That being said, assume a 2 - 4 deg C increase in
Global avg temp and a doubling of pre-industrial GHG by the year 2100.
If the sun enters such a sustained period of low solar activity again, it could dampen the global
avg temp by between 0.1 and 0.4 deg (eg recent paper by Rahmstorf; KNMI climate science update).
But we just
increased avg temps by 1 degree, so the baseline has changed and the higher levels are too hot.
The graph confirms there has been no statistically significant increase in world's
avg temp since January 1997»
This is what the map of Aug 36 looks like today for
avg temps with the current baseline of 1981 - 2010.
I have yet to see your reply to my new post, where I outline that it is evident on physical grounds that the increase in
global avg temp is not merely random: A random increase would cause a negative energy imbalance or the extra energy would have to come from another segment of the climate system (eg the ocean, cryosphere, etc).
The 1 C change in
avg temp is a proxy for increases in extreme weather event, drought, etc which I do care about.)
Micro, If it is merely the result of a natural cycle, why is the next peak higher than the last peak (e.g.
the avg temp in 1998 is significantly greater than the peak temp in 1940)?