upward trend in global temperatures).
The mean insolation at Earth orbit is about 1366 W / m ^ 2; the peak - to - peak variation
over the 11 year
solar cycle is about 3 W / m ^ 2; the authors discuss two running
averages derived from different satellite data sets and analysis derived by Willson and Mordvinov (2003) and Frohlich and Lean (1998) respectively.
ferd berple says: April 12, 2011 at 1:52 pm
Averaging temperature
over 30 years to yield climate pretty much guarantees you are not going to find any 11 year
solar cycles affecting the climate.
Averaging temperature
over 30 years to yield climate pretty much guarantees you are not going to find any 11 year
solar cycles affecting the climate.
The full amplitude of
solar cycle forcing is about 0.25 W / m2 [64], [71], but the reduction of
solar forcing due to the present weak
solar cycle is about half that magnitude as we illustrate below, so the energy imbalance measured during
solar minimum (0.58 W / m2) suggests an
average imbalance
over the
solar cycle of about 0.7 W / m2.
IF the sun really has started a couple of slower than
average solar cycles, and IF the current slight cooling trend continues or becomes even more pronounced
over the next couple of decades, we can bury the CAGW scare, along with all the other doomsday scenarios and scares that preceded it.
Well, you start by
averaging over at least one period of the
cycle; eg to cancel out day / night you take 24 hours, for summer / winter 12 months and for the
solar cycle 11 years.
Therefore, we assume that the existing proxies of the
solar activity
averaged over a two
solar cycles period can also describe the activity of the quiet Sun.
The natural causes of climate variations that have time scales (century, decadal; e.g. Schwabe sunspot
cycles,
average solar output during the satellite measuring era,, ENSO / PDO / AMO and the rest of the alphabet soup of «oscillations», volcanism) either don't capture energy
over multiple
cycles — if I push a child on a swing, his
average position doesn't move away from me — or are going in the wrong direction.