The phrase
"background variability" refers to the natural and expected changes or differences that occur over time in a given situation or environment. It indicates the normal fluctuations or variations that are considered normal and not caused by any specific events or factors.
Full definition
Variability with MJO characteristics (e.g., convection and wind anomalies of the correct spatial scale that propagate coherently eastward with realistic phase speeds) is simulated in many contemporary models (e.g., Sperber et al., 2005; Zhang, 2005), but this variability is typically not simulated to occur often enough or with sufficient strength so that the MJO stands out realistically above the
broadband background variability (Lin et al., 2006).
However, although this would weigh tropical regions more than polar ones, I think it's fair to say that the global mean surface value of T ^ 4 is also increasing far
beyond background variability.
I have never been someone to deny the existence of global warming; however, I maintain that the scientific community can not to any significant degree determine what portion of global warming is carbon - related and what is
background variability in the Holocene.
NIPCC's conclusion, drawn from its extensive review of the scientific evidence, is that any human global climate impact is within
the background variability of the natural climate system and is not dangerous.
Climate change activists had, the paper said, found that the «trend signal» had not yet risen «above
the background variability of natural processes.»